BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Max Dahlin

20 of 34 top Polymarket traders hold Tomas Etcheverry (59%) · Tomas Etcheverry at 92¢ · $60K held · ends Nov 16

Tomas Etcheverry92¢Max Dahlin8¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tomas Etcheverry

Consensus Traders

Tomas Etcheverry 59%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$59.9K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 91.5¢

+6% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

NeutralTomas Etcheverry at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Etcheverry

20 of 34 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tomas Etcheverry92%

Max Dahlin9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tomas Etcheverry20 traders

Total Value$50.8K

Total Shares54,675

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Max Dahlin14 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares16,788

Combined PnL+$205.43

Tomas Etcheverry — 59%Max Dahlin — 41%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Etcheverry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Tomas Etcheverry) and the top 1000 (13 on Max Dahlin) disagree here.

whaleMax Dahlin 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrMax Dahlin 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTomas Etcheverry 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Max Dahlin 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK Kkunn	Tomas Etcheverryavg 82.7¢	$7.3K	$8.0K	+$685.46	42% 264-366 (630)
LI Limousin	Tomas Etcheverryavg 91.4¢	$7.7K	$7.3K	-$404.52	46% 2902-3417 (6319)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Tomas Etcheverryavg 91.4¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$136.66	51% 6120-5876 (11996)
└ Tomas Etcheverry leg	Tomas Etcheverryavg 91.4¢	$5.0K	$5.0K	+$4.13
└ Max Dahlin leg	Max Dahlinavg 9.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$140.79
PA Paul973973	Tomas Etcheverryavg 90.4¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	+$3.33	89% 1172-147 (1319)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tomas Etcheverryavg 81¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$451.06	47% 2303-2604 (4907)
DM dmoralez	Tomas Etcheverryavg 88¢	$7.1K	$4.4K	+$264.25	62% 213-128 (341)
0xheavy888	Tomas Etcheverryavg 80.6¢	$3.8K	$4.3K	+$509.94	56% 9045-7130 (16175)
PR prabam	Tomas Etcheverryavg 82.7¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$38.01	63% 42-25 (67)
MA MadridTime	Tomas Etcheverryavg 91.4¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$188.2	45% 2807-3427 (6234)
LI LightParadox	Tomas Etcheverryavg 91.4¢	$2.4K	$2.2K	-$160.97	45% 2787-3376 (6163)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Tomas Etcheverryavg 89.2¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$45.71	53% 15746-13885 (29631)
38 38791873984189	Tomas Etcheverryavg 85.1¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	+$42.43	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
VE Venusian	Tomas Etcheverryavg 86.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$32.7	45% 2863-3516 (6379)
EU Eulhunter	Tomas Etcheverryavg 89.5¢	$919.77	$940.38	+$20.61	53% 6838-5988 (12826)
1L 1lovejump	Tomas Etcheverryavg 90.1¢	$1.8K	$894.48	+$8.23	53% 863-760 (1623)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Max Dahlinavg 12.1¢	$795.18	$627.86	-$167.33	50% 24168-24285 (48453)
└ Max Dahlin leg	Max Dahlinavg 12.1¢	$579.16	$408.23	-$170.93
└ Tomas Etcheverry leg	Tomas Etcheverryavg 90¢	$216.02	$219.62	+$3.6
RN1CTR	Max Dahlinavg 0¢	$0	$494.76	+$494.76	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
K5 k56	Tomas Etcheverryavg 77¢	$401.06	$424.49	+$23.44	57% 910-677 (1587)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Max Dahlinavg 9¢	$12.6	$338.21	+$325.61	52% 49773-46707 (96480)
HI hi774cCTR	Max Dahlinavg 18¢	$1.6K	$305.25	+$8.25	46% 5712-6614 (12326)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Max Dahlinavg 12¢	$289	$228	-$61	51% 2356-2290 (4646)
GC GC-PCTR	Max Dahlinavg 19¢	$445.62	$222.81	-$222.81	57% 22682-16912 (39594)
NM NM-PCTR	Max Dahlinavg 19.1¢	$411.62	$182.91	-$228.71	57% 22830-16911 (39741)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Tomas Etcheverryavg 81¢	$99.99	$111.72	+$11.73	32% 21982-45900 (67882)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Max Dahlinavg 10.1¢	$136.5	$99.75	-$5.25	58% 241-178 (419)

Kkunn

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$7,306.6

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$685.46

Record

42%

264-366 (630)

Limousin

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$7,671.44

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$404.52

Record

46%

2902-3417 (6319)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$6,533.49

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$136.66

Record

51%

6120-5876 (11996)

Both legs:

Tomas Etcheverry$5,005.9791.4¢+$4.13

Max Dahlin$1,527.529.4¢-$140.79

Paul973973

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$6,030

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$3.33

Record

89%

1172-147 (1319)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$4,076.6

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$451.06

Record

47%

2303-2604 (4907)

dmoralez

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$7,050.74

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$264.25

Record

62%

213-128 (341)

0xheavy888

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$3,759.45

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$509.94

Record

56%

9045-7130 (16175)

prabam

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$4,261.25

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$38.01

Record

63%

42-25 (67)

MadridTime

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$3,059.1

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$188.2

Record

45%

2807-3427 (6234)

LightParadox

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$2,406.75

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$160.97

Record

45%

2787-3376 (6163)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$1,610.05

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$45.71

Record

53%

15746-13885 (29631)

38791873984189

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$2,081.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$42.43

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

Venusian

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$1,306.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.7

Record

45%

2863-3516 (6379)

Eulhunter

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$919.77

Value

$940.38

PnL

+$20.61

Record

53%

6838-5988 (12826)

1lovejump

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$1,836.25

Value

$894.48

PnL

+$8.23

Record

53%

863-760 (1623)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Max Dahlin

Invested

$795.18

Value

$627.86

PnL

-$167.33

Record

50%

24168-24285 (48453)

Both legs:

Max Dahlin$579.1612.1¢-$170.93

Tomas Etcheverry$216.0290¢+$3.6

RN1CTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

Value

$494.76

PnL

+$494.76

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

k56

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$401.06

Value

$424.49

PnL

+$23.44

Record

57%

910-677 (1587)

FlaznorpCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$12.6

Value

$338.21

PnL

+$325.61

Record

52%

49773-46707 (96480)

hi774cCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$1,650

Value

$305.25

PnL

+$8.25

Record

46%

5712-6614 (12326)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$289

Value

$228

PnL

-$61

Record

51%

2356-2290 (4646)

GC-PCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$445.62

Value

$222.81

PnL

-$222.81

Record

57%

22682-16912 (39594)

NM-PCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$411.62

Value

$182.91

PnL

-$228.71

Record

57%

22830-16911 (39741)

xtxpleasecallme

Tomas Etcheverry

Invested

$99.99

Value

$111.72

PnL

+$11.73

Record

32%

21982-45900 (67882)

thirdt1meCTR

Max Dahlin

Invested

$136.5

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

58%

241-178 (419)

Research grade

NeutralTomas Etcheverry at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tomas Etcheverry

20 of 34 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Tomas Etcheverry. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Tomas Etcheverry) and the top 1000 (13 on Max Dahlin) disagree here.

whaleMax Dahlin 80% · 5

Diverging

ctrMax Dahlin 80% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedTomas Etcheverry 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Max Dahlin 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tomas Etcheverry wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.