Knoxville: Aidan Mayo vs Michael Mmoh

17 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Michael Mmoh (68%) · Michael Mmoh at 96¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 16

Aidan Mayo4¢Michael Mmoh96¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Michael Mmoh

Consensus Traders

Michael Mmoh 68%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$-4.9K

Smart Money Entry

77.9¢ → 95.9¢

+23% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralMichael Mmoh at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Mmoh

17 of 25 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Aidan Mayo4%

Michael Mmoh96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michael Mmoh17 traders

Total Value$18.8K

Total Shares19,038

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Aidan Mayo8 traders

Total Value$184.71

Total Shares5,930

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Michael Mmoh — 68%Aidan Mayo — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Michael Mmohavg 78.9¢	$15.5K	$12.9K	$-2.6K	54% 1637-1401 (3038)
LI LightParadox	Michael Mmohavg 65.6¢	$1.2K	$1.8K	+$589.22	26% 226-653 (879)
MA MadridTime	Michael Mmohavg 93.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$42.79	26% 226-645 (871)
VE Venusian	Michael Mmohavg 66.2¢	$849.57	$755.73	-$93.83	25% 222-667 (889)
LI Limousin	Michael Mmohavg 89.3¢	$636.55	$677.78	+$41.23	25% 224-665 (889)
TH thestingsnake	Michael Mmohavg 87¢	$423.52	$333.44	-$54.76	19% 83-349 (432)
machinelearned	Michael Mmohavg 65.8¢	$318.85	$329.88	+$11.03	36% 363-638 (1001)
CI cigarettes	Michael Mmohavg 39¢	$81.18	$200.58	+$119.4	53% 5438-4880 (10318)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 20.1¢	$319.22	$192.96	-$126.26	50% 1421-1422 (2843)
└ Michael Mmoh leg	Michael Mmohavg 45¢	$69.76	$149.58	+$79.82
└ Aidan Mayo leg	Aidan Mayoavg 20.1¢	$249.46	$43.38	-$206.08
SU suitcase6628<$100	Michael Mmohavg 98.5¢	$98.5	$97	-$1.5	65% 164-90 (254)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 32.2¢	$488.8	$72.44	-$300.36	40% 83-125 (208)
AC Accomplished-FrameworkCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 62¢	$2.4K	$64.28	$-2.4K	— 4-3 (7)
GA Gaditima<$100	Michael Mmohavg 48.8¢	$26.93	$49.14	+$22.21	48% 77-82 (159)
TRCM<$100	Michael Mmohavg 37¢	$18.96	$45.61	+$26.65	9% 40-421 (461)
nigiri99<$100	Michael Mmohavg 48¢	$23.52	$43.61	+$20.09	52% 126-116 (242)
RN1CTR	Aidan Mayoavg 61¢	$212.19	$38.26	-$173.93	58% 3766-2722 (6488)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Michael Mmohavg 75.3¢	$18.07	$23.8	+$5.73	16% 90-467 (557)
PA Pan9X<$100	Michael Mmohavg 46¢	$10.11	$19.56	+$9.45	49% 433-456 (889)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Michael Mmohavg 98¢	$21.27	$16.84	-$4.43	50% 71-71 (142)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 42¢	$89.75	$7.48	-$82.27	24% 103-322 (425)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Michael Mmohavg 45¢	$3.18	$6.29	+$3.11	38% 209-339 (548)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Michael Mmohavg 47¢	$2.35	$4.45	+$2.1	25% 169-511 (680)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 12.5¢	$15.57	$1.18	-$14.39	17% 117-576 (693)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Aidan Mayoavg 52¢	$2.6	$0.5	-$2.1	31% 174-392 (566)
BA babybellsCTR	Aidan Mayoavg 41.7¢	$131.3	$0.43	-$96.69	19% 90-377 (467)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$15,521.97

Value

$12.9K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

54%

1637-1401 (3038)

LightParadox

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$1,231.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$589.22

Record

26%

226-653 (879)

MadridTime

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$1,399.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$42.79

Record

26%

226-645 (871)

Venusian

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$849.57

Value

$755.73

PnL

-$93.83

Record

25%

222-667 (889)

Limousin

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$636.55

Value

$677.78

PnL

+$41.23

Record

25%

224-665 (889)

thestingsnake

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$423.52

Value

$333.44

PnL

-$54.76

Record

19%

83-349 (432)

machinelearned

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$318.85

Value

$329.88

PnL

+$11.03

Record

36%

363-638 (1001)

cigarettes

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$81.18

Value

$200.58

PnL

+$119.4

Record

53%

5438-4880 (10318)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$319.22

Value

$192.96

PnL

-$126.26

Record

50%

1421-1422 (2843)

Both legs:

Michael Mmoh$69.7645¢+$79.82

Aidan Mayo$249.4620.1¢-$206.08

suitcase6628<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$98.5

Value

$97

PnL

-$1.5

Record

65%

164-90 (254)

thirdt1meCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$488.8

Value

$72.44

PnL

-$300.36

Record

40%

83-125 (208)

Accomplished-FrameworkCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$2,415.28

Value

$64.28

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

—

4-3 (7)

Gaditima<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$26.93

Value

$49.14

PnL

+$22.21

Record

48%

77-82 (159)

TRCM<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$18.96

Value

$45.61

PnL

+$26.65

Record

40-421 (461)

nigiri99<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$23.52

Value

$43.61

PnL

+$20.09

Record

52%

126-116 (242)

RN1CTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$212.19

Value

$38.26

PnL

-$173.93

Record

58%

3766-2722 (6488)

BillBenter2026<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$18.07

Value

$23.8

PnL

+$5.73

Record

16%

90-467 (557)

Pan9X<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$10.11

Value

$19.56

PnL

+$9.45

Record

49%

433-456 (889)

Eulhunter<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$21.27

Value

$16.84

PnL

-$4.43

Record

50%

71-71 (142)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$89.75

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$82.27

Record

24%

103-322 (425)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$3.18

Value

$6.29

PnL

+$3.11

Record

38%

209-339 (548)

ameisgoat11<$100

Michael Mmoh

Invested

$2.35

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$2.1

Record

25%

169-511 (680)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$15.57

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$14.39

Record

17%

117-576 (693)

sentrioCTR<$100

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.1

Record

31%

174-392 (566)

babybellsCTR

Aidan Mayo

Invested

$131.3

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$96.69

Record

19%

90-377 (467)

Research grade

NeutralMichael Mmoh at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Michael Mmoh

17 of 25 top traders (68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michael Mmoh wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.0%

95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.