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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (260–241, n=501) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 56% (101–79, n=180) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $910K | $13.4M | $3.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #373 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 54% (59 of 109 open) | 61% (28 of 46 open) | no open consensus position | 73% (72 of 98 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 312 at avg 57¢, ROI +30% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 94% of 111 at avg 58¢, ROI +42% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 53% of 55) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 7% (won 75% of 8) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 94% of 63) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 26% (won 93% of 29) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 93% of 86) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 42% (won 96% of 47) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 99% of 108) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 24% (won 96% of 27) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | RN1 | 0x5966Db1fE50763C9e3C014d756369BAd07E1F804-1777648534241 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.4K | — | — | No $252K |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.7K | — | — | No $102K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.3K | — | — | No $35K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | — | No $22K |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $93 | — | — | Yes $4.1K |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $738 | — | — | No $747 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.5K | — | — | Yes $73K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $25K | — | — | Yes $51K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $576 | — | — | Yes $38K |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $3 | — | — | No $24K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.9K | — | — | Yes $2.3K |