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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| YoungAlphaGoat | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | 00gringo00 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 47% (352–396, n=748) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) | 65% (862–456, n=1318) | 75% (6–2, n=8) |
| Consensus PnL | $50K | $11.0M | $4.1M | $3.5M |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #885 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #69 | was PM monthly #19 |
| Sides with the consensus | 50% (2 of 4 open) | 87% (143 of 164 open) | 68% (48 of 71 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled | ||
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −12 pts, n=16 | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 32% of 734 at avg 29¢, ROI +1% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 86% of 7 at avg 59¢, ROI +25% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 66% (won 10% of 482) | 10% (won 82% of 56) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 9% (won 42% of 65) | 36% (won 98% of 198) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 0% |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 7% (won 65% of 49) | 35% (won 99% of 191) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 100% (won 86% of 7) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 93% of 138) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.