Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2026-11-07?

20 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (87%) · No at 90¢ · $48K held · ended Nov 7

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 87%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$47.8K

Combined PnL

-$683.83

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 90¢

-4% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No20 traders

Total Value$43.2K

Total Shares46,897

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Yes3 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares32,418

Combined PnL+$988.4

No — 87%Yes — 13%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.8¢	$25.5K	$24.0K	$-1.5K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1	Noavg 88.7¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$114.07	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
oieshfn345	Noavg 87.2¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$13	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 94.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$20.93	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 10.8¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$148.3	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.5¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$160.02	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$29.14	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
6kke1tCTR	Yesavg 1.7¢	$236.63	$1.4K	+$1.1K	46% 905-1067 (1972)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 91.5¢	$975.75	$956.3	-$1.43	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90¢	$1.0K	$905	+$5	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
LI Limousin	Noavg 91.6¢	$842.82	$827.76	-$15.06	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
VE Venusian	Noavg 90.9¢	$807.8	$799.88	-$7.92	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$387.06	$739.98	+$352.91	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 1.8¢	$84.56	$466.26	+$381.71
└ No leg	Noavg 99.5¢	$302.51	$273.71	-$28.8
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Yesavg 12.8¢	$527.1	$436	-$91.1	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.8¢	$427.08	$333.71	-$93.37
└ No leg	Noavg 88¢	$100.02	$102.29	+$2.27
AH aHjCz	Noavg 99.5¢	$408.32	$369.15	-$39.17	36% 6093-11041 (17134)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 94.7¢	$1.0K	$288.42	+$0.39	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 88¢	$159.57	$167.66	+$8.09	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 89.3¢	$604.48	$157.64	+$5.21	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
NM NM-P	Noavg 89¢	$151.16	$152.86	+$0.85	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 89¢	$136.06	$137.59	+$1.53	64% 2039-1134 (3173)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$114.49	$135.62	+$21.13	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ No leg	Noavg 99.9¢	$98.92	$89.12	-$9.8
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.3¢	$15.57	$46.5	+$30.94
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$24.68	$28.41	+$3.73	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Noavg 92.6¢	$22.23	$21.6	-$0.63	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Noavg 90¢	$11.7	$11.7	+$0	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$6.81	$6.17	-$0.63	56% 8738-6795 (15533)

Flaznorp

Invested

$25,517.33

Value

$24.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

RN1

Invested

$5,975.64

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$114.07

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

oieshfn345

Invested

$3,201.63

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$13

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$1,875.99

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$20.93

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,992.12

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$148.3

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

SnakeBall

Invested

$1,895.39

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$160.02

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$1,584.54

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$29.14

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

6kke1tCTR

Yes

Invested

$236.63

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

46%

905-1067 (1972)

38791873984189

Invested

$975.75

Value

$956.3

PnL

-$1.43

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

GC-P

Invested

$1,000

Value

$905

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Limousin

Invested

$842.82

Value

$827.76

PnL

-$15.06

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Venusian

Invested

$807.8

Value

$799.88

PnL

-$7.92

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Invested

$387.06

Value

$739.98

PnL

+$352.91

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Both legs:

Yes$84.561.8¢+$381.71

No$302.5199.5¢-$28.8

Anon455ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$527.1

Value

$436

PnL

-$91.1

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

Both legs:

Yes$427.0812.8¢-$93.37

No$100.0288¢+$2.27

aHjCz

Invested

$408.32

Value

$369.15

PnL

-$39.17

Record

36%

6093-11041 (17134)

Pan9X

Invested

$1,041.77

Value

$288.42

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$159.57

Value

$167.66

PnL

+$8.09

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$604.48

Value

$157.64

PnL

+$5.21

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

NM-P

Invested

$151.16

Value

$152.86

PnL

+$0.85

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$136.06

Value

$137.59

PnL

+$1.53

Record

64%

2039-1134 (3173)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Invested

$114.49

Value

$135.62

PnL

+$21.13

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Invested

$24.68

Value

$28.41

PnL

+$3.73

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$22.23

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0.63

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

Oddstorm<$100

Invested

$11.7

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Invested

$6.81

Value

$6.17

PnL

-$0.63

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 23 top traders (87%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.4%

90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.