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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| GollumGekko | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (1343–637, n=1980) | 71% (10–4, n=14) | 48% (12896–14023, n=26919) | 45% (537–650, n=1187) |
| Consensus PnL | $236K | $4.4M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #774 + pinned | was PM monthly #11 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 78% (120 of 153 open) | no open consensus position | 46% (11 of 24 open) | 79% (57 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 2114 at avg 75¢, ROI +3% | 100% of 10 at avg 49¢, ROI +52% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 12% of 377) | 0% | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 4% (won 57% of 80) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 76% of 145) | 50% (won 100% of 5) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 72% (won 98% of 1512) | 0% | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | GollumGekko | sainttroplay | RN1 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $159 | — | — | No $250K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.9K | — | — | No $34K |
| Spread: Commanders (-4.5) opposite sides · consensus Commanders | — | — | Eagles $2.3K | Commanders $32K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.6K | — | — | No $26K |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $1.3K | — | — | Yes $270K |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House same side · consensus Yes | Yes $14K | — | — | Yes $170K |
| Spread: Commanders (-6.5) same side · consensus Commanders | — | — | Commanders $3.6K | Commanders $161K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.1K | — | — | Yes $36K |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | Yes $787 | — | — | Yes $30K |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $457 | — | — | Yes $14K |