Villa Maria: Juan Estevez vs Ryo Tabata

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Ryo Tabata (65%) · Ryo Tabata at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 10

Juan Estevez<1¢Ryo Tabata>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ryo Tabata

Consensus Traders

Ryo Tabata 65%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 99.5¢

+56% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

13 of 20 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Juan Estevez1%

Ryo Tabata100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryo Tabata13 traders

Total Value$9.8K

Total Shares13,610

Combined PnL-$557.56

Juan Estevez7 traders

Total Value$916.84

Total Shares3,776

Combined PnL-$963.68

Ryo Tabata — 65%Juan Estevez — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Ryo Tabataavg 54.4¢	$2.8K	$3.1K	+$311.51	51% 4504-4380 (8884)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Juan Estevezavg 19.8¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$385.4	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 42.4¢	$776.19	$1.6K	+$863.91
└ Juan Estevez leg	Juan Estevezavg 19.8¢	$1.0K	$539.42	-$478.51
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Juan Estevezavg 44¢	$2.9K	$1.6K	$-1.4K	54% 906-787 (1693)
└ Juan Estevez leg	Juan Estevezavg 44¢	$2.3K	$847.56	$-1.4K
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 78.1¢	$666.35	$712.26	+$45.91
RN1	Ryo Tabataavg 65.9¢	$2.9K	$1.5K	$-1.4K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Ryo Tabataavg 64.1¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$214.48	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
38 38791873984189	Ryo Tabataavg 69.6¢	$1.1K	$971.33	+$8.81	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
FL Flaznorp	Ryo Tabataavg 59.3¢	$753.86	$954.68	+$200.82	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
NO NotJump	Ryo Tabataavg 80¢	$868.24	$909.05	+$40.81	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Juan Estevezavg 49.7¢	$1.8K	$828.66	-$981.9	52% 830-771 (1601)
LI Limousin	Ryo Tabataavg 73.5¢	$655.6	$734.46	+$78.87	56% 942-736 (1678)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 31¢	$66.23	$78.83	+$12.6	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
└ Ryo Tabata leg	Ryo Tabataavg 31¢	$43.4	$56	+$12.6
└ Juan Estevez leg	Juan Estevezavg 66¢	$22.83	$22.83	-$0
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 68.2¢	$51.18	$57.38	+$6.19	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 41.2¢	$57.49	$47.45	-$10.05	50% 4085-4060 (8145)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 51¢	$36.06	$42.53	+$6.46	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 43.2¢	$40.38	$39.69	+$2.14	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 21¢	$5.25	$16.51	+$11.26	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 32.6¢	$12.71	$12.68	-$0.04	53% 916-813 (1729)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 24¢	$9.84	$12.5	+$2.66	51% 6221-5962 (12183)
0xheavy888<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 32¢	$9.6	$11.99	+$0.45	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
TRCM<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 85.6¢	$21.41	$8.5	-$12.91	55% 3998-3230 (7228)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Ryo Tabataavg 46.2¢	$9.25	$6.8	-$2.45	59% 31360-22035 (53395)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 68¢	$3.61	$3.51	-$0.11	82% 6738-1455 (8193)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Juan Estevezavg 20¢	$1	$3.3	+$2.3	65% 5090-2759 (7849)

6512395314597884

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$2,811.86

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$311.51

Record

51%

4504-4380 (8884)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$1,794.11

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$385.4

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$776.1942.4¢+$863.91

Juan Estevez$1,017.9319.8¢-$478.51

LightParadoxARB<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$2,925.02

Value

$1.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

Both legs:

Juan Estevez$2,258.6844¢$-1.4K

Ryo Tabata$666.3578.1¢+$45.91

RN1

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$2,896.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

CandleHammerDrums

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$1,208.62

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$214.48

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

38791873984189

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$1,070.77

Value

$971.33

PnL

+$8.81

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

Flaznorp

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$753.86

Value

$954.68

PnL

+$200.82

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

NotJump

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$868.24

Value

$909.05

PnL

+$40.81

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

MadridTimeCTR

Juan Estevez

Invested

$1,810.55

Value

$828.66

PnL

-$981.9

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

Limousin

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$655.6

Value

$734.46

PnL

+$78.87

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$66.23

Value

$78.83

PnL

+$12.6

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

Both legs:

Ryo Tabata$43.431¢+$12.6

Juan Estevez$22.8366¢-$0

BillBenter2026<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$51.18

Value

$57.38

PnL

+$6.19

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

NatoAlfista<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$57.49

Value

$47.45

PnL

-$10.05

Record

50%

4085-4060 (8145)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$36.06

Value

$42.53

PnL

+$6.46

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$40.38

Value

$39.69

PnL

+$2.14

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$5.25

Value

$16.51

PnL

+$11.26

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

VenusianCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$12.71

Value

$12.68

PnL

-$0.04

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$9.84

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$2.66

Record

51%

6221-5962 (12183)

0xheavy888<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$9.6

Value

$11.99

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

TRCM<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$21.41

Value

$8.5

PnL

-$12.91

Record

55%

3998-3230 (7228)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Ryo Tabata

Invested

$9.25

Value

$6.8

PnL

-$2.45

Record

59%

31360-22035 (53395)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

$3.61

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.11

Record

82%

6738-1455 (8193)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Juan Estevez

Invested

Value

$3.3

PnL

+$2.3

Record

65%

5090-2759 (7849)

Research grade

NeutralRyo Tabata at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Ryo Tabata

13 of 20 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ryo Tabata wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.