Counter-Strike: SAW Youngsters vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C

17 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (77%) · MASONIC at 100¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 8

SAW Youngsters<1¢MASONIC>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MASONIC

Consensus Traders

MASONIC 77%

Total Value

$28.6K

Combined PnL

-$188.56

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

SAW Youngsters0%

MASONIC100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MASONIC17 traders

Total Value$28.6K

Total Shares28,651

Combined PnL+$2.0K

SAW Youngsters5 traders

Total Value$8.17

Total Shares6,345

Combined PnL$-2.2K

MASONIC — 77%SAW Youngsters — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on MASONIC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMASONIC 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpMASONIC 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrMASONIC 72% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedMASONIC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000MASONIC 68% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	MASONICavg 99.9¢	$16.0K	$16.0K	+$8	97% 527-19 (546)
BI BillBenter2026	MASONICavg 52.3¢	$3.2K	$4.0K	+$822.21	57% 20229-15050 (35279)
0X 0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250	MASONICavg 97.3¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$104.42	97% 4252-154 (4406)
GT gt7238	MASONICavg 73.4¢	$959.36	$958.99	-$0.37	44% 691-866 (1557)
CI cigarettes	MASONICavg 55.8¢	$533.05	$955.44	+$422.39	50% 65477-65792 (131269)
FE ferrariChampions2026	MASONICavg 52.8¢	$839.14	$894.77	+$55.63	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
31 319113331313111	MASONICavg 45.7¢	$219.34	$479.76	+$260.42	58% 473-341 (814)
GA Gaditima	MASONICavg 42.8¢	$194.07	$449.78	+$255.71	47% 8628-9767 (18395)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554	MASONICavg 69¢	$400	$434.67	+$34.67	54% 3880-3246 (7126)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	MASONICavg 92.7¢	$322.37	$347.65	+$25.29	56% 39453-31101 (70554)
38 38791873984189	MASONICavg 53.2¢	$208.95	$183.01	-$4.38	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
VeryLucky888<$100	MASONICavg 43¢	$69.65	$81.95	+$12.3	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
Future-Tarot-Trader<$100	MASONICavg 68¢	$47.99	$70.53	+$22.55	64% 1330-750 (2080)
PA pauleta23<$100	MASONICavg 67.6¢	$60.07	$61.1	+$1.03	65% 25411-13605 (39016)
LO lonmi2511<$100	MASONICavg 37¢	$12.14	$14.99	+$2.85	52% 1527-1404 (2931)
FL Flaznorp<$100	MASONICavg 60.2¢	$9.02	$14.59	+$5.57	51% 47136-44473 (91609)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 48.3¢	$5.24	$5.01	-$0.23	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
SE sentrio<$100	MASONICavg 38¢	$1.9	$4.99	+$3.09	50% 27934-27381 (55315)
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 30.6¢	$1.3K	$2.08	$-1.3K	55% 119-99 (218)
PA panpidaras1CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 43.6¢	$924.14	$1.06	-$923.08	46% 296-354 (650)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 73¢	$16.06	$0.01	-$16.05	48% 39771-42686 (82457)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 52¢	$17.75	$0.01	-$9.22	50% 23449-23463 (46912)

Vps1

MASONIC

Invested

$15,984

Value

$16.0K

PnL

+$8

Record

97%

527-19 (546)

BillBenter2026

MASONIC

Invested

$3,162.57

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$822.21

Record

57%

20229-15050 (35279)

0xD487f513cfeAD22d76B6db4567c756b3Cf250

MASONIC

Invested

$3,610.24

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$104.42

Record

97%

4252-154 (4406)

gt7238

MASONIC

Invested

$959.36

Value

$958.99

PnL

-$0.37

Record

44%

691-866 (1557)

cigarettes

MASONIC

Invested

$533.05

Value

$955.44

PnL

+$422.39

Record

50%

65477-65792 (131269)

ferrariChampions2026

MASONIC

Invested

$839.14

Value

$894.77

PnL

+$55.63

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

319113331313111

MASONIC

Invested

$219.34

Value

$479.76

PnL

+$260.42

Record

58%

473-341 (814)

Gaditima

MASONIC

Invested

$194.07

Value

$449.78

PnL

+$255.71

Record

47%

8628-9767 (18395)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554

MASONIC

Invested

$400

Value

$434.67

PnL

+$34.67

Record

54%

3880-3246 (7126)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

MASONIC

Invested

$322.37

Value

$347.65

PnL

+$25.29

Record

56%

39453-31101 (70554)

38791873984189

MASONIC

Invested

$208.95

Value

$183.01

PnL

-$4.38

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

VeryLucky888<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$69.65

Value

$81.95

PnL

+$12.3

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Future-Tarot-Trader<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$47.99

Value

$70.53

PnL

+$22.55

Record

64%

1330-750 (2080)

pauleta23<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$60.07

Value

$61.1

PnL

+$1.03

Record

65%

25411-13605 (39016)

lonmi2511<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$12.14

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$2.85

Record

52%

1527-1404 (2931)

Flaznorp<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$9.02

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$5.57

Record

51%

47136-44473 (91609)

Pan9XCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$5.24

Value

$5.01

PnL

-$0.23

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

sentrio<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$1.9

Value

$4.99

PnL

+$3.09

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$1,273.42

Value

$2.08

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

55%

119-99 (218)

panpidaras1CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$924.14

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$923.08

Record

46%

296-354 (650)

lryyyCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$16.06

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$16.05

Record

48%

39771-42686 (82457)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$17.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.22

Record

50%

23449-23463 (46912)

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

17 of 22 top traders (77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on MASONIC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMASONIC 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpMASONIC 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrMASONIC 72% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedMASONIC 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000MASONIC 68% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MASONIC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.