Villa Maria: Thiago Cigarran vs Hernan Casanova

24 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Hernan Casanova (75%) · Hernan Casanova at 100¢ · $46K held · ends Nov 9

Thiago Cigarran<1¢Hernan Casanova>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hernan Casanova

Consensus Traders

Hernan Casanova 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.7K

Combined PnL

$9.3K

Smart Money Entry

61.3¢ → 100¢

+63% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralHernan Casanova at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hernan Casanova

24 of 32 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Thiago Cigarran0%

Hernan Casanova100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hernan Casanova24 traders

Total Value$34.8K

Total Shares40,739

Combined PnL+$14.9K

Thiago Cigarran8 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares33,838

Combined PnL$-5.5K

Hernan Casanova — 75%Thiago Cigarran — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Hernan Casanovaavg 67.4¢	$10.7K	$12.4K	+$1.7K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
65 6512395314597884	Hernan Casanovaavg 55.9¢	$5.1K	$6.6K	+$1.4K	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
HY hydra1248CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 33.8¢	$5.8K	$3.8K	$-2.0K	67% 52-26 (78)
IV Ivan948CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 41¢	$5.8K	$3.1K	$-2.7K	42% 87-120 (207)
FL Flaznorp	Hernan Casanovaavg 65.1¢	$2.5K	$3.0K	+$554.82	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
NO NotJump	Hernan Casanovaavg 49¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$63.79	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 61.7¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$111.71	53% 916-813 (1729)
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 61.7¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$380.22
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 40.9¢	$1.1K	$573.48	-$491.93
TRCM	Hernan Casanovaavg 61.7¢	$1.3K	$1.9K	+$566.86	55% 3998-3230 (7228)
tradecraft	Hernan Casanovaavg 60.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$355.81	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
38 38791873984189	Hernan Casanovaavg 58.7¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$575.69	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
SM smithagent	Hernan Casanovaavg 60.2¢	$903.14	$1.2K	+$266.86	48% 5287-5668 (10955)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Thiago Cigarranavg 67.8¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	$-1.9K	56% 942-736 (1678)
└ Thiago Cigarran leg	Thiago Cigarranavg 67.8¢	$2.6K	$562.95	$-2.1K
└ Hernan Casanova leg	Hernan Casanovaavg 62.3¢	$395.89	$543.42	+$147.53
3648393489047	Hernan Casanovaavg 28¢	$5.2K	$1.1K	+$9.4K	61% 1152-728 (1880)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Hernan Casanovaavg 82.3¢	$914.71	$945.9	+$31.18	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
TH thestingsnake	Hernan Casanovaavg 51.1¢	$1.5K	$738.27	-$109.48	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
1L 1lovejump	Hernan Casanovaavg 79.1¢	$619.2	$311.45	-$36.72	52% 702-642 (1344)
SE sentrioCTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 73¢	$730	$220	-$510	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 23.3¢	$204.82	$162.32	-$42.5	52% 830-771 (1601)
EU Eulhunter	Hernan Casanovaavg 73.3¢	$122.45	$157.87	+$35.43	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Thiago Cigarranavg 71.2¢	$404.53	$124.97	-$279.57	53% 3273-2894 (6167)
US User7429<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 60.2¢	$69	$89.39	+$20.39	55% 8674-6972 (15646)
LI LightParadox<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 54.2¢	$53.36	$86.03	+$32.67	54% 906-787 (1693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 50.6¢	$76.29	$84.03	+$7.74	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
CI cigarettes<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 94¢	$47	$49.75	+$2.75	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
0xheavy888<$100	Hernan Casanovaavg 76.9¢	$36.37	$36.03	-$0.34	55% 7598-6093 (13691)

RN1

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$10,682.04

Value

$12.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

6512395314597884

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$5,107.99

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

hydra1248CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$5,770.44

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

67%

52-26 (78)

Ivan948CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$5,792.52

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

42%

87-120 (207)

Flaznorp

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$2,453.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$554.82

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

NotJump

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$2,931.23

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$63.79

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

VenusianARB<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$2,509.16

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$111.71

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

Both legs:

Hernan Casanova$1,443.7561.7¢+$380.22

Thiago Cigarran$1,065.4140.9¢-$491.93

TRCM

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$1,302.26

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$566.86

Record

55%

3998-3230 (7228)

tradecraft

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$1,204.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$355.81

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

38791873984189

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$2,110.36

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$575.69

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

smithagent

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$903.14

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$266.86

Record

48%

5287-5668 (10955)

LimousinARB<$100

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$3,026.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Both legs:

Thiago Cigarran$2,630.5367.8¢$-2.1K

Hernan Casanova$395.8962.3¢+$147.53

3648393489047

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$5,151.43

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.4K

Record

61%

1152-728 (1880)

CandleHammerDrums

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$914.71

Value

$945.9

PnL

+$31.18

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

thestingsnake

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$1,491.4

Value

$738.27

PnL

-$109.48

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

1lovejump

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$619.2

Value

$311.45

PnL

-$36.72

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

sentrioCTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$730

Value

$220

PnL

-$510

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

MadridTimeCTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$204.82

Value

$162.32

PnL

-$42.5

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Eulhunter

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$122.45

Value

$157.87

PnL

+$35.43

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Thiago Cigarran

Invested

$404.53

Value

$124.97

PnL

-$279.57

Record

53%

3273-2894 (6167)

User7429<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$69

Value

$89.39

PnL

+$20.39

Record

55%

8674-6972 (15646)

LightParadox<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$53.36

Value

$86.03

PnL

+$32.67

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$76.29

Value

$84.03

PnL

+$7.74

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

cigarettes<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$47

Value

$49.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

0xheavy888<$100

Hernan Casanova

Invested

$36.37

Value

$36.03

PnL

-$0.34

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

Research grade

NeutralHernan Casanova at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Hernan Casanova

24 of 32 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hernan Casanova wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.