Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 24 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-08?

24 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 41¢ · $295K held · ended Nov 8

Yes60¢No40¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$294.7K

Combined PnL

$8.7K

Smart Money Entry

37.4¢ → 40.5¢

+8% since entry · 24 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 38 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes60%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$128.7K

Total Shares201,098

Combined PnL+$481.83

No24 traders

Total Value$142.9K

Total Shares342,998

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Yes — 37%No — 63%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 61¢	$66.6K	$68.2K	+$1.6K	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 36.1¢	$36.2K	$39.6K	+$3.4K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 39¢	$38.0K	$39.4K	+$1.5K	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$25.4K	$27.9K	+$2.5K	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
CH ch27er	Yesavg 64.7¢	$19.3K	$19.0K	-$345.16	56% 31-24 (55)
ND ndb1CTR	Noavg 37¢	$17.6K	$17.9K	+$238.1	64% 1081-614 (1695)
AN Anon455	Yesavg 64.5¢	$15.0K	$14.6K	-$430.25	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
BI big8betz	Yesavg 65.2¢	$10.2K	$9.9K	-$258.13	49% 47-49 (96)
CORGII	Yesavg 64.2¢	$9.6K	$9.4K	-$249.83	41% 418-597 (1015)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 63.8¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$32.02	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.8¢	$4.9K	$4.5K	-$328.86
└ No leg	Noavg 36.3¢	$3.1K	$3.4K	+$360.88
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 62.5¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$213.86	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ No leg	Noavg 35.6¢	$2.7K	$3.0K	+$362.56
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 62.5¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$148.7
nigiri99	Yesavg 63¢	$5.0K	$5.2K	+$198.43	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
SA SapporoAsahiCTR	Noavg 37¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$37.97	35% 95-177 (272)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$134.24	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 36.8¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$18.06	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Noavg 36¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$170.18	48% 405-446 (851)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.92	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.72
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$27.64
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 37.5¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	+$26.87	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ No leg	Noavg 37.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$27.62
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 37.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$155.55	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
WA WarriorHARB<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$17.72	16% 1392-7374 (8766)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$8.86
└ No leg	Noavg 38¢	$673.36	$664.5	-$8.86
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 63.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$38.93	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 63.6¢	$869.1	$813.05	-$56.05
└ No leg	Noavg 39¢	$433.74	$450.86	+$17.13
DV dv-pmCTR	Noavg 40.2¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$46.38	48% 3364-3590 (6954)
Fuentes31	Yesavg 63¢	$1,000	$992.06	-$7.94	53% 687-608 (1295)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 35.8¢	$687.65	$761.89	+$74.24	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 64.6¢	$1.0K	$739.08	-$53.48	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$66,565.55

Value

$68.2K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$36,192.34

Value

$39.6K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$37,959.19

Value

$39.4K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$25,431.12

Value

$27.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

ch27er

Yes

Invested

$19,346.78

Value

$19.0K

PnL

-$345.16

Record

56%

31-24 (55)

ndb1CTR

Invested

$17,619.03

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$238.1

Record

64%

1081-614 (1695)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$15,026.23

Value

$14.6K

PnL

-$430.25

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

big8betz

Yes

Invested

$10,180

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$258.13

Record

49%

47-49 (96)

CORGII

Yes

Invested

$9,624.83

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$249.83

Record

41%

418-597 (1015)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$7,943.93

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$32.02

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Yes$4,861.0163.8¢-$328.86

No$3,082.9336.3¢+$360.88

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$5,788.88

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$213.86

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

No$2,656.8935.6¢+$362.56

Yes$3,13262.5¢-$148.7

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$5,000.31

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$198.43

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

SapporoAsahiCTR

Invested

$2,809.72

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$37.97

Record

35%

95-177 (272)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$2,604.24

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$134.24

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$2,907.01

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$18.06

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Invested

$2,450.64

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$170.18

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,568.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.92

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

No$1,444.4437.5¢-$0.72

Yes$1,124.1161¢+$27.64

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,567.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$26.87

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

No$1,444.4537.5¢-$0.75

Yes$1,123.161¢+$27.62

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$2,371.19

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$155.55

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

WarriorHARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,789.72

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$17.72

Record

16%

1392-7374 (8766)

Both legs:

Yes$1,116.3663¢-$8.86

No$673.3638¢-$8.86

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,302.84

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$38.93

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

Both legs:

Yes$869.163.6¢-$56.05

No$433.7439¢+$17.13

dv-pmCTR

Invested

$1,242.66

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$46.38

Record

48%

3364-3590 (6954)

Fuentes31

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$992.06

PnL

-$7.94

Record

53%

687-608 (1295)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$687.65

Value

$761.89

PnL

+$74.24

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$1,013.75

Value

$739.08

PnL

-$53.48

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 41%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

24 of 38 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.