Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sebastian Sorger, while the market favors Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (59%). 11 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bratislava 2: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Sebastian Sorger

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Sebastian Sorger (55%) · Sebastian Sorger at 42¢ · $104K held · ends Nov 9

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard59¢Sebastian Sorger41¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sebastian Sorger

Consensus Traders

Sebastian Sorger 55%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$103.9K

Combined PnL

-$221.31

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 41.5¢

-10% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Sorger at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Sorger

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard59%

Sebastian Sorger42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sebastian Sorger11 traders

Total Value$39.2K

Total Shares84,979

Combined PnL-$91.67

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard9 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares15,608

Combined PnL-$129.64

Sebastian Sorger — 55%Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 47.9¢	$24.6K	$24.4K	-$201.01	50% 19818-20161 (39979)
RN1ARB<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 40.1¢	$17.3K	$18.0K	+$733.96	54% 58149-50375 (108524)
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 40.1¢	$11.2K	$11.2K	-$18.52
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 53.4¢	$6.1K	$6.8K	+$752.48
CA CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 40.4¢	$12.4K	$12.5K	+$41.08	52% 5704-5269 (10973)
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 40.4¢	$7.9K	$7.8K	-$85.4
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 58.4¢	$4.5K	$4.7K	+$126.48
WoaifacaiCTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 45¢	$11.9K	$11.8K	-$132.67	59% 184-128 (312)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 64¢	$9.5K	$9.0K	-$410.29	49% 2928-3047 (5975)
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 41.4¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	+$11.92
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 64¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$422.21
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 58.8¢	$5.6K	$6.1K	+$419.69	58% 48519-34669 (83188)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 58.8¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$51.38
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 31.2¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$368.31
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 53¢	$5.3K	$5.2K	-$50	51% 127-123 (250)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 76.2¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$414.84	51% 17616-16619 (34235)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 76.2¢	$2.6K	$2.0K	-$613.33
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 36.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$198.49
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 73.4¢	$3.7K	$3.5K	-$169.11	44% 9900-12847 (22747)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 73.4¢	$2.3K	$1.9K	-$414.61
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 34¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$245.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 37.1¢	$3.9K	$3.0K	+$8.47	47% 13021-14584 (27605)
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 37.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$146.75
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 63.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$138.28
alpheclabs2CTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 38¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$193.97	49% 95-100 (195)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 56¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.39	48% 1153-1263 (2416)
SE sentrio	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 52¢	$1.0K	$862.15	-$164.2	50% 25008-24730 (49738)
0X 0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 63.1¢	$489.95	$585.79	+$95.84	45% 98-119 (217)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 43.5¢	$256.01	$314.85	+$68.21	60% 4152-2785 (6937)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 63.8¢	$285.82	$286.48	+$0.65	52% 14034-12791 (26825)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 63.8¢	$160.58	$151.13	-$9.46
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 37¢	$125.24	$135.35	+$10.11
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 66.8¢	$285.56	$282.49	-$3.07	54% 5909-4954 (10863)
└ Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard leg	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 66.8¢	$241.1	$216.6	-$24.5
└ Sebastian Sorger leg	Sebastian Sorgeravg 27¢	$44.46	$65.89	+$21.43
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 42¢	$180.77	$178.62	-$2.15	53% 3237-2846 (6083)
poshposhCTR	Sebastian Sorgeravg 38¢	$114.09	$124.72	+$10.62	58% 11437-8289 (19726)
HRTrading<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 88.7¢	$87.56	$88.14	+$0.58	53% 6373-5762 (12135)
VeryLucky888<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 78¢	$46.09	$54.36	+$8.27	58% 43613-31723 (75336)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 37.2¢	$82.26	$54.15	-$28.12	47% 10056-11172 (21228)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Sebastian Sorgeravg 38¢	$19	$20.75	+$1.75	56% 18390-14714 (33104)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 86¢	$26.5	$18.52	-$7.99	57% 18872-13973 (32845)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardavg 85.3¢	$13.8	$14.57	+$0.77	51% 1000-963 (1963)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$24,576.21

