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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| ndb1 | surfandturf | RN1 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 66% (877–461, n=1338) | 52% (273–252, n=525) | 47% (13868–15346, n=29214) | 45% (542–652, n=1194) |
| Consensus PnL | $2.8M | $4.1M | $13.4M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #69 | was PM monthly #326 | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 67% (52 of 78 open) | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 88% (14 of 16 open) | 90% (149 of 165 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | NFL −11 pts, n=58 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 64% of 1258 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 53% of 536 at avg 53¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24804 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 20% (won 12% of 109) | 10% (won 57% of 2537) | 10% (won 82% of 56) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 39% of 252) | 21% (won 46% of 114) | 22% (won 94% of 5518) | 36% (won 98% of 198) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 24% (won 57% of 306) | 33% (won 60% of 176) | 36% (won 99% of 8928) | 35% (won 99% of 191) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 43% (won 93% of 540) | 26% (won 82% of 137) | 32% (won 100% of 7821) | 19% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.