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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
RLWGBreakTheBankCORGII
Record (consensus markets)49% (5910–6260, n=12170)45% (526–640, n=1166)62% (393–245, n=638)
Consensus PnL$17K$10.6M$4.5M
Tracked asPM monthly #645PM monthly #1PM monthly #68
Sides with the consensus51% (26 of 51 open)73% (72 of 98 open)25% (1 of 4 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topic———
Settled positions, side won94% of 759 at avg 52¢, ROI +46%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55%
Entries under 30¢6% (won 50% of 46)10% (won 85% of 53)9% (won 92% of 36)
Entries 30–50¢25% (won 92% of 190)36% (won 98% of 192)56% (won 99% of 223)
Entries 50–70¢62% (won 98% of 473)35% (won 99% of 187)33% (won 100% of 133)
Entries 70¢ and up7% (won 100% of 50)20% (won 100% of 107)2% (won 100% of 7)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

11 on the same side, 3 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketRLWGBreakTheBankCORGII
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
opposite sides · consensus Magic
Celtics $19Magic $76K—
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $22Yes $51K—
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $45Yes $37K—
Chiefs vs. Broncos
same side · consensus Chiefs
Chiefs $3Chiefs $465K—
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
same side · consensus No
No $30No $411K—
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $14Yes $272K—
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus Yes
No $3No $184K—
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $6No $102K—
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
same side · consensus No
Yes $4Yes $77K—
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $4Yes $73K—
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $17No $35K—
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $6Yes $28K—
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
No $1No $10K—
Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
No $23No $2.4K—