Monastir: Mert Alkaya vs Eliakim Coulibaly

15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Eliakim Coulibaly (71%) · Eliakim Coulibaly at 84¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16

Mert Alkaya17¢Eliakim Coulibaly83¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Eliakim Coulibaly

Consensus Traders

Eliakim Coulibaly 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.0K

Combined PnL

$561.07

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 83.5¢

+38% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralEliakim Coulibaly at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Eliakim Coulibaly

15 of 21 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Mert Alkaya17%

Eliakim Coulibaly84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Eliakim Coulibaly15 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares24,112

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Mert Alkaya6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares13,809

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Eliakim Coulibaly — 71%Mert Alkaya — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Eliakim Coulibaly. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMert Alkaya 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEliakim Coulibaly 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Eliakim Coulibaly 65% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 52.5¢	$3.9K	$6.1K	+$2.2K	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
LI LightParadox	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 69.1¢	$3.1K	$3.7K	+$563.65	24% 202-637 (839)
TH thestingsnake	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 64.6¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$384.95	16% 62-332 (394)
GL glennyorkshire	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 69¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$173.91	49% 29-30 (59)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Mert Alkayaavg 34¢	$3.3K	$1.7K	$-1.6K	51% 3158-3057 (6215)
38 38791873984189	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 71.3¢	$2.2K	$1.3K	-$660.79	48% 767-833 (1600)
LI Limousin	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 74.9¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$100.9	24% 201-647 (848)
MA MadridTime	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 41.7¢	$604.67	$1.2K	+$577.23	25% 204-624 (828)
VE Venusian	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 60.2¢	$520.11	$712.34	+$192.23	24% 205-642 (847)
tradecraftARB<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 31¢	$821.62	$607.31	-$208.16	14% 95-564 (659)
└ Mert Alkaya leg	Mert Alkayaavg 31¢	$609.98	$364.02	-$249.84
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 67.5¢	$201.62	$243.29	+$41.67
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 30.3¢	$494.7	$602.21	+$107.51	35% 171-317 (488)
└ Mert Alkaya leg	Mert Alkayaavg 30.3¢	$386.86	$472.41	+$85.55
└ Eliakim Coulibaly leg	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 52.3¢	$107.84	$129.8	+$21.96
EU Eulhunter	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 41.1¢	$262.42	$401.94	+$139.52	52% 54-49 (103)
dips.CTR	Mert Alkayaavg 63.5¢	$1.2K	$349.85	-$850.05	42% 189-264 (453)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Mert Alkayaavg 33.9¢	$1.0K	$305.49	-$277.39	35% 60-113 (173)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 77.9¢	$326.6	$303.64	-$22.96	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
BA babybells	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 59¢	$273.11	$177.58	+$74.02	16% 68-358 (426)
machinelearned	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 55.1¢	$153.76	$175.9	+$22.14	33% 287-590 (877)
LR lryyy	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 35.5¢	$64.7	$113.51	+$48.81	50% 132-132 (264)
CI cigarettes<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 36¢	$54	$94.5	+$40.5	52% 5320-4824 (10144)
SH shiifooCTR	Mert Alkayaavg 61.9¢	$309.4	$92.5	-$216.9	62% 1295-778 (2073)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 36.4¢	$30.38	$14.61	-$15.77	20% 104-409 (513)
PA Pan9X<$100	Eliakim Coulibalyavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.8	-$0.06	48% 409-445 (854)
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100	Mert Alkayaavg 31¢	$41.52	$1.71	+$4.16	18% 108-480 (588)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,909.87

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

LightParadox

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$3,128.37

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$563.65

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

thestingsnake

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,704

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$384.95

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

glennyorkshire

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,999.99

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$173.91

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

6512395314597884CTR

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$3,295.32

Value

$1.7K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

51%

3158-3057 (6215)

38791873984189

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$2,201.68

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$660.79

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Limousin

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1,144.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$100.9

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

MadridTime

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$604.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$577.23

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

Venusian

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$520.11

Value

$712.34

PnL

+$192.23

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

tradecraftARB<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$821.62

Value

$607.31

PnL

-$208.16

Record

14%

95-564 (659)

Both legs:

Mert Alkaya$609.9831¢-$249.84

Eliakim Coulibaly$201.6267.5¢+$41.67

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$494.7

Value

$602.21

PnL

+$107.51

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

Both legs:

Mert Alkaya$386.8630.3¢+$85.55

Eliakim Coulibaly$107.8452.3¢+$21.96

Eulhunter

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$262.42

Value

$401.94

PnL

+$139.52

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

dips.CTR

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$1,199.9

Value

$349.85

PnL

-$850.05

Record

42%

189-264 (453)

thirdt1meCTR

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$1,046.77

Value

$305.49

PnL

-$277.39

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$326.6

Value

$303.64

PnL

-$22.96

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

babybells

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$273.11

Value

$177.58

PnL

+$74.02

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

machinelearned

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$153.76

Value

$175.9

PnL

+$22.14

Record

33%

287-590 (877)

lryyy

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$64.7

Value

$113.51

PnL

+$48.81

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

cigarettes<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$54

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$40.5

Record

52%

5320-4824 (10144)

shiifooCTR

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$309.4

Value

$92.5

PnL

-$216.9

Record

62%

1295-778 (2073)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$30.38

Value

$14.61

PnL

-$15.77

Record

20%

104-409 (513)

Pan9X<$100

Eliakim Coulibaly

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

409-445 (854)

SchruteBucksCTR<$100

Mert Alkaya

Invested

$41.52

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$4.16

Record

18%

108-480 (588)

Research grade

NeutralEliakim Coulibaly at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Eliakim Coulibaly

15 of 21 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

65% of non-arb traders are on Eliakim Coulibaly. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMert Alkaya 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrEliakim Coulibaly 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000Eliakim Coulibaly 65% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Eliakim Coulibaly wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.