Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner

24 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold Vitality (63%) · Vitality at 97¢ · $58K held · ends Nov 12

FURIA3¢Vitality97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vitality

Consensus Traders

Vitality 63%

Total Value

$58.4K

Combined PnL

$-12.1K

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 97.4¢

+51% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

24 of 38 top traders (63%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

FURIA3%

Vitality97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vitality24 traders

Total Value$53.4K

Total Shares68,635

Combined PnL+$6.3K

FURIA14 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares59,966

Combined PnL$-18.5K

Vitality — 63%FURIA — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SuperMegaMan	Vitalityavg 61¢	$4.8K	$7.7K	+$2.9K	49% 607-628 (1235)
BR Brz4629	Vitalityavg 66.5¢	$4.6K	$6.8K	+$2.2K	— 13-3 (16)
forsenxd	Vitalityavg 56.5¢	$6.1K	$6.4K	+$217.42	48% 357-381 (738)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Vitalityavg 60¢	$6.3K	$6.2K	-$158.28	2% 6-291 (297)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Vitalityavg 78¢	$14.9K	$4.2K	-$479	62% 81-50 (131)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Vitalityavg 83.6¢	$3.8K	$3.1K	-$700.08	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
Up0nly	Vitalityavg 90¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$212.94	— 7-2 (9)
VeryLucky888	Vitalityavg 59.3¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$30	52% 597-541 (1138)
BL black-rabbit	Vitalityavg 56¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$436.5	6% 4-67 (71)
Vladooos	Vitalityavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$15	61% 20-13 (33)
RE reykreykCTR	FURIAavg 39.1¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$14.45	— 2-12 (14)
FR frohp5	Vitalityavg 72.2¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$395.46	60% 1231-815 (2046)
WH white-rabbit	Vitalityavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$63.6	5% 4-70 (74)
BI BillBenter2026	Vitalityavg 63.1¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$356.38	24% 157-504 (661)
SU suleng66	Vitalityavg 74¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$315.54	6% 3-51 (54)
SP SportsTrading123CTR	FURIAavg 38¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$16.7	— 4-2 (6)
RR rrooster	Vitalityavg 59¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$26.12	40% 23-35 (58)
31 319113331313111	Vitalityavg 84¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$6	58% 98-72 (170)
10 10scat	Vitalityavg 73¢	$666.6	$888.95	+$222.35	4% 23-525 (548)
FA fantasy7788CTR	FURIAavg 41.9¢	$15.0K	$769.38	$-14.2K	42% 105-145 (250)
SU suntori	Vitalityavg 70.2¢	$949.87	$718.07	+$147.81	47% 1320-1474 (2794)
lma0o0o0oCTR	FURIAavg 41¢	$614.99	$622.49	+$7.5	53% 20-18 (38)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Vitalityavg 71¢	$1.9K	$288.32	+$138.63	46% 72-85 (157)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG	Vitalityavg 73¢	$160	$213.37	+$53.37	25% 137-419 (556)
NO NotJump	Vitalityavg 57.1¢	$696.41	$169.09	+$18.79	55% 367-301 (668)

SuperMegaMan

Vitality

Invested

$4,793.79

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

49%

607-628 (1235)

Brz4629

Vitality

Invested

$4,624.64

Value

$6.8K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

—

13-3 (16)

forsenxd

Vitality

Invested

$6,142.34

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$217.42

Record

48%

357-381 (738)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Vitality

Invested

$6,331.12

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$158.28

Record

6-291 (297)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Vitality

Invested

$14,892.78

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$479

Record

62%

81-50 (131)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Vitality

Invested

$3,766.29

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$700.08

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

Up0nly

Vitality

Invested

$2,441.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$212.94

Record

—

7-2 (9)

VeryLucky888

Vitality

Invested

$2,370

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$30

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

black-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$1,708

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$436.5

Record

4-67 (71)

Vladooos

Vitality

Invested

$1,800

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$15

Record

61%

20-13 (33)

reykreykCTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,530

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$14.45

Record

—

2-12 (14)

frohp5

Vitality

Invested

$1,111

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$395.46

Record

60%

1231-815 (2046)

white-rabbit

Vitality

Invested

$1,424.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$63.6

Record

4-70 (74)

BillBenter2026

Vitality

Invested

$1,000.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$356.38

Record

24%

157-504 (661)

suleng66

Vitality

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$315.54

Record

3-51 (54)

SportsTrading123CTR

FURIA

Invested

$1,269.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$16.7

Record

—

4-2 (6)

rrooster

Vitality

Invested

$1,027.26

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$26.12

Record

40%

23-35 (58)

319113331313111

Vitality

Invested

$1,008

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6

Record

58%

98-72 (170)

10scat

Vitality

Invested

$666.6

Value

$888.95

PnL

+$222.35

Record

23-525 (548)

fantasy7788CTR

FURIA

Invested

$15,000

Value

$769.38

PnL

$-14.2K

Record

42%

105-145 (250)

suntori

Vitality

Invested

$949.87

Value

$718.07

PnL

+$147.81

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

lma0o0o0oCTR

FURIA

Invested

$614.99

Value

$622.49

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

20-18 (38)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Vitality

Invested

$1,946.12

Value

$288.32

PnL

+$138.63

Record

46%

72-85 (157)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG

Vitality

Invested

$160

Value

$213.37

PnL

+$53.37

Record

25%

137-419 (556)

NotJump

Vitality

Invested

$696.41

Value

$169.09

PnL

+$18.79

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Research grade

NeutralVitality at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Vitality

24 of 38 top traders (63%)14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vitality wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.