Knoxville: Marcel Latak vs Clement Chidekh

18 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Clement Chidekh (75%) · Clement Chidekh at 92¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 16

Marcel Latak8¢Clement Chidekh92¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clement Chidekh

Consensus Traders

Clement Chidekh 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.0K

Combined PnL

-$961.04

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 92.2¢

+3% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

18 of 24 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marcel Latak8%

Clement Chidekh92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clement Chidekh18 traders

Total Value$35.6K

Total Shares38,264

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Marcel Latak6 traders

Total Value$545.19

Total Shares1,698

Combined PnL+$452.09

Clement Chidekh — 75%Marcel Latak — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClement Chidekh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClement Chidekh 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedClement Chidekh 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Clement Chidekh 74% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Clement Chidekhavg 92.1¢	$10.0K	$10.1K	+$128.73	54% 248-213 (461)
FL Flaznorp	Clement Chidekhavg 93.5¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$50.58	52% 271-247 (518)
LI LightParadox	Clement Chidekhavg 83.3¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	+$54.22	28% 104-265 (369)
38 38791873984189	Clement Chidekhavg 89.5¢	$10.1K	$5.2K	-$830.31	49% 398-410 (808)
MA MadridTime	Clement Chidekhavg 89.2¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	+$25.03	27% 100-275 (375)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 74.2¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$83.71	26% 97-281 (378)
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 74.2¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$290.8
└ Marcel Latak leg	Marcel Latakavg 13¢	$941.3	$566.79	-$374.51
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Clement Chidekhavg 85.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.43	39% 44-69 (113)
TH thirdt1me	Clement Chidekhavg 83.7¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$234.37	0% 0-36 (36)
SE sentrio	Clement Chidekhavg 95.9¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$432.04	24% 59-185 (244)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 80.3¢	$1.0K	$985.34	-$22.23	26% 102-296 (398)
└ Clement Chidekh leg	Clement Chidekhavg 80.3¢	$507.01	$563.85	+$56.84
└ Marcel Latak leg	Marcel Latakavg 12.4¢	$490.53	$421.49	-$79.07
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Clement Chidekhavg 79.5¢	$323.91	$375.84	+$51.93	22% 44-160 (204)
CI cigarettes	Clement Chidekhavg 87.9¢	$307.7	$237.65	-$70.05	42% 124-169 (293)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	Clement Chidekhavg 92.6¢	$297.43	$218.15	-$63.7	47% 16-18 (34)
TRCMCTR	Marcel Latakavg 10¢	$61.57	$197.63	+$136.06	14% 21-130 (151)
TH thestingsnake	Clement Chidekhavg 76.2¢	$330.06	$184.3	+$54.12	26% 40-112 (152)
OM omnibus-076daa	Clement Chidekhavg 83.4¢	$210.77	$171.63	-$39.14	36% 86-155 (241)
EU Eulhunter	Clement Chidekhavg 80¢	$129.17	$136.09	+$33.06	55% 37-30 (67)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Marcel Latakavg 4.6¢	$2.8	$128.4	+$125.6	6% 5-77 (82)
GA Gaditima	Clement Chidekhavg 95¢	$153.24	$110.03	-$35.55	49% 36-37 (73)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4¢	$24	$96.62	+$87.57	50% 76-76 (152)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 4.2¢	$12.55	$95.98	+$71.77	42% 28-38 (66)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 87.8¢	$70.24	$57.44	-$12.8	—
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 87.1¢	$47.89	$50.71	+$2.82	16% 34-184 (218)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clement Chidekhavg 93¢	$11.37	$27.33	+$5.05	48% 179-191 (370)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Marcel Latakavg 27.2¢	$19.81	$23.38	+$3.57	33% 50-102 (152)

RN1

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$10,009.98

Value

$10.1K

PnL

+$128.73

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

Flaznorp

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$6,540.2

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$50.58

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

LightParadox

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$5,185.41

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$54.22

Record

28%

104-265 (369)

38791873984189

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$10,055.59

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$830.31

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

MadridTime

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$3,075.37

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$25.03

Record

27%

100-275 (375)

VenusianARB<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$2,143.56

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$83.71

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

Both legs:

Clement Chidekh$1,024.674.2¢+$290.8

Marcel Latak$941.313¢-$374.51

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,431.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.43

Record

39%

44-69 (113)

thirdt1me

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,643.73

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$234.37

Record

0-36 (36)

sentrio

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,493.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$432.04

Record

24%

59-185 (244)

LimousinARB<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$1,018.28

Value

$985.34

PnL

-$22.23

Record

26%

102-296 (398)

Both legs:

Clement Chidekh$507.0180.3¢+$56.84

Marcel Latak$490.5312.4¢-$79.07

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$323.91

Value

$375.84

PnL

+$51.93

Record

22%

44-160 (204)

cigarettes

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$307.7

Value

$237.65

PnL

-$70.05

Record

42%

124-169 (293)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$297.43

Value

$218.15

PnL

-$63.7

Record

47%

16-18 (34)

TRCMCTR

Marcel Latak

Invested

$61.57

Value

$197.63

PnL

+$136.06

Record

14%

21-130 (151)

thestingsnake

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$330.06

Value

$184.3

PnL

+$54.12

Record

26%

40-112 (152)

omnibus-076daa

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$210.77

Value

$171.63

PnL

-$39.14

Record

36%

86-155 (241)

Eulhunter

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$129.17

Value

$136.09

PnL

+$33.06

Record

55%

37-30 (67)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Marcel Latak

Invested

$2.8

Value

$128.4

PnL

+$125.6

Record

5-77 (82)

Gaditima

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$153.24

Value

$110.03

PnL

-$35.55

Record

49%

36-37 (73)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$24

Value

$96.62

PnL

+$87.57

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$12.55

Value

$95.98

PnL

+$71.77

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

suitcase6628<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$70.24

Value

$57.44

PnL

-$12.8

Record

—

BillBenter2026<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$47.89

Value

$50.71

PnL

+$2.82

Record

16%

34-184 (218)

Pan9X<$100

Clement Chidekh

Invested

$11.37

Value

$27.33

PnL

+$5.05

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

ojgCTR<$100

Marcel Latak

Invested

$19.81

Value

$23.38

PnL

+$3.57

Record

33%

50-102 (152)

Research grade

NeutralClement Chidekh at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clement Chidekh

18 of 24 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+32 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Clement Chidekh. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpClement Chidekh 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrClement Chidekh 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedClement Chidekh 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Clement Chidekh 74% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clement Chidekh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.5%

92.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.