Will AZ win on 2026-11-08?

13 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 97¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 8

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$24.0K

Combined PnL

$-2.4K

Smart Money Entry

72.7¢ → 96.6¢

+33% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes13 traders

Total Value$14.7K

Total Shares15,757

Combined PnL$-1.7K

No10 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares17,566

Combined PnL-$675.88

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 37.1¢	$2.4K	$4.9K	+$2.5K	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Noavg 35¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$829.11	48% 214-236 (450)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 57.7¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	-$897.53	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 100¢	$6.1K	$3.4K	$-2.6K	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 100¢	$3.0K	$2.0K	$-1.0K	50% 32540-32687 (65227)
PA Paul973973	Yesavg 95¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$27.37	89% 1104-142 (1246)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 65.5¢	$1.1K	$831.24	-$236.02	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LU LuckyLoo	Yesavg 97¢	$668.52	$673	+$4.48	46% 30563-35669 (66232)
38 38791873984189CTR	Noavg 65.5¢	$2.4K	$603.33	+$106.08	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 64.8¢	$882.93	$487.24	-$57.68	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 64.9¢	$727.02	$410.77	-$61.18	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
GA GaditimaCTR	Noavg 77.9¢	$464.18	$369.95	-$94.23	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 57.3¢	$1.1K	$363.41	+$94.85	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 92.3¢	$435.58	$286.45	-$149.12	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 100¢	$345.66	$202.4	-$143.26	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 63.7¢	$261.87	$165.04	-$96.83	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
0xheavy888	Yesavg 65¢	$130	$113	-$17	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35.5¢	$81.61	$78.33	-$0.52	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
CI cigarettes<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$45	$50	+$5	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
dips.CTR	Noavg 48¢	$404.58	$26.84	-$377.74	46% 12026-13917 (25943)
SL SlickRick123CTR	Noavg 60¢	$155.81	$17.19	-$138.62	47% 6203-6908 (13111)
KY Kyn008CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$13.06	$16.71	+$3.65	48% 313-335 (648)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$10	$0.75	-$9.25	65% 25410-13589 (38999)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$2,406.23

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Invested

$3,413.75

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$829.11

Record

48%

214-236 (450)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$4,615.61

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$897.53

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$6,077

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$3,010.43

Value

$2.0K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

32540-32687 (65227)

Paul973973

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$27.37

Record

89%

1104-142 (1246)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$1,067.26

Value

$831.24

PnL

-$236.02

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

LuckyLoo

Yes

Invested

$668.52

Value

$673

PnL

+$4.48

Record

46%

30563-35669 (66232)

38791873984189CTR

Invested

$2,378.53

Value

$603.33

PnL

+$106.08

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$882.93

Value

$487.24

PnL

-$57.68

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$727.02

Value

$410.77

PnL

-$61.18

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

GaditimaCTR

Invested

$464.18

Value

$369.95

PnL

-$94.23

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$1,084.17

Value

$363.41

PnL

+$94.85

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$435.58

Value

$286.45

PnL

-$149.12

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$345.66

Value

$202.4

PnL

-$143.26

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$261.87

Value

$165.04

PnL

-$96.83

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

0xheavy888

Yes

Invested

$130

Value

$113

PnL

-$17

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$81.61

Value

$78.33

PnL

-$0.52

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

cigarettes<$100

Yes

Invested

$45

Value

$50

PnL

+$5

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

dips.CTR

Invested

$404.58

Value

$26.84

PnL

-$377.74

Record

46%

12026-13917 (25943)

SlickRick123CTR

Invested

$155.81

Value

$17.19

PnL

-$138.62

Record

47%

6203-6908 (13111)

Kyn008CTR<$100

Invested

$13.06

Value

$16.71

PnL

+$3.65

Record

48%

313-335 (648)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

13 of 23 top traders (57%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.