Value

$24.4K

PnL

-$201.01

Record

50%

19818-20161 (39979)

RN1ARB<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$17,309.88

Value

$18.0K

PnL

+$733.96

Record

54%

58149-50375 (108524)

Both legs:

Sebastian Sorger$11,223.3240.1¢-$18.52

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$6,086.5653.4¢+$752.48

CandleHammerDrumsARB<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$12,427.14

Value

$12.5K

PnL

+$41.08

Record

52%

5704-5269 (10973)

Both legs:

Sebastian Sorger$7,880.7340.4¢-$85.4

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$4,546.4158.4¢+$126.48

WoaifacaiCTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$11,940.55

Value

$11.8K

PnL

-$132.67

Record

59%

184-128 (312)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$9,451.17

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$410.29

Record

49%

2928-3047 (5975)

Both legs:

Sebastian Sorger$4,567.4141.4¢+$11.92

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$4,883.7564¢-$422.21

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$5,648.48

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$419.69

Record

58%

48519-34669 (83188)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$4,419.6358.8¢+$51.38

Sebastian Sorger$1,228.8531.2¢+$368.31

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$5,300

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

51%

127-123 (250)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$4,076.59

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$414.84

Record

51%

17616-16619 (34235)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$2,641.1476.2¢-$613.33

Sebastian Sorger$1,435.4536.5¢+$198.49

NotJumpARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$3,674.64

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$169.11

Record

44%

9900-12847 (22747)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$2,277.9373.4¢-$414.61

Sebastian Sorger$1,396.7134¢+$245.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$3,888.41

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$8.47

Record

47%

13021-14584 (27605)

Both legs:

Sebastian Sorger$1,663.9437.1¢+$146.75

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$1,267.7263.8¢-$138.28

alpheclabs2CTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$2,105.96

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$193.97

Record

49%

95-100 (195)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,499.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$13.39

Record

48%

1153-1263 (2416)

sentrio

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$1,026.35

Value

$862.15

PnL

-$164.2

Record

50%

25008-24730 (49738)

0x9d8e0e3ce4c0a7a13b9b2926b7a5c4d2ea5b3ab8

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$489.95

Value

$585.79

PnL

+$95.84

Record

45%

98-119 (217)

thestingsnakeCTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$256.01

Value

$314.85

PnL

+$68.21

Record

60%

4152-2785 (6937)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$285.82

Value

$286.48

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

14034-12791 (26825)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$160.5863.8¢-$9.46

Sebastian Sorger$125.2437¢+$10.11

EulhunterARB<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$285.56

Value

$282.49

PnL

-$3.07

Record

54%

5909-4954 (10863)

Both legs:

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard$241.166.8¢-$24.5

Sebastian Sorger$44.4627¢+$21.43

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$180.77

Value

$178.62

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

3237-2846 (6083)

poshposhCTR

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$114.09

Value

$124.72

PnL

+$10.62

Record

58%

11437-8289 (19726)

HRTrading<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$87.56

Value

$88.14

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

6373-5762 (12135)

VeryLucky888<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$46.09

Value

$54.36

PnL

+$8.27

Record

58%

43613-31723 (75336)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$82.26

Value

$54.15

PnL

-$28.12

Record

47%

10056-11172 (21228)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Sebastian Sorger

Invested

$19

Value

$20.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

56%

18390-14714 (33104)

BillBenter2026<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$26.5

Value

$18.52

PnL

-$7.99

Record

57%

18872-13973 (32845)

ferdinand2<$100

Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.57

PnL

+$0.77

Record

51%

1000-963 (1963)

Research grade

NeutralSebastian Sorger at 42%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sebastian Sorger

11 of 20 top traders (55%)Underdog side (market favors Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 59%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sebastian Sorger wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.