Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Middle Tennessee, while the market favors Western Kentucky (56%). 24 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Western Kentucky vs. Middle Tennessee

24 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Middle Tennessee (89%) · Middle Tennessee at 44¢ · $119K held · ends Nov 7

Western Kentucky56¢Middle Tennessee44¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

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Research candidate

Middle Tennessee

Consensus Traders

Middle Tennessee 89%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$118.7K

Combined PnL

$599.24

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 43.5¢

-1% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

Research candidateMiddle Tennessee at 44%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Middle Tennessee

24 of 27 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Western Kentucky 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Kentucky56%

Middle Tennessee44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Middle Tennessee24 traders

Total Value$115.1K

Total Shares267,456

Combined PnL+$551.95

Western Kentucky3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,562

Combined PnL+$47.3

Middle Tennessee — 89%Western Kentucky — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Middle Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpMiddle Tennessee 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiddle Tennessee 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 92% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$32.0K	$31.3K	-$293.03	48% 405-446 (851)
nigiri99CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.2¢	$19.8K	$19.6K	+$914.62	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
HI hi774cCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.5¢	$13.3K	$13.1K	+$307.21	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.1¢	$13.3K	$13.0K	-$324.12	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.6¢	$7.4K	$7.2K	-$62.25	51% 5012-4882 (9894)
VeryLucky888CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.5¢	$7.4K	$5.6K	-$128.57	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
PR primmCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$5.0K	$4.9K	-$56.81	47% 1316-1503 (2819)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.5¢	$4.7K	$4.6K	+$109.18	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.9¢	$3.1K	$3.1K	-$48.25	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
LI LimousinCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42¢	$6.9K	$3.0K	+$103.45	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$25	57% 4276-3206 (7482)
38 38791873984189CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.3¢	$3.6K	$1.5K	+$62.1	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$34.71	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Middle Tennessee leg	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$886.05	$866.05	-$20
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 56.9¢	$601.37	$602.51	-$14.71
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Western Kentuckyavg 53.7¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$61.86	47% 533-610 (1143)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.6¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$30.78	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 45¢	$1,000	$955.55	-$11.11	55% 790-658 (1448)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.7¢	$917.57	$902.14	+$31.47	54% 540-457 (997)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 45.1¢	$888.77	$846.45	-$42.32	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
SE sentrioCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 42.5¢	$676.27	$683.55	+$31.13	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
Haradwaith	Western Kentuckyavg 57¢	$1.0K	$555.06	-$15	40% 6648-10054 (16702)
OD OddstormCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 43.8¢	$509.21	$500.09	+$15.3	48% 7449-7982 (15431)
GC GC-PCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$430	$435	+$5	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
VE VenusianCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44¢	$272.7	$276.07	+$3.37	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Middle Tennesseeavg 44.7¢	$271.52	$260.96	-$10.55	48% 1775-1911 (3686)
RL RLWGARB<$100	Middle Tennesseeavg 42¢	$88.2	$83.7	+$1.84	50% 8436-8484 (16920)
└ Middle Tennessee leg	Middle Tennesseeavg 42¢	$56.7	$58.05	+$1.39
└ Western Kentucky leg	Western Kentuckyavg 56¢	$25.2	$25.65	+$0.45

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$31,988.24

Value

$31.3K

PnL

-$293.03

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

nigiri99CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$19,753.07

Value

$19.6K

PnL

+$914.62

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

hi774cCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$13,254.1

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$307.21

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$13,274.39

Value

$13.0K

PnL

-$324.12

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

6512395314597884CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$7,427.12

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$62.25

Record

51%

5012-4882 (9894)

VeryLucky888CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$7,412.69

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$128.57

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

primmCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$4,999.98

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$56.81

Record

47%

1316-1503 (2819)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$4,688.77

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$109.18

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

LightParadoxCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$3,145.01

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$48.25

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

LimousinCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$6,896.02

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$103.45

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

Bagwell306CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$2,200

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$25

Record

57%

4276-3206 (7482)

38791873984189CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$3,606.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$62.1

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PARB<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,487.42

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$34.71

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Middle Tennessee$886.0544¢-$20

Western Kentucky$601.3756.9¢-$14.71

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Western Kentucky

Invested

$1,329.95

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$61.86

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

FlaznorpCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,223.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$30.78

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

pltrkr111CTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$1,000

Value

$955.55

PnL

-$11.11

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$917.57

Value

$902.14

PnL

+$31.47

Record

54%

540-457 (997)

SnakeBallCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$888.77

Value

$846.45

PnL

-$42.32

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

sentrioCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$676.27

Value

$683.55

PnL

+$31.13

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Haradwaith

Western Kentucky

Invested

$1,000.1

Value

$555.06

PnL

-$15

Record

40%

6648-10054 (16702)

OddstormCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$509.21

Value

$500.09

PnL

+$15.3

Record

48%

7449-7982 (15431)

GC-PCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

VenusianCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$272.7

Value

$276.07

PnL

+$3.37

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

MadridTimeCTR

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$271.52

Value

$260.96

PnL

-$10.55

Record

48%

1775-1911 (3686)

RLWGARB<$100

Middle Tennessee

Invested

$88.2

Value

$83.7

PnL

+$1.84

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Both legs:

Middle Tennessee$56.742¢+$1.39

Western Kentucky$25.256¢+$0.45

Research grade

Research candidateMiddle Tennessee at 44%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Middle Tennessee

24 of 27 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Western Kentucky 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Mature

41h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Middle Tennessee. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMiddle Tennessee 100% · 7

Aligned

sharpMiddle Tennessee 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMiddle Tennessee 86% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedMiddle Tennessee 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Middle Tennessee 92% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Middle Tennessee wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.