Arkansas vs. Auburn

15 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Auburn (71%) · Auburn at 79¢ · $99K held · ended Nov 7

Arkansas21¢Auburn79¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Auburn

Consensus Traders

Auburn 71%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$99.3K

Combined PnL

$346.75

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 79¢

+14% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralAuburn at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Auburn

15 of 21 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Arkansas21%

Auburn79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Auburn15 traders

Total Value$65.9K

Total Shares78,927

Combined PnL+$5.1K

Arkansas6 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares49,771

Combined PnL$-4.7K

Auburn — 71%Arkansas — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Auburnavg 72.4¢	$19.5K	$21.2K	+$1.7K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
0xheavy888	Auburnavg 77¢	$15.4K	$15.8K	+$400	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
65 6512395314597884	Auburnavg 65.7¢	$12.2K	$12.8K	+$578.01	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RN1ARB<$100	Auburnavg 63.5¢	$10.0K	$10.0K	-$47.07	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 63.5¢	$5.7K	$7.1K	+$1.4K
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 31.6¢	$4.3K	$2.9K	$-1.4K
CM cm2897ARB<$100	Auburnavg 51.3¢	$7.2K	$7.4K	+$208.77	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 51.3¢	$3.7K	$5.7K	+$2.0K
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 44.3¢	$3.4K	$1.6K	$-1.8K
FE ferrariChampions2026	Auburnavg 60¢	$4.5K	$5.9K	+$1.4K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Arkansasavg 23¢	$6.2K	$5.7K	-$543.17	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PR primmCTR	Arkansasavg 42.5¢	$7.1K	$3.5K	$-3.6K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
OJ ojg	Auburnavg 61.9¢	$2.8K	$3.0K	+$201.19	43% 838-1096 (1934)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Auburnavg 70.3¢	$3.0K	$2.8K	-$147.59	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 70.3¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$248.27
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 35.2¢	$982.59	$586.73	-$395.86
38 38791873984189	Auburnavg 76.7¢	$4.6K	$2.6K	-$553.02	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Auburnavg 57¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$64.28	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 57¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$539.29
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 42.8¢	$1.2K	$581.07	-$603.57
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Auburnavg 45¢	$1.1K	$2.0K	+$853.4	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Auburnavg 68¢	$680	$790	+$110	49% 1142-1178 (2320)
AV averagejoetraders	Auburnavg 51.7¢	$471.07	$719.45	+$248.38	57% 676-519 (1195)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Auburnavg 52¢	$453.1	$688.39	+$235.29	53% 626-550 (1176)
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	Arkansasavg 39.2¢	$1.1K	$589.73	-$510.82	44% 330-424 (754)
LI LimousinCTR	Arkansasavg 22.5¢	$431.4	$402.38	-$29.02	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X	Auburnavg 74.2¢	$577.2	$325.22	-$83.4	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Arkansasavg 23.4¢	$232.24	$208.66	-$23.58	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Auburnavg 51.6¢	$189.16	$208.5	+$19.35	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
└ Auburn leg	Auburnavg 51.6¢	$108.47	$166.22	+$57.74
└ Arkansas leg	Arkansasavg 40.1¢	$80.68	$42.28	-$38.4
PT PT-S7<$100	Auburnavg 45¢	$55.35	$97.17	+$41.82	49% 3284-3450 (6734)
PA pauleta23<$100	Auburnavg 44¢	$20	$35.93	+$15.93	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Auburnavg 78.5¢	$32.33	$32.53	+$0.2	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Arkansasavg 34¢	$41.48	$25.62	-$15.86	56% 8963-7033 (15996)

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Auburn

Invested

$19,488.12

Value

$21.2K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

0xheavy888

Auburn

Invested

$15,399.99

Value

$15.8K

PnL

+$400

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

6512395314597884

Auburn

Invested

$12,201.32

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$578.01

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RN1ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$10,022.94

Value

$10.0K

PnL

-$47.07

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Auburn$5,718.9263.5¢+$1.4K

Arkansas$4,304.0231.6¢$-1.4K

cm2897ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$7,174.48

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$208.77

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

Both legs:

Auburn$3,730.0851.3¢+$2.0K

Arkansas$3,444.444.3¢$-1.8K

ferrariChampions2026

Auburn

Invested

$4,494.61

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

MadridTimeCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$6,246.46

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$543.17

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

primmCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$7,132.32

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-3.6K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

ojg

Auburn

Invested

$2,818.93

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$201.19

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$2,990.54

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$147.59

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Auburn$2,007.9570.3¢+$248.27

Arkansas$982.5935.2¢-$395.86

38791873984189

Auburn

Invested

$4,641.1

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$553.02

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$2,584.8

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$64.28

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

Auburn$1,400.1657¢+$539.29

Arkansas$1,184.6442.8¢-$603.57

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Auburn

Invested

$1,129.5

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$853.4

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

0xfFFF6537

Auburn

Invested

$680

Value

$790

PnL

+$110

Record

49%

1142-1178 (2320)

averagejoetraders

Auburn

Invested

$471.07

Value

$719.45

PnL

+$248.38

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

oxe78sh4w98

Auburn

Invested

$453.1

Value

$688.39

PnL

+$235.29

Record

53%

626-550 (1176)

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$1,100.54

Value

$589.73

PnL

-$510.82

Record

44%

330-424 (754)

LimousinCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$431.4

Value

$402.38

PnL

-$29.02

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X

Auburn

Invested

$577.2

Value

$325.22

PnL

-$83.4

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LightParadoxCTR

Arkansas

Invested

$232.24

Value

$208.66

PnL

-$23.58

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Auburn

Invested

$189.16

Value

$208.5

PnL

+$19.35

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

Both legs:

Auburn$108.4751.6¢+$57.74

Arkansas$80.6840.1¢-$38.4

PT-S7<$100

Auburn

Invested

$55.35

Value

$97.17

PnL

+$41.82

Record

49%

3284-3450 (6734)

pauleta23<$100

Auburn

Invested

$20

Value

$35.93

PnL

+$15.93

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Flaznorp<$100

Auburn

Invested

$32.33

Value

$32.53

PnL

+$0.2

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

13897651CTR<$100

Arkansas

Invested

$41.48

Value

$25.62

PnL

-$15.86

Record

56%

8963-7033 (15996)

Research grade

NeutralAuburn at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Auburn

15 of 21 top traders (71%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Auburn wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.