Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-11-08?

19 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$26.1K

Combined PnL

-$105.24

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 99.4¢

+10% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 23 top traders (83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No19 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares25,617

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares20,035

Combined PnL$-1.2K

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XW xwingboy	Noavg 84¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$446.43	66% 368-190 (558)
RN1	Noavg 98.2¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$13.5	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98.6¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$19.46	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
AN Anon455	Noavg 84¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$139.75	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 98.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$10.15	46% 1997-2348 (4345)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82.8¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$124.44	50% 32547-32694 (65241)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$2.6K	$1.4K	$-1.2K	51% 6914-6557 (13471)
GC GC-P	Noavg 83.9¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	+$88.92	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-P	Noavg 84¢	$1.0K	$951.13	+$77.13	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 91.6¢	$860.57	$934	+$73.43	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 82¢	$928.58	$849.65	+$88.21	67% 3153-1550 (4703)
VE Venusian	Noavg 83.9¢	$314.65	$287.9	+$23.8	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
AV averagejoetraders	Noavg 84¢	$168	$183	+$15	55% 681-557 (1238)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Noavg 90¢	$186.66	$170.79	+$2.8	53% 685-609 (1294)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 84¢	$106.31	$104.91	-$1.41	48% 2081-2289 (4370)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 91.8¢	$273.51	$91.32	+$18.74	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 83¢	$45.35	$41.5	+$3.85	53% 15485-13736 (29221)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 82.4¢	$287	$24.42	-$3.58	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VA Vampiro1CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$50	$19.47	-$30.53	77% 4137-1217 (5354)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 84¢	$13.51	$12.46	+$0.83	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$11.67	$5.84	-$5.84	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.8¢	$6.5	$3.5	-$3.01	46% 3487-4033 (7520)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 85¢	$2.08	$1.91	+$0.14	65% 25411-13605 (39016)

xwingboy

Invested

$4,999.99

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$446.43

Record

66%

368-190 (558)

RN1

Invested

$4,350.32

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$13.5

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

SnakeBall

Invested

$4,306.13

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$19.46

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

Anon455

Invested

$2,690.51

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$139.75

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$1,562.31

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$10.15

Record

46%

1997-2348 (4345)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,495.42

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$124.44

Record

50%

32547-32694 (65241)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,575.98

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

51%

6914-6557 (13471)

GC-P

Invested

$1,181.57

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.92

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-P

Invested

$1,034

Value

$951.13

PnL

+$77.13

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

Flaznorp

Invested

$860.57

Value

$934

PnL

+$73.43

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$928.58

Value

$849.65

PnL

+$88.21

Record

67%

3153-1550 (4703)

Venusian

Invested

$314.65

Value

$287.9

PnL

+$23.8

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

averagejoetraders

Invested

$168

Value

$183

PnL

+$15

Record

55%

681-557 (1238)

oxe78sh4w98

Invested

$186.66

Value

$170.79

PnL

+$2.8

Record

53%

685-609 (1294)

LightParadox

Invested

$106.31

Value

$104.91

PnL

-$1.41

Record

48%

2081-2289 (4370)

Pan9X

Invested

$273.51

Value

$91.32

PnL

+$18.74

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$45.35

Value

$41.5

PnL

+$3.85

Record

53%

15485-13736 (29221)

38791873984189

Invested

$287

Value

$24.42

PnL

-$3.58

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Vampiro1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50

Value

$19.47

PnL

-$30.53

Record

77%

4137-1217 (5354)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$13.51

Value

$12.46

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.67

Value

$5.84

PnL

-$5.84

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.5

Value

$3.5

PnL

-$3.01

Record

46%

3487-4033 (7520)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$2.08

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.14

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

19 of 23 top traders (83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

79% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 77% · 13

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.