Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Filip Misolic, while the market favors Juan Pablo Varillas (64%). 7 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Costa do Sauipe: Filip Misolic vs Juan Pablo Varillas

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Filip Misolic (37%) · Filip Misolic at 36¢ · $34K held · ends Nov 10

Filip Misolic36¢Juan Pablo Varillas64¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Filip Misolic

Consensus Traders

Filip Misolic 37%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.3K

Combined PnL

$4.8K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 36¢

-52% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Pablo Varillas 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Filip Misolic36%

Juan Pablo Varillas64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Juan Pablo Varillas12 traders

Total Value$17.1K

Total Shares26,631

Combined PnL+$10.6K

Filip Misolic7 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares17,982

Combined PnL$-5.8K

Juan Pablo Varillas — 63%Filip Misolic — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 12.7¢	$1.6K	$7.7K	+$6.1K	50% 20222-20549 (40771)
MA MadridTime	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 30.8¢	$3.4K	$7.1K	+$3.7K	52% 847-783 (1630)
RN1ARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 90.9¢	$9.5K	$6.6K	$-2.8K	53% 59089-51396 (110485)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 90.9¢	$9.0K	$3.6K	$-5.4K
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 10¢	$477.1	$3.1K	+$2.6K
65 6512395314597884CTR	Filip Misolicavg 72.9¢	$11.0K	$6.6K	$-4.4K	51% 4510-4384 (8894)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 80.9¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$269.88	43% 10231-13295 (23526)
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 10.3¢	$210.27	$1.3K	+$1.1K
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 80.9¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.4K
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR	Filip Misolicavg 81.3¢	$2.5K	$1.1K	$-1.4K	52% 6722-6264 (12986)
TH thestingsnake	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 40¢	$801.63	$754.61	+$229.47	60% 4234-2832 (7066)
LI LightParadox	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 32.5¢	$347.68	$685.11	+$337.43	53% 921-802 (1723)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 90.5¢	$544.46	$296.32	-$248.14	54% 6063-5072 (11135)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 90.5¢	$489.33	$194.76	-$294.57
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 34.7¢	$55.13	$101.56	+$46.43
TRCM	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 31.1¢	$116.44	$240	+$123.56	55% 4006-3232 (7238)
MA marketmesh	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 38.7¢	$120.8	$199.56	+$2.36	58% 101-72 (173)
VE Venusian	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 38.6¢	$107.19	$177.6	+$70.41	53% 928-828 (1756)
nigiri99	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 38¢	$79.76	$134.4	+$3.19	46% 8263-9657 (17920)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Filip Misolicavg 77.1¢	$82.6	$68.24	-$14.35	52% 14128-12900 (27028)
└ Filip Misolic leg	Filip Misolicavg 77.1¢	$77.6	$36.24	-$41.35
└ Juan Pablo Varillas leg	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 10¢	$5	$32	+$27
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 31¢	$24.22	$49.92	+$25.7	50% 4090-4063 (8153)
CI cigarettes<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 36¢	$18	$32	+$14	54% 22041-19146 (41187)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 57.8¢	$24.26	$26.88	+$2.62	57% 18992-14056 (33048)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 61.7¢	$18.23	$17.66	-$0.57	56% 7605-6096 (13701)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 98.6¢	$31.54	$11.52	-$20.02	47% 10150-11471 (21621)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 62¢	$10	$6.48	-$3.52	74% 2373-823 (3196)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Juan Pablo Varillasavg 41¢	$2.7	$4.21	+$1.51	45% 10667-12831 (23498)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Filip Misolicavg 91.4¢	$215.12	$1.23	+$5.89	56% 1909-1473 (3382)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Filip Misolicavg 60¢	$1.8	$1.08	-$0.72	58% 44668-32527 (77195)

omnibus-076daa

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$1,623.52

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$6.1K

Record

50%

20222-20549 (40771)

MadridTime

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$3,425.88

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$3.7K

Record

52%

847-783 (1630)

RN1ARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$9,463.49

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-2.8K

Record

53%

59089-51396 (110485)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$8,986.3990.9¢$-5.4K

Juan Pablo Varillas$477.110¢+$2.6K

6512395314597884CTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$10,977.11

Value

$6.6K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

51%

4510-4384 (8894)

NotJumpARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2,673.13

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$269.88

Record

43%

10231-13295 (23526)

Both legs:

Juan Pablo Varillas$210.2710.3¢+$1.1K

Filip Misolic$2,462.8780.9¢$-1.4K

CandleHammerDrumsCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$2,518.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

52%

6722-6264 (12986)

thestingsnake

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$801.63

Value

$754.61

PnL

+$229.47

Record

60%

4234-2832 (7066)

LightParadox

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$347.68

Value

$685.11

PnL

+$337.43

Record

53%

921-802 (1723)

EulhunterARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$544.46

Value

$296.32

PnL

-$248.14

Record

54%

6063-5072 (11135)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$489.3390.5¢-$294.57

Juan Pablo Varillas$55.1334.7¢+$46.43

TRCM

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$116.44

Value

$240

PnL

+$123.56

Record

55%

4006-3232 (7238)

marketmesh

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$120.8

Value

$199.56

PnL

+$2.36

Record

58%

101-72 (173)

Venusian

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$107.19

Value

$177.6

PnL

+$70.41

Record

53%

928-828 (1756)

nigiri99

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$79.76

Value

$134.4

PnL

+$3.19

Record

46%

8263-9657 (17920)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$82.6

Value

$68.24

PnL

-$14.35

Record

52%

14128-12900 (27028)

Both legs:

Filip Misolic$77.677.1¢-$41.35

Juan Pablo Varillas$510¢+$27

NatoAlfista<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$24.22

Value

$49.92

PnL

+$25.7

Record

50%

4090-4063 (8153)

cigarettes<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$18

Value

$32

PnL

+$14

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

BillBenter2026<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$24.26

Value

$26.88

PnL

+$2.62

Record

57%

18992-14056 (33048)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$18.23

Value

$17.66

PnL

-$0.57

Record

56%

7605-6096 (13701)

dips.CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$31.54

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$20.02

Record

47%

10150-11471 (21621)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$10

Value

$6.48

PnL

-$3.52

Record

74%

2373-823 (3196)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Juan Pablo Varillas

Invested

$2.7

Value

$4.21

PnL

+$1.51

Record

45%

10667-12831 (23498)

SchruteBucksCTR

Filip Misolic

Invested

$215.12

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$5.89

Record

56%

1909-1473 (3382)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Filip Misolic

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

44668-32527 (77195)

Research grade

NeutralFilip Misolic at 36%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Filip Misolic

7 of 19 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors Juan Pablo Varillas 64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Filip Misolic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.2%

36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$162.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

262.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.