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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
HerdoniaRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)90% (982–109, n=1091)48% (12778–13831, n=26609)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$57K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #496PM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus57% (29 of 51 open)61% (91 of 148 open)70% (57 of 82 open)
Strongest topics
  • MLB +48 pts n=371, ROI +48%
  • NFL +49 pts n=127, ROI +48%
  • NBA +46 pts n=226, ROI +41%
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won100% of 965 at avg 54¢, ROI +44%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢2% (won 100% of 17)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢37% (won 99% of 353)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢52% (won 100% of 497)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up10% (won 100% of 98)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

7 on the same side, 10 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketHerdoniaRN1BreakTheBank
Ravens vs. Bills
opposite sides · consensus Bills
Ravens $6.7KRavens $727Bills $387K
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Browns
Browns $13KSteelers $91Browns $300K
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
Browns $1.1KSteelers $3.6KBrowns $259K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
Jets $11Jets $257Raiders $105K
Spread: Bills (-3.5)
opposite sides · consensus Ravens
Ravens $3.4KBills $37Bills $35K
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
Falcons $9.2KBuccaneers $1.6KFalcons $8.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
Cardinals $440Cowboys $644Cardinals $2.7K
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cardinals
—Cowboys $21Cardinals $32K
Spread: Lions (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Vikings
Vikings $1.6KLions $1.6K—
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Magic $52Celtics $116—
Raiders vs. Jets
same side · consensus Raiders
Raiders $656—Raiders $234K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
Jaguars $73—Jaguars $13K
Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 54.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $10KOver $777—
Colts vs. Jaguars: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Under
Over $2.6KOver $5—
Raiders vs. Jets: O/U 46.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $292Under $319—
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 54.5
same side · consensus Over
Over $47Over $384—
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5
same side · consensus Over
Under $19Under $228—