Hawai'i vs. UTEP

14 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Hawai'i (54%) · Hawai'i at 80¢ · $39K held · ended Nov 8

Hawai'i80¢UTEP20¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hawai'i

Consensus Traders

Hawai'i 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$39.0K

Combined PnL

$163.77

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 80¢

+7% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

14 of 26 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawai'i80%

UTEP20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawai'i14 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares45,148

Combined PnL+$233.41

UTEP12 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares17,474

Combined PnL-$69.64

Hawai'i — 54%UTEP — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHawai'i 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Hawai'iavg 79¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$57.99	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$46.28	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Hawai'iavg 71.5¢	$6.8K	$6.7K	-$94.44	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HI hi774c	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$82.26	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$3.7K	$3.4K	+$81.64	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
FL FlamePyroCTR	UTEPavg 21.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$131.4	56% 490-389 (879)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Hawai'iavg 78.1¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$46.36	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Hawai'i leg	Hawai'iavg 78.1¢	$960.52	$977.88	+$17.36
└ UTEP leg	UTEPavg 19.5¢	$565.5	$594.5	+$29
SE sentrio	Hawai'iavg 75.8¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$22.97	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
RN1	Hawai'iavg 76¢	$527.92	$560.76	+$32.84	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FL Flaznorp	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$442.38	$469.65	+$15.15	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawai'iavg 74¢	$444	$432	-$12	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
OJ ojg	Hawai'iavg 79.3¢	$374.64	$383.11	+$8.47	43% 838-1096 (1934)
VE VenusianCTR	UTEPavg 26.6¢	$87.34	$273.77	+$32.48	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
betdgeCTR	UTEPavg 20.2¢	$231.68	$200.51	-$31.17	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Hawai'iavg 79¢	$167.85	$168.91	+$1.06	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
NM NM-PCTR	UTEPavg 26¢	$130	$162.5	+$32.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
PA Pan9X	Hawai'iavg 78¢	$160.89	$144.32	+$3.3	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
GC GC-PCTR	UTEPavg 28¢	$140	$142.5	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
PainfulvoidCTR	UTEPavg 18.5¢	$115.37	$102.9	-$12.47	54% 1878-1618 (3496)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	UTEPavg 26¢	$59.07	$73.84	+$14.77	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	UTEPavg 10.1¢	$25.78	$51.07	+$25.28	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$25.74	$26.27	+$0.53	55% 790-658 (1448)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	UTEPavg 26.6¢	$22.78	$24.66	-$2.43	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VeryLucky888	Hawai'iavg 73.5¢	$4.5K	$3.86	+$33.31	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	UTEPavg 27¢	$1.92	$2.31	+$0.39	50% 21821-22062 (43883)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Hawai'i

Invested

$9,162.42

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$57.99

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Hawai'i

Invested

$6,756.45

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$46.28

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

ferrariChampions2026

Hawai'i

Invested

$6,753.44

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$94.44

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

hi774c

Hawai'i

Invested

$4,003.2

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$82.26

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

HomeRunHazard

Hawai'i

Invested

$3,660.1

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$81.64

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

FlamePyroCTR

UTEP

Invested

$2,831.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$131.4

Record

56%

490-389 (879)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$1,526.02

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$46.36

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Hawai'i$960.5278.1¢+$17.36

UTEP$565.519.5¢+$29

sentrio

Hawai'i

Invested

$1,296.65

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$22.97

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

RN1

Hawai'i

Invested

$527.92

Value

$560.76

PnL

+$32.84

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Flaznorp

Hawai'i

Invested

$442.38

Value

$469.65

PnL

+$15.15

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawai'i

Invested

$444

Value

$432

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

ojg

Hawai'i

Invested

$374.64

Value

$383.11

PnL

+$8.47

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

VenusianCTR

UTEP

Invested

$87.34

Value

$273.77

PnL

+$32.48

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

betdgeCTR

UTEP

Invested

$231.68

Value

$200.51

PnL

-$31.17

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Hawai'i

Invested

$167.85

Value

$168.91

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

NM-PCTR

UTEP

Invested

$130

Value

$162.5

PnL

+$32.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Pan9X

Hawai'i

Invested

$160.89

Value

$144.32

PnL

+$3.3

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

GC-PCTR

UTEP

Invested

$140

Value

$142.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

PainfulvoidCTR

UTEP

Invested

$115.37

Value

$102.9

PnL

-$12.47

Record

54%

1878-1618 (3496)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$59.07

Value

$73.84

PnL

+$14.77

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$25.78

Value

$51.07

PnL

+$25.28

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

pltrkr111<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$25.74

Value

$26.27

PnL

+$0.53

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$22.78

Value

$24.66

PnL

-$2.43

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VeryLucky888

Hawai'i

Invested

$4,504.2

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$33.31

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.31

PnL

+$0.39

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

14 of 26 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHawai'i 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawai'i wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.