Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Under (72%) · Under at 55¢ · $116K held · ended Nov 7

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$116.1K

Combined PnL

$8.7K

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 55¢

+18% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under18 traders

Total Value$74.3K

Total Shares132,753

Combined PnL+$11.9K

Over7 traders

Total Value$28.3K

Total Shares62,622

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Under — 72%Over — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 72% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Underavg 51¢	$31.2K	$34.3K	+$3.1K	64% 1055-598 (1653)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Overavg 50.2¢	$28.1K	$25.1K	$-2.9K	47% 533-610 (1143)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Underavg 52.3¢	$19.8K	$11.7K	+$475.63	42% 8168-11360 (19528)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 10.8¢	$1.7K	$8.7K	+$7.0K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Underavg 51.3¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$295.81	49% 1843-1935 (3778)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$269.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$26.37
LI LightParadox	Underavg 51.2¢	$3.9K	$4.3K	+$363.64	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$210.13	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$291.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$81.65
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.2¢	$7.0K	$3.7K	+$240.35	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.2¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$389.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.1K	$950.56	-$148.88
nigiri99	Underavg 53.2¢	$3.5K	$3.7K	+$181.52	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
DA DaBossHogg	Underavg 52.2¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$183.85	52% 234-218 (452)
RN1	Underavg 55.3¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$30.94	53% 62321-54560 (116881)
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$2.7K	$1.6K	+$230.56	50% 1850-1863 (3713)
73 739633786	Underavg 52.2¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$97.59	44% 413-535 (948)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$77.58	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
LooksMaxing101	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$99.05	51% 887-849 (1736)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.3¢	$4.1K	$1.0K	+$144.39	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$86.52	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1,000	$918.36	-$81.63	55% 790-658 (1448)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 54.3¢	$520.1	$536.37	+$16.27	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 51¢	$306	$336	+$30	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
0xheavy888	Underavg 50.2¢	$89.32	$104.13	+$14.81	56% 8223-6528 (14751)
MR MrBently<$100	Underavg 52¢	$58.48	$62.98	+$4.5	52% 614-558 (1172)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$35.84	$37.69	+$1.85	59% 6849-4851 (11700)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 50.2¢	$28.14	$25.2	-$2.94	47% 11022-12642 (23664)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.94	$3.36	+$0.42	54% 10453-8773 (19226)

ndb1

Under

Invested

$31,224.24

Value

$34.3K

PnL

+$3.1K

Record

64%

1055-598 (1653)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Over

Invested

$28,071.23

Value

$25.1K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

47%

533-610 (1143)

ferrariChampions2026

Under

Invested

$19,822.88

Value

$11.7K

PnL

+$475.63

Record

42%

8168-11360 (19528)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$1,699.92

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$7.0K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

VenusianARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,543.18

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$295.81

Record

49%

1843-1935 (3778)

Both legs:

Under$2,907.1851.3¢+$269.45

Over$2,530.0448¢+$26.37

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$3,923.53

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$363.64

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,842.94

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$210.13

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Under$2,536.4950.2¢+$291.78

Over$1,306.4548¢-$81.65

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,992.76

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$240.35

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Both legs:

Under$2,361.4750.2¢+$389.23

Over$1,099.4448¢-$148.88

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$3,512.24

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$181.52

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

DaBossHogg

Under

Invested

$2,561.25

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$183.85

Record

52%

234-218 (452)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,522.55

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$30.94

Record

53%

62321-54560 (116881)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$2,712.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$230.56

Record

50%

1850-1863 (3713)

739633786

Under

Invested

$1,359.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$97.59

Record

44%

413-535 (948)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$1,240.7

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$77.58

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

LooksMaxing101

Under

Invested

$1,010.33

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$99.05

Record

51%

887-849 (1736)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$4,093.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$144.39

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$1,099.24

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$86.52

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$918.36

PnL

-$81.63

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$520.1

Value

$536.37

PnL

+$16.27

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$306

Value

$336

PnL

+$30

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$89.32

Value

$104.13

PnL

+$14.81

Record

56%

8223-6528 (14751)

MrBently<$100

Under

Invested

$58.48

Value

$62.98

PnL

+$4.5

Record

52%

614-558 (1172)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Under

Invested

$35.84

Value

$37.69

PnL

+$1.85

Record

59%

6849-4851 (11700)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.14

Value

$25.2

PnL

-$2.94

Record

47%

11022-12642 (23664)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$2.94

Value

$3.36

PnL

+$0.42

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+38 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 83% · 6

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 72% · 18

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.2%

55.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$74.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

174.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.