Hersonissos 3: Remy Bertola vs Lorenzo Carboni

11 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Lorenzo Carboni (65%) · Lorenzo Carboni at 66¢ · $53K held · ends Nov 17

Remy Bertola35¢Lorenzo Carboni65¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Lorenzo Carboni

Consensus Traders

Lorenzo Carboni 65%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.4K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 65.5¢

+40% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Remy Bertola35%

Lorenzo Carboni66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Lorenzo Carboni11 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares47,505

Combined PnL+$4.4K

Remy Bertola6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares6,072

Combined PnL-$580.79

Lorenzo Carboni — 65%Remy Bertola — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 50.9¢	$13.0K	$13.4K	+$357	54% 1609-1354 (2963)
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 50.9¢	$10.4K	$9.1K	$-1.3K
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 33.9¢	$2.6K	$4.3K	+$1.7K
LI LightParadox	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50¢	$10.2K	$12.2K	+$2.1K	24% 202-637 (839)
RN1	Lorenzo Carboniavg 46.8¢	$6.8K	$7.4K	+$539.73	58% 3749-2704 (6453)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 65.9¢	$6.0K	$3.7K	$-1.2K	24% 205-642 (847)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$420.89
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 65.9¢	$2.4K	$1.3K	$-1.7K
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 53.7¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$126.81	25% 204-624 (828)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 50.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$126.28
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 53.7¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$253.09
FL Flaznorp	Lorenzo Carboniavg 29.4¢	$1.7K	$2.7K	+$986.1	50% 1387-1404 (2791)
LI Limousin	Lorenzo Carboniavg 46.3¢	$1.8K	$2.4K	+$611.13	24% 201-647 (848)
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR	Remy Bertolaavg 44.9¢	$2.2K	$1.8K	-$365.73	1% 2-165 (167)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 52.4¢	$3.4K	$1.6K	+$502.61	48% 767-833 (1600)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 41.2¢	$630.77	$864.63	+$569.46
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 52.4¢	$855.31	$709.57	-$66.86
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Lorenzo Carboniavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$50	8% 71-772 (843)
TH thestingsnake	Lorenzo Carboniavg 35.6¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	+$273.53	16% 62-332 (394)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 50.2¢	$936.69	$939.78	+$3.1	56% 3782-2946 (6728)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 49.3¢	$462.33	$580.92	+$118.6
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 50.2¢	$474.36	$358.86	-$115.5
machinelearned	Lorenzo Carboniavg 46.9¢	$436.71	$481.22	+$44.5	33% 287-590 (877)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 40.4¢	$1.8K	$279.28	+$282.84	35% 60-113 (173)
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 40.4¢	$156.31	$179.81	+$209.47
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 51.5¢	$95.7	$99.48	+$73.37
SE sentrio	Lorenzo Carboniavg 55¢	$306.1	$225.15	-$80.95	30% 160-377 (537)
OJ ojgCTR	Remy Bertolaavg 48.4¢	$295.29	$210.4	-$84.89	36% 78-140 (218)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 55.4¢	$347.4	$144.63	+$27.03	16% 68-358 (426)
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 55.4¢	$102.54	$80.48	-$22.63
└ Lorenzo Carboni leg	Lorenzo Carboniavg 40.2¢	$45.62	$64.16	+$49.65
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Lorenzo Carboniavg 60¢	$150	$141.25	-$8.75	22% 85-293 (378)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Remy Bertolaavg 71¢	$187.95	$121.77	-$66.18	61% 891-567 (1458)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 35.5¢	$75.86	$77.97	+$2.11	52% 54-49 (103)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 71¢	$93.03	$60.28	-$32.76	57% 103-79 (182)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 64¢	$56.32	$40.48	-$15.84	50% 132-132 (264)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 71.7¢	$42.95	$27.56	-$15.39	35% 171-317 (488)
tradecraft<$100	Lorenzo Carboniavg 46¢	$9.2	$11.1	+$1.9	14% 95-564 (659)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$13,047.92

Value

$13.4K

PnL

+$357

Record

54%

1609-1354 (2963)

Both legs:

Remy Bertola$10,433.5250.9¢$-1.3K

Lorenzo Carboni$2,614.433.9¢+$1.7K

LightParadox

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$10,158.66

Value

$12.2K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

24%

202-637 (839)

RN1

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$6,830.51

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$539.73

Record

58%

3749-2704 (6453)

VenusianARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$5,988.42

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

24%

205-642 (847)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$1,986.0854¢+$420.89

Remy Bertola$2,446.9165.9¢$-1.7K

MadridTimeARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$3,249.04

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$126.81

Record

25%

204-624 (828)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$1,597.4450.5¢+$126.28

Remy Bertola$1,651.653.7¢-$253.09

Flaznorp

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,674.34

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$986.1

Record

50%

1387-1404 (2791)

Limousin

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,777.95

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$611.13

Record

24%

201-647 (848)

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945CTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$2,210

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$365.73

Record

2-165 (167)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$3,371.55

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$502.61

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$630.7741.2¢+$569.46

Remy Bertola$855.3152.4¢-$66.86

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,260

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

71-772 (843)

thestingsnake

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$2,037.89

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$273.53

Record

16%

62-332 (394)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$936.69

Value

$939.78

PnL

+$3.1

Record

56%

3782-2946 (6728)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$462.3349.3¢+$118.6

Remy Bertola$474.3650.2¢-$115.5

machinelearned

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$436.71

Value

$481.22

PnL

+$44.5

Record

33%

287-590 (877)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$1,823.36

Value

$279.28

PnL

+$282.84

Record

35%

60-113 (173)

Both legs:

Lorenzo Carboni$156.3140.4¢+$209.47

Remy Bertola$95.751.5¢+$73.37

sentrio

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$306.1

Value

$225.15

PnL

-$80.95

Record

30%

160-377 (537)

ojgCTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$295.29

Value

$210.4

PnL

-$84.89

Record

36%

78-140 (218)

babybellsARB<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$347.4

Value

$144.63

PnL

+$27.03

Record

16%

68-358 (426)

Both legs:

Remy Bertola$102.5455.4¢-$22.63

Lorenzo Carboni$45.6240.2¢+$49.65

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$150

Value

$141.25

PnL

-$8.75

Record

22%

85-293 (378)

darkumbreon88CTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$187.95

Value

$121.77

PnL

-$66.18

Record

61%

891-567 (1458)

Eulhunter<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$75.86

Value

$77.97

PnL

+$2.11

Record

52%

54-49 (103)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$93.03

Value

$60.28

PnL

-$32.76

Record

57%

103-79 (182)

lryyyCTR<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$56.32

Value

$40.48

PnL

-$15.84

Record

50%

132-132 (264)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$42.95

Value

$27.56

PnL

-$15.39

Record

35%

171-317 (488)

tradecraft<$100

Lorenzo Carboni

Invested

$9.2

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$1.9

Record

14%

95-564 (659)

Research grade

NeutralLorenzo Carboni at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Lorenzo Carboni

11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Lorenzo Carboni wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.