Resolution Proposed
A resolution has been proposed and is in the challenge window. Awaiting UMA oracle settlement.
Lima: Lautaro Midon vs Miguel Tobon
13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Miguel Tobon (52%) · Miguel Tobon at 100¢ · $89K held · awaiting resolution
⏳
Pending
25
Miguel Tobon 52%
3 arb excluded
$88.9K
$-12.7K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 25 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE pelik | Miguel Tobonavg 99.9¢ | $40.0K | $40.0K | +$20 | 99% 1255-4 (1259) |
65 6512395314597884 | Miguel Tobonavg 59.6¢ | $10.2K | $11.1K | +$2.4K | 50% 3301-3257 (6558) |
 alpheclabs2 | Miguel Tobonavg 60.3¢ | $8.1K | $10.6K | +$2.5K | 44% 123-159 (282) |
MA MadridTimeCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 41.6¢ | $9.1K | $8.4K | -$673.38 | 31% 410-897 (1307) |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 42.6¢ | $7.4K | $5.5K | $-1.9K | 31% 412-918 (1330) |
 RN1CTR | Lautaro Midonavg 63¢ | $3.6K | $2.7K | -$855 | 57% 4059-3077 (7136) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Lautaro Midonavg 40.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.0K | -$143.07 | 40% 572-844 (1416) |
| └ Miguel Tobon leg | Miguel Tobonavg 54.4¢ | $1.0K | $1.6K | +$556.2 | |
| └ Lautaro Midon leg | Lautaro Midonavg 40.5¢ | $1.2K | $455.79 | -$699.27 | |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Lautaro Midonavg 38.6¢ | $2.9K | $1.8K | $-1.1K | 51% 1925-1864 (3789) |
| └ Lautaro Midon leg | Lautaro Midonavg 38.6¢ | $2.3K | $940.62 | $-1.3K | |
| └ Miguel Tobon leg | Miguel Tobonavg 62.2¢ | $645.62 | $872.07 | +$226.46 | |
CI cigarettes | Miguel Tobonavg 36¢ | $757.36 | $1.4K | +$630.12 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Miguel Tobonavg 99.9¢ | $1,000 | $996 | -$4 | 41% 3164-4511 (7675) |
38 38791873984189 | Miguel Tobonavg 56.8¢ | $984.76 | $880.35 | +$14.49 | 48% 1427-1570 (2997) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 44.5¢ | $2.7K | $771.95 | -$82.47 | 27% 143-385 (528) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Lautaro Midonavg 63.8¢ | $1.1K | $734.01 | -$199.82 | 52% 497-452 (949) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Miguel Tobonavg 56.1¢ | $416.23 | $399.59 | -$16.64 | 56% 3875-3035 (6910) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR | Lautaro Midonavg 42¢ | $336 | $340 | +$4 | 15% 150-841 (991) |
SU suitcase6628 | Miguel Tobonavg 58¢ | $199.8 | $329.84 | +$137.44 | 64% 279-159 (438) |
EU EulhunterCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 37.9¢ | $250.94 | $119.09 | -$44.85 | 50% 118-119 (237) |
 BasquetipsterCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 63¢ | $140 | $111.11 | -$28.89 | 6% 5-79 (84) |
LR lryyy | Miguel Tobonavg 86¢ | $130.58 | $110.85 | -$19.74 | 45% 257-309 (566) |
 tradecraft | Miguel Tobonavg 58.1¢ | $62.68 | $107.83 | +$45.15 | 20% 160-629 (789) |
VE VenusianARB<$100 | Lautaro Midonavg 38.4¢ | $1.7K | $103.62 | $-1.6K | 31% 410-923 (1333) |
| └ Miguel Tobon leg | Miguel Tobonavg 48.3¢ | $39.62 | $81.56 | +$41.94 | |
| └ Lautaro Midon leg | Lautaro Midonavg 38.4¢ | $1.7K | $22.06 | $-1.7K | |
SH SharkVision<$100 | Miguel Tobonavg 99.9¢ | $56.95 | $56.98 | +$0.03 | — 9-0 (9) |
PA Pan9XCTR | Lautaro Midonavg 50.2¢ | $353.38 | $49.09 | -$21.55 | 49% 692-733 (1425) |
MA MarquisDeMott<$100 | Miguel Tobonavg 99.1¢ | $35.58 | $35.72 | +$0.14 | 89% 39-5 (44) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Miguel Tobonavg 95¢ | $25.25 | $25 | -$0.25 | 62% 1329-801 (2130) |
Invested
$39,960
Value
$40.0K
PnL
+$20
Record
99%
1255-4 (1259)
Invested
$10,244.32
Value
$11.1K
PnL
+$2.4K
Record
50%
3301-3257 (6558)
alpheclabs2Invested
$8,091.07
Value
$10.6K
PnL
+$2.5K
Record
44%
123-159 (282)
Invested
$9,080.06
Value
$8.4K
PnL
-$673.38
Record
31%
410-897 (1307)
Invested
$7,442.75
Value
$5.5K
PnL
$-1.9K
Record
31%
412-918 (1330)
RN1CTRInvested
$3,603.64
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$855
Record
57%
4059-3077 (7136)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$2,175.62
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$143.07
Record
40%
572-844 (1416)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,912.86
Value
$1.8K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
51%
1925-1864 (3789)
Both legs:
Invested
$757.36
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$630.12
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$996
PnL
-$4
Record
41%
3164-4511 (7675)
Invested
$984.76
Value
$880.35
PnL
+$14.49
Record
48%
1427-1570 (2997)
Invested
$2,708.7
Value
$771.95
PnL
-$82.47
Record
27%
143-385 (528)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,119.15
Value
$734.01
PnL
-$199.82
Record
52%
497-452 (949)
Invested
$416.23
Value
$399.59
PnL
-$16.64
Record
56%
3875-3035 (6910)
Invested
$336
Value
$340
PnL
+$4
Record
15%
150-841 (991)
Invested
$199.8
Value
$329.84
PnL
+$137.44
Record
64%
279-159 (438)
Invested
$250.94
Value
$119.09
PnL
-$44.85
Record
50%
118-119 (237)
BasquetipsterCTRInvested
$140
Value
$111.11
PnL
-$28.89
Record
6%
5-79 (84)
Invested
$130.58
Value
$110.85
PnL
-$19.74
Record
45%
257-309 (566)
tradecraftInvested
$62.68
Value
$107.83
PnL
+$45.15
Record
20%
160-629 (789)
Invested
$1,733.22
Value
$103.62
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
31%
410-923 (1333)
Both legs:
Invested
$56.95
Value
$56.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
—
9-0 (9)
Invested
$353.38
Value
$49.09
PnL
-$21.55
Record
49%
692-733 (1425)
Invested
$35.58
Value
$35.72
PnL
+$0.14
Record
89%
39-5 (44)
Invested
$25.25
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.25
Record
62%
1329-801 (2130)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
pelik
Miguel Tobon — $40.0K
6512395314597884
Miguel Tobon — $11.1K
alpheclabs2
Miguel Tobon — $10.6K
MadridTime
CTRLautaro Midon — $8.4K
LightParadox
CTRLautaro Midon — $5.5K
RN1
CTRLautaro Midon — $2.7K
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
cigarettes
Miguel Tobon — $1.4K
xtxpleasecallme
Miguel Tobon — $996