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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
betwickRN1BreakTheBank
Record (consensus markets)54% (243–206, n=449)48% (12823–13908, n=26731)45% (526–640, n=1166)
Consensus PnL$549K$13.4M$10.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #524 + pinnedPM monthly #24 + pinnedPM monthly #1
Sides with the consensus40% (8 of 20 open)64% (94 of 148 open)72% (74 of 103 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +50 pts n=123, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +41 pts n=277, ROI +38%
Weakest topicElections −1 pts, n=58——
Settled positions, side won55% of 597 at avg 48¢, ROI +3%94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%
Entries under 30¢39% (won 11% of 235)10% (won 56% of 2534)10% (won 85% of 53)
Entries 30–50¢11% (won 60% of 67)22% (won 94% of 5497)36% (won 98% of 192)
Entries 50–70¢15% (won 71% of 87)36% (won 99% of 8897)35% (won 99% of 187)
Entries 70¢ and up35% (won 95% of 208)31% (won 100% of 7736)20% (won 100% of 107)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

4 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketbetwickRN1BreakTheBank
Browns vs. Steelers
opposite sides · consensus Steelers
—Steelers $5.5KBrowns $255K
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $152K—Yes $77K
Raiders vs. Jets
opposite sides · consensus Raiders
—Jets $192Raiders $171K
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $35K—Yes $37K
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
Yes $35K—No $35K
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
opposite sides · consensus Cowboys
—Cowboys $11KCardinals $59K
Spread: Raiders (-1.5)
opposite sides · consensus Jets
—Jets $400Raiders $17K
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers
—Buccaneers $1.9KFalcons $8.6K
Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)
opposite sides · consensus Cardinals
—Cowboys $1.4KCardinals $3.0K
Spread: Jets (-1.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $2.3KRaiders $104K
Spread: Cowboys (-7.5)
same side · consensus Cardinals
—Cardinals $714Cardinals $35K
Spread: Jets (-2.5)
same side · consensus Raiders
—Raiders $1.1KRaiders $24K
Spread: Jaguars (-10.5)
same side · consensus Jaguars
—Jaguars $643Jaguars $20K