Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Giles Hussey, while the market favors Michael Zheng (72%). 13 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Knoxville: Giles Hussey vs Michael Zheng

13 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Giles Hussey (65%) · Giles Hussey at 28¢ · $50K held · ends Nov 17

Giles Hussey28¢Michael Zheng72¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Giles Hussey

Consensus Traders

Giles Hussey 65%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.0K

Combined PnL

-$988.83

Smart Money Entry

39.3¢ → 28.5¢

-27% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidGiles Hussey at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Michael Zheng 72%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giles Hussey28%

Michael Zheng72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Zheng7 traders

Total Value$6.6K

Total Shares9,790

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Giles Hussey13 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares37,923

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Michael Zheng — 35%Giles Hussey — 65%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Giles Hussey. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Michael Zheng) and the top 1000 (22 on Giles Hussey) disagree here.

whaleGiles Hussey 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGiles Hussey 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiles Hussey 67% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Zheng 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Giles Hussey 77% · 22

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 39.9¢	$14.7K	$13.1K	$-1.6K	54% 1644-1413 (3057)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 39.9¢	$10.5K	$7.5K	$-3.0K
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 53.7¢	$4.2K	$5.6K	+$1.4K
LI LimousinARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 55.2¢	$7.1K	$6.1K	-$981.01	26% 231-671 (902)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 49.2¢	$2.6K	$3.8K	+$1.2K
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 55.2¢	$4.5K	$2.3K	$-2.2K
0X 0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945	Michael Zhengavg 42¢	$3.4K	$5.9K	+$2.4K	2% 4-167 (171)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 42.7¢	$5.6K	$4.5K	$-1.1K	51% 3171-3070 (6241)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 42.7¢	$4.3K	$2.8K	$-1.4K
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 57.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$340.89
VE VenusianCTR	Giles Husseyavg 45.7¢	$6.9K	$4.3K	$-2.5K	25% 227-676 (903)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$4.7K	$4.0K	-$741.06	51% 3676-3502 (7178)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 35.9¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$11.25	50% 1432-1432 (2864)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 58¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$235.12
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 35.9¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$223.87
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Michael Zhengavg 60.6¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$178.48	26% 233-650 (883)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 60.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$34.42
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 52.1¢	$759.34	$546.44	-$212.9
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 54.8¢	$2.6K	$1.6K	-$939.51	26% 232-661 (893)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 54.8¢	$1.9K	$1.0K	-$929.68
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 59.2¢	$449.58	$542.91	-$9.83
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Michael Zhengavg 51.8¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	+$266.53	48% 937-1010 (1947)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 51.8¢	$803.03	$1.1K	+$305.43
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 35.1¢	$542.34	$440.77	-$38.91
tradecraftCTR	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$261.29	18% 124-583 (707)
TRCMCTR	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$260	9% 41-422 (463)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Michael Zhengavg 51.2¢	$502.19	$506.45	+$4.26	56% 3814-2983 (6797)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 51.2¢	$257.21	$359.32	+$102.11
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 47.5¢	$244.97	$147.12	-$97.85
0xheavy888	Michael Zhengavg 77.2¢	$764.29	$415.8	-$348.5	56% 118-93 (211)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$190.82	$299.86	+$109.04	64% 166-94 (260)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 42.3¢	$1.2K	$252.57	+$167.54	41% 90-128 (218)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 43.5¢	$94.48	$155.33	+$131.36
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 42.3¢	$144.3	$97.24	+$36.18
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 43.5¢	$241.3	$199.25	-$42.05	51% 78-75 (153)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 43.5¢	$151.4	$102.66	-$48.74
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 65.6¢	$89.9	$96.59	+$6.68
TH thestingsnake	Michael Zhengavg 59.3¢	$716.04	$193.13	-$15.18	20% 91-354 (445)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 40.6¢	$165.28	$133.48	-$31.8	37% 378-655 (1033)
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 40.6¢	$114.05	$80.04	-$34.01
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 68.5¢	$51.23	$53.45	+$2.21
BA babybellsCTR	Giles Husseyavg 37.4¢	$203.55	$90.55	+$35.6	20% 96-383 (479)
VeryLucky888	Michael Zhengavg 76¢	$133	$78.75	-$54.25	50% 260-256 (516)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Giles Husseyavg 54.5¢	$99.89	$74.78	-$22.52	17% 97-471 (568)
└ Michael Zheng leg	Michael Zhengavg 61.4¢	$38.3	$44.57	+$6.27
└ Giles Hussey leg	Giles Husseyavg 54.5¢	$57.77	$30.21	-$28.79
US User7429CTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$46.25	$72.68	+$26.43	18% 73-322 (395)
dips.CTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$31.5	$49.5	+$18	42% 215-299 (514)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Giles Husseyavg 35¢	$30.8	$48.4	+$17.6	50% 176-175 (351)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$14,741.38

