SE Palmeiras vs. Clube do Remo: O/U 6.5

7 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Over (37%) · Over at 100¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 5

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 37%

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$5.4K

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$19.5K

Total Shares21,729

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Under12 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares14,130

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Over — 37%Under — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 43.4¢	$6.0K	$8.2K	+$2.3K	51% 25776-24479 (50255)
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Overavg 85.5¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$374.81	55% 1192-969 (2161)
ZaiZoiBele	Overavg 62.6¢	$2.8K	$4.2K	+$1.4K	80% 5297-1356 (6653)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$2.9K	$2.6K	-$284.79	52% 1388-1305 (2693)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$951.96	$1.7K	+$726.38	51% 1392-1360 (2752)
RN1CTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$229.46	53% 61386-53697 (115083)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 50.5¢	$521.42	$895.22	+$373.8	53% 1439-1280 (2719)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 40¢	$300.7	$651.46	+$350.76	51% 37678-36905 (74583)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 71¢	$446.13	$499.51	+$53.38	47% 11740-13459 (25199)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Underavg 46¢	$289.06	$253.37	-$35.69	48% 5445-5956 (11401)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 11.8¢	$184.47	$239.5	+$55.04	49% 14716-15388 (30104)
claudionetotraderCTR	Underavg 13.6¢	$144.77	$118.46	-$26.31	55% 1385-1120 (2505)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 55.1¢	$94.84	$102.5	+$7.66	84% 14866-2869 (17735)
IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100	Underavg 15.4¢	$85.07	$85.73	+$0.66	33% 591-1214 (1805)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 38.5¢	$51.35	$65.56	+$14.21	50% 1337-1318 (2655)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 88.4¢	$51.06	$47.06	-$4	66% 24278-12377 (36655)
SM SmallcoinsCTR	Underavg 15.7¢	$104.35	$0.33	-$104.02	53% 1203-1072 (2275)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 7.8¢	$46.92	$0.09	-$11.83	47% 4064-4618 (8682)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 43.6¢	$15.8	$0.02	-$15.78	50% 25837-25546 (51383)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$5,951.08

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

51%

25776-24479 (50255)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Over

Invested

$5,834.9

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$374.81

Record

55%

1192-969 (2161)

ZaiZoiBele

Over

Invested

$2,802.6

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

80%

5297-1356 (6653)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$2,882.76

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$284.79

Record

52%

1388-1305 (2693)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$951.96

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$726.38

Record

51%

1392-1360 (2752)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,166.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$229.46

Record

53%

61386-53697 (115083)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$521.42

Value

$895.22

PnL

+$373.8

Record

53%

1439-1280 (2719)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$300.7

Value

$651.46

PnL

+$350.76

Record

51%

37678-36905 (74583)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$446.13

Value

$499.51

PnL

+$53.38

Record

47%

11740-13459 (25199)

SlickRick123CTR

Under

Invested

$289.06

Value

$253.37

PnL

-$35.69

Record

48%

5445-5956 (11401)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$184.47

Value

$239.5

PnL

+$55.04

Record

49%

14716-15388 (30104)

claudionetotraderCTR

Under

Invested

$144.77

Value

$118.46

PnL

-$26.31

Record

55%

1385-1120 (2505)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$94.84

Value

$102.5

PnL

+$7.66

Record

84%

14866-2869 (17735)

IIIllllllIIIIIIIllllllllIIIIIIIIIIIllllllCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$85.07

Value

$85.73

PnL

+$0.66

Record

33%

591-1214 (1805)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.35

Value

$65.56

PnL

+$14.21

Record

50%

1337-1318 (2655)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$51.06

Value

$47.06

PnL

-$4

Record

66%

24278-12377 (36655)

SmallcoinsCTR

Under

Invested

$104.35

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$104.02

Record

53%

1203-1072 (2275)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$46.92

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$11.83

Record

47%

4064-4618 (8682)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$15.78

Record

50%

25837-25546 (51383)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 19 top traders (37%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.