Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Michigan Wolverines

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Michigan Wolverines (36%) · Michigan Wolverines at 100¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 12

Marquette Golden Eagles<1¢Michigan Wolverines>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Michigan Wolverines

Consensus Traders

Michigan Wolverines 36%

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

-$222.19

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 99.5¢

+25% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMichigan Wolverines at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan Wolverines

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Marquette Golden Eagles1%

Michigan Wolverines100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Michigan Wolverines8 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares16,293

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Marquette Golden Eagles14 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares19,618

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Michigan Wolverines — 36%Marquette Golden Eagles — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Michigan Wolverinesavg 78.9¢	$9.6K	$11.8K	+$2.2K	58% 3212-2312 (5524)
RN1	Michigan Wolverinesavg 82.3¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$311.2	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
38 38791873984189	Michigan Wolverinesavg 76.7¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	+$160.49	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 38¢	$1.0K	$927.64	-$108.48	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Michigan Wolverinesavg 86.9¢	$844.15	$741.4	-$102.75	55% 719-584 (1303)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 39¢	$771.36	$684.15	-$87.21	47% 299-342 (641)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 40¢	$734.25	$624.11	-$110.14	54% 15-13 (28)
TH thirdt1me	Michigan Wolverinesavg 78.4¢	$682.89	$581.74	+$37.55	43% 125-165 (290)
0xheavy888CTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 40¢	$400	$340	-$60	55% 205-165 (370)
OJ ojg	Michigan Wolverinesavg 70.8¢	$318.66	$311.22	+$28.06	43% 140-183 (323)
PA Pan9X	Michigan Wolverinesavg 86.8¢	$454.44	$300.65	+$37.29	49% 692-733 (1425)
HI hi774cCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 40¢	$270.71	$230.11	-$40.61	14% 77-472 (549)
US User7429	Michigan Wolverinesavg 86¢	$103.27	$101.47	-$1.8	25% 117-356 (473)
VeryLucky888CTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 39.5¢	$154.8	$99.28	-$15.52	52% 497-452 (949)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 29.5¢	$456.77	$79.88	-$376.89	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 12.9¢	$913.2	$35.29	-$877.91	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 17.9¢	$184.48	$5.16	-$179.32	31% 412-918 (1330)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 39.3¢	$5.9	$5.1	-$0.8	34% 327-634 (961)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 28.7¢	$254.65	$4.44	-$250.2	31% 410-897 (1307)
LI LimousinCTR	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 26.1¢	$142.7	$2.73	-$139.97	30% 401-920 (1321)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 32¢	$1	$1.06	+$0.06	9% 40-430 (470)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Marquette Golden Eaglesavg 9¢	$13.66	$0.76	-$12.9	31% 410-923 (1333)

takeormake

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$9,628.81

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

58%

3212-2312 (5524)

RN1

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$1,600.19

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$311.2

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

38791873984189

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$1,225.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$160.49

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$1,036.12

Value

$927.64

PnL

-$108.48

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$844.15

Value

$741.4

PnL

-$102.75

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

SnakeBallCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$771.36

Value

$684.15

PnL

-$87.21

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$734.25

Value

$624.11

PnL

-$110.14

Record

54%

15-13 (28)

thirdt1me

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$682.89

Value

$581.74

PnL

+$37.55

Record

43%

125-165 (290)

0xheavy888CTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$400

Value

$340

PnL

-$60

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

ojg

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$318.66

Value

$311.22

PnL

+$28.06

Record

43%

140-183 (323)

Pan9X

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$454.44

Value

$300.65

PnL

+$37.29

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

hi774cCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$270.71

Value

$230.11

PnL

-$40.61

Record

14%

77-472 (549)

User7429

Michigan Wolverines

Invested

$103.27

Value

$101.47

PnL

-$1.8

Record

25%

117-356 (473)

VeryLucky888CTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$154.8

Value

$99.28

PnL

-$15.52

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$456.77

Value

$79.88

PnL

-$376.89

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

FlaznorpCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$913.2

Value

$35.29

PnL

-$877.91

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

LightParadoxCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$184.48

Value

$5.16

PnL

-$179.32

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.1

PnL

-$0.8

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

MadridTimeCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$254.65

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$250.2

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

LimousinCTR

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$142.7

Value

$2.73

PnL

-$139.97

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

40-430 (470)

VenusianCTR<$100

Marquette Golden Eagles

Invested

$13.66

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$12.9

Record

31%

410-923 (1333)

Research grade

AvoidMichigan Wolverines at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Michigan Wolverines

8 of 22 top traders (36%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Michigan Wolverines wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.