Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-11-05?

17 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold No (81%) · No at 62¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 5

Yes39¢No61¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 81%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

$173.53

Smart Money Entry

60.3¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No17 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares12,169

Combined PnL+$176.52

Yes4 traders

Total Value$109.82

Total Shares261

Combined PnL-$2.99

No — 81%Yes — 19%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 59.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$37.55	64% 9921-5525 (15446)
GC GC-P	Noavg 59.8¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$55.05	64% 9962-5593 (15555)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60.5¢	$898.04	$912.38	+$14.34	51% 25716-24429 (50145)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 60.6¢	$828.06	$857.02	+$28.96	50% 28410-28315 (56725)
VE Venusian	Noavg 61.4¢	$558.35	$550.07	-$8.28	51% 1371-1334 (2705)
CA Cannae	Noavg 60.2¢	$507.2	$518.57	+$11.37	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 60¢	$459.43	$467.09	+$11.49	49% 14704-15378 (30082)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 60¢	$452.86	$460.4	+$3.77	51% 37659-36887 (74546)
SE sentrio	Noavg 60.4¢	$276.05	$280.91	+$4.86	50% 25811-25501 (51312)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 59¢	$247.33	$255.71	+$10.48	49% 285-302 (587)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 62¢	$248	$252	+$4	51% 1898-1850 (3748)
LI Limousin	Noavg 60.8¢	$210.24	$210.76	+$0.52	53% 1413-1258 (2671)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Noavg 61¢	$186.02	$189.69	+$6.67	56% 7908-6321 (14229)
└ No leg	Noavg 61¢	$112.02	$115.69	+$3.67
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37¢	$74	$74	+$3
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 62.2¢	$98.59	$96.7	-$1.89	52% 1365-1285 (2650)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 41.2¢	$51.09	$45.88	-$1.86	49% 6287-6447 (12734)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 61¢	$41.98	$43.36	+$0.35	51% 6338-6127 (12465)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 38¢	$28.54	$28.86	+$0.32	55% 9735-8124 (17859)
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100	Yesavg 38.9¢	$26.53	$25.22	-$1.31	64% 1958-1090 (3048)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 59.9¢	$177.41	$23.5	+$3.88	48% 61036-65868 (126904)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$48.44	$20.27	+$0.19	58% 46667-33629 (80296)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 61¢	$15.56	$15.56	-$0.13	53% 2570-2251 (4821)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$10.31	$9.87	-$0.13	44% 80-103 (183)

NM-P

Invested

$1,443.72

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$37.55

Record

64%

9921-5525 (15446)

GC-P

Invested

$1,241.61

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$55.05

Record

64%

9962-5593 (15555)

Flaznorp

Invested

$898.04

Value

$912.38

PnL

+$14.34

Record

51%

25716-24429 (50145)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$828.06

Value

$857.02

PnL

+$28.96

Record

50%

28410-28315 (56725)

Venusian

Invested

$558.35

Value

$550.07

PnL

-$8.28

Record

51%

1371-1334 (2705)

Cannae

Invested

$507.2

Value

$518.57

PnL

+$11.37

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$459.43

Value

$467.09

PnL

+$11.49

Record

49%

14704-15378 (30082)

SnakeBall

Invested

$452.86

Value

$460.4

PnL

+$3.77

Record

51%

37659-36887 (74546)

sentrio

Invested

$276.05

Value

$280.91

PnL

+$4.86

Record

50%

25811-25501 (51312)

Kyn008

Invested

$247.33

Value

$255.71

PnL

+$10.48

Record

49%

285-302 (587)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$248

Value

$252

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

1898-1850 (3748)

Limousin

Invested

$210.24

Value

$210.76

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

1413-1258 (2671)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$186.02

Value

$189.69

PnL

+$6.67

Record

56%

7908-6321 (14229)

Both legs:

No$112.0261¢+$3.67

Yes$7437¢+$3

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$98.59

Value

$96.7

PnL

-$1.89

Record

52%

1365-1285 (2650)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.09

Value

$45.88

PnL

-$1.86

Record

49%

6287-6447 (12734)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$41.98

Value

$43.36

PnL

+$0.35

Record

51%

6338-6127 (12465)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.54

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$0.32

Record

55%

9735-8124 (17859)

darkumbreon88CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$26.53

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$1.31

Record

64%

1958-1090 (3048)

38791873984189

Invested

$177.41

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$3.88

Record

48%

61036-65868 (126904)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$48.44

Value

$20.27

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

46667-33629 (80296)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$15.56

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

2570-2251 (4821)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.31

Value

$9.87

PnL

-$0.13

Record

44%

80-103 (183)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

17 of 21 top traders (81%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 37%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

85% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 37% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.