Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on November 2?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$910.25

Smart Money Entry

32.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,029

Combined PnL+$893.28

No6 traders

Total Value$292.92

Total Shares425

Combined PnL+$16.96

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$313.51	$1.2K	+$894.28	47% 750-838 (1588)
fildoroCTR	Yesavg 27¢	$79.78	$259.81	+$5.81	63% 1692-993 (2685)
Istaroth	Noavg 70.2¢	$161.84	$153.95	-$4.71	17% 402-1971 (2373)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Yesavg 81.8¢	$115.72	$129.23	+$13.51	37% 685-1150 (1835)
PO Poligarch	Noavg 63.9¢	$63.45	$119.29	+$55.83	54% 7712-6458 (14170)
24 241532532432CTR	Yesavg 36.7¢	$72.38	$110.43	+$38.06	60% 2354-1539 (3893)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yesavg 86.7¢	$15.14	$15.71	+$0.57	36% 635-1125 (1760)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Yesavg 86.7¢	$21.18	$15.4	-$5.78	41% 942-1365 (2307)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100	Noavg 68.2¢	$3.62	$13.28	+$9.66	58% 1615-1157 (2772)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$6.49	$10.55	+$4.06	37% 758-1274 (2032)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$2.06	$7.57	+$1.68	55% 561-452 (1013)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 56.6¢	$16.41	$5.2	-$11.21	42% 1898-2620 (4518)
BI Bilberry<$100	Noavg 83¢	$34.38	$3.52	-$30.86	53% 3389-3008 (6397)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 62.3¢	$54.76	$1.86	-$9.42	57% 17245-12903 (30148)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 44.4¢	$4.56	$1.03	-$3.53	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 74.2¢	$39.89	$0.08	-$39.81	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.4	$0.02	-$0.38	56% 3736-2986 (6722)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$7.5	$0.01	-$7.5	28% 5956-15587 (21543)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$313.51

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$894.28

Record

47%

750-838 (1588)

fildoroCTR

Yes

Invested

$79.78

Value

$259.81

PnL

+$5.81

Record

63%

1692-993 (2685)

Istaroth

Invested

$161.84

Value

$153.95

PnL

-$4.71

Record

17%

402-1971 (2373)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Yes

Invested

$115.72

Value

$129.23

PnL

+$13.51

Record

37%

685-1150 (1835)

Poligarch

Invested

$63.45

Value

$119.29

PnL

+$55.83

Record

54%

7712-6458 (14170)

241532532432CTR

Yes

Invested

$72.38

Value

$110.43

PnL

+$38.06

Record

60%

2354-1539 (3893)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.14

Value

$15.71

PnL

+$0.57

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.18

Value

$15.4

PnL

-$5.78

Record

41%

942-1365 (2307)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$9.66

Record

58%

1615-1157 (2772)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.49

Value

$10.55

PnL

+$4.06

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.06

Value

$7.57

PnL

+$1.68

Record

55%

561-452 (1013)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.41

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$11.21

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

Bilberry<$100

Invested

$34.38

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$30.86

Record

53%

3389-3008 (6397)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$54.76

Value

$1.86

PnL

-$9.42

Record

57%

17245-12903 (30148)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

$1.03

PnL

-$3.53

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.89

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$39.81

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.38

Record

56%

3736-2986 (6722)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$7.5

Record

28%

5956-15587 (21543)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+25 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Mature

35h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (14 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8186.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

8286.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.