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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HerdoniaBreakTheBankRN1
Record (consensus markets)90% (982–109, n=1091)45% (526–640, n=1166)48% (12778–13831, n=26609)
Consensus PnL$57K$10.6M$13.4M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #496PM monthly #1PM monthly #24 + pinned
Sides with the consensus57% (29 of 51 open)70% (57 of 82 open)61% (91 of 148 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +48 pts n=371, ROI +48%
  • NFL +49 pts n=127, ROI +48%
  • NBA +46 pts n=226, ROI +41%
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 965 at avg 54¢, ROI +44%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢2% (won 100% of 17)10% (won 85% of 53)10% (won 56% of 2534)
Entries 30–50¢37% (won 99% of 353)36% (won 98% of 192)22% (won 94% of 5497)
Entries 50–70¢52% (won 100% of 497)35% (won 99% of 187)36% (won 99% of 8897)
Entries 70¢ and up10% (won 100% of 98)20% (won 100% of 107)31% (won 100% of 7736)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHerdoniaBreakTheBankRN1
Ravens vs. Bills
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $6.7KBills $387KRavens $727
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
Browns $13KBrowns $300KSteelers $91
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
Browns $1.1KBrowns $259KSteelers $3.6K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
Jets $11Raiders $105KJets $257
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $3.4KBills $35KBills $37
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Falcons $9.2KFalcons $8.6KBuccaneers $1.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Cardinals $440Cardinals $2.7KCowboys $644
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cardinals
—Cardinals $32KCowboys $21
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Vikings
Vikings $1.6K—Lions $1.6K
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Magic $52—Celtics $116
Raiders vs. Jets
same side · consensus Raiders
Raiders $656Raiders $234K—
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
Jaguars $73Jaguars $13K—
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $10K—Over $777
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $2.6K—Over $5
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $292—Under $319
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $47—Over $384
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $19—Under $228