Value

$13.1K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

1644-1413 (3057)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$10,511.3439.9¢$-3.0K

Michael Zheng$4,230.0453.7¢+$1.4K

LimousinARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$7,089.39

Value

$6.1K

PnL

-$981.01

Record

26%

231-671 (902)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$2,607.3149.2¢+$1.2K

Giles Hussey$4,482.0855.2¢$-2.2K

0x6982049c65e98606f65A0CE71fDb9b61296dA165-1777135114945

Michael Zheng

Invested

$3,447

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

4-167 (171)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$5,623.65

Value

$4.5K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

51%

3171-3070 (6241)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$4,268.0742.7¢$-1.4K

Michael Zheng$1,355.5857.1¢+$340.89

VenusianCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$6,888.91

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

25%

227-676 (903)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$4,715.84

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$741.06

Record

51%

3676-3502 (7178)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$2,338.13

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$11.25

Record

50%

1432-1432 (2864)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$1,085.8158¢+$235.12

Giles Hussey$1,252.3235.9¢-$223.87

MadridTimeARB<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$1,875.83

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$178.48

Record

26%

233-650 (883)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$1,116.4960.6¢+$34.42

Giles Hussey$759.3452.1¢-$212.9

LightParadoxARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$2,640.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$939.51

Record

26%

232-661 (893)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$1,939.0454.8¢-$929.68

Michael Zheng$449.5859.2¢-$9.83

38791873984189ARB<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$1,566.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$266.53

Record

48%

937-1010 (1947)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$803.0351.8¢+$305.43

Giles Hussey$542.3435.1¢-$38.91

tradecraftCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,406.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$261.29

Record

18%

124-583 (707)

TRCMCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$260

Record

41-422 (463)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Michael Zheng

Invested

$502.19

Value

$506.45

PnL

+$4.26

Record

56%

3814-2983 (6797)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$257.2151.2¢+$102.11

Giles Hussey$244.9747.5¢-$97.85

0xheavy888

Michael Zheng

Invested

$764.29

Value

$415.8

PnL

-$348.5

Record

56%

118-93 (211)

suitcase6628CTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$190.82

Value

$299.86

PnL

+$109.04

Record

64%

166-94 (260)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$1,191.71

Value

$252.57

PnL

+$167.54

Record

41%

90-128 (218)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$94.4843.5¢+$131.36

Giles Hussey$144.342.3¢+$36.18

EulhunterARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$241.3

Value

$199.25

PnL

-$42.05

Record

51%

78-75 (153)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$151.443.5¢-$48.74

Michael Zheng$89.965.6¢+$6.68

thestingsnake

Michael Zheng

Invested

$716.04

Value

$193.13

PnL

-$15.18

Record

20%

91-354 (445)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$165.28

Value

$133.48

PnL

-$31.8

Record

37%

378-655 (1033)

Both legs:

Giles Hussey$114.0540.6¢-$34.01

Michael Zheng$51.2368.5¢+$2.21

babybellsCTR

Giles Hussey

Invested

$203.55

Value

$90.55

PnL

+$35.6

Record

20%

96-383 (479)

VeryLucky888

Michael Zheng

Invested

$133

Value

$78.75

PnL

-$54.25

Record

50%

260-256 (516)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$99.89

Value

$74.78

PnL

-$22.52

Record

17%

97-471 (568)

Both legs:

Michael Zheng$38.361.4¢+$6.27

Giles Hussey$57.7754.5¢-$28.79

User7429CTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$46.25

Value

$72.68

PnL

+$26.43

Record

18%

73-322 (395)

dips.CTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$31.5

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$18

Record

42%

215-299 (514)

lryyyCTR<$100

Giles Hussey

Invested

$30.8

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$17.6

Record

50%

176-175 (351)

Research grade

AvoidGiles Hussey at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Giles Hussey

13 of 20 top traders (65%)Underdog side (market favors Michael Zheng 72%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

74% of non-arb traders are on Giles Hussey. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Michael Zheng) and the top 1000 (22 on Giles Hussey) disagree here.

whaleGiles Hussey 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpGiles Hussey 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrGiles Hussey 67% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedMichael Zheng 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Giles Hussey 77% · 22

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Giles Hussey wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.