← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PROBABILITYTRADER | BreakTheBank | 00gringo00 | ndb1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (974–1212, n=2186) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 75% (6–2, n=8) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) |
| Consensus PnL | -$161K | $11.0M | $3.5M | $4.1M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #666 | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #19 | PM monthly #69 |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 1 open) | 90% (148 of 164 open) | no open consensus position | 68% (49 of 72 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | NBA −3 pts, n=120 | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2442 at avg 40¢, ROI +3% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 22% (won 14% of 528) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 0% | 13% (won 16% of 160) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 51% (won 47% of 1238) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 0% | 20% (won 39% of 252) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 27% (won 70% of 671) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 100% (won 86% of 7) | 24% (won 57% of 306) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 0% (won 100% of 5) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 0% | 43% (won 93% of 540) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.