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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| alvahunter | BreakTheBank | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 34% (22–42, n=64) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 66% (875–457, n=1332) | 47% (14178–15785, n=29963) |
| Consensus PnL | -$1.7K | $11.0M | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #685 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #22 | PM monthly #18 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 85% (160 of 188 open) | 72% (91 of 127 open) | 56% (43 of 77 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | — | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 85% of 26 at avg 43¢, ROI +50% | 97% of 559 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 35% (won 78% of 9) | 10% (won 79% of 58) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 23% (won 83% of 6) | 36% (won 98% of 200) | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 38% (won 90% of 10) | 35% (won 99% of 194) | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 4% (won 100% of 1) | 19% (won 100% of 107) | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.