Will Ōita Trinita win on 2026-11-03?

3 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (15%) · No at 75¢ · $57K held · ended Nov 3

Yes25¢No75¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 15%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.6K

Combined PnL

$217.26

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 75¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 20 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$39.7K

Total Shares57,497

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Yes17 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares50,535

Combined PnL$-5.1K

No — 15%Yes — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 92% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 59.8¢	$34.1K	$39.4K	+$5.2K	50% 188-185 (373)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$8.4K	$6.5K	$-1.9K	55% 764-622 (1386)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$6.9K	$4.8K	$-2.1K	51% 23065-21883 (44948)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$5.0K	$1.6K	-$450	54% 58718-51015 (109733)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 40.8¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$210.25	50% 26997-26925 (53922)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.8¢	$1.2K	$926.66	-$218.48
└ No leg	Noavg 67.2¢	$298.78	$307.01	+$8.23
NO NotradecopyCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$500	$425	-$75	49% 3970-4180 (8150)
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$500	$425	-$75	51% 3976-3876 (7852)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$1.2K	$367.97	-$106.83	54% 766-651 (1417)
HRTradingCTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$425.47	$333.5	-$91.96	51% 7139-6898 (14037)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$377.74	$305.79	-$71.95	40% 1099-1667 (2766)
VE Venusian	Noavg 60.6¢	$246.06	$280.14	+$34.08	53% 748-666 (1414)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 42¢	$256.4	$207.4	-$49	58% 44275-32205 (76480)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Yesavg 42¢	$218.02	$202.01	-$16.01	50% 35350-34790 (70140)
DI dips.CTR	Yesavg 40¢	$493.95	$153.12	-$44.46	46% 7526-8753 (16279)
poshposhCTR	Yesavg 41¢	$141.2	$117.1	-$24.11	57% 11745-8826 (20571)
BA BayupatiCTR	Yesavg 40¢	$300.5	$93.16	-$27.05	50% 246-248 (494)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 40¢	$83.94	$69.39	-$14.55	51% 6194-5931 (12125)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$66.44	$59.7	-$6.74	50% 2617-2612 (5229)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 32.4¢	$31.42	$30.06	-$1.36	45% 13352-16261 (29613)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$23.61	$21.19	-$2.42	47% 10454-11641 (22095)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 69¢	$19.33	$19.33	-$0	48% 5999-6422 (12421)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$34,134.6

Value

$39.4K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

50%

188-185 (373)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$8,413.79

Value

$6.5K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

55%

764-622 (1386)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,887.27

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

51%

23065-21883 (44948)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,000

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$450

Record

54%

58718-51015 (109733)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,518.65

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$210.25

Record

50%

26997-26925 (53922)

Both legs:

Yes$1,219.8740.8¢-$218.48

No$298.7867.2¢+$8.23

NotradecopyCTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$425

PnL

-$75

Record

49%

3970-4180 (8150)

GamblingAddict12345CTR

Yes

Invested

$500

Value

$425

PnL

-$75

Record

51%

3976-3876 (7852)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,187

Value

$367.97

PnL

-$106.83

Record

54%

766-651 (1417)

HRTradingCTR

Yes

Invested

$425.47

Value

$333.5

PnL

-$91.96

Record

51%

7139-6898 (14037)

mouzsynapseCTR

Yes

Invested

$377.74

Value

$305.79

PnL

-$71.95

Record

40%

1099-1667 (2766)

Venusian

Invested

$246.06

Value

$280.14

PnL

+$34.08

Record

53%

748-666 (1414)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$256.4

Value

$207.4

PnL

-$49

Record

58%

44275-32205 (76480)

SnakeBallCTR

Yes

Invested

$218.02

Value

$202.01

PnL

-$16.01

Record

50%

35350-34790 (70140)

dips.CTR

Yes

Invested

$493.95

Value

$153.12

PnL

-$44.46

Record

46%

7526-8753 (16279)

poshposhCTR

Yes

Invested

$141.2

Value

$117.1

PnL

-$24.11

Record

57%

11745-8826 (20571)

BayupatiCTR

Yes

Invested

$300.5

Value

$93.16

PnL

