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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| theta-thunberg | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 51% (225–212, n=437) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $53K | $13.4M | $5.8M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 73% (8 of 11 open) | 54% (63 of 116 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 69% (11 of 16 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | Culture −23 pts, n=11 | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 51% of 611 at avg 47¢, ROI +5% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 42% (won 10% of 257) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 10% (won 35% of 62) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 74% of 73) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 36% (won 95% of 219) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
5 on the same side, 4 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | theta-thunberg | RN1 | beachboy4 | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Buccaneers (-10.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Falcons $2.7K | — | Buccaneers $3.0K |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 50.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $1.3K | — | Under $2.1K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | — | Cardinals $1.1K |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 58.5 opposite sides · consensus Under | — | Over $434 | — | Under $65 |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 64.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $9.2K | — | Under $2.8K |
| Ravens vs. Bills: O/U 52.5 same side · consensus Under | — | Under $7.2K | — | Under $261 |
| Spread: Bills (-17.5) same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $2.5K | — | Bills $282 |
| Spread: Cowboys (-4.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | Cardinals $629 | — | Cardinals $1.0K |
| Spread: Bills (-16.5) same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $93 | — | Bills $662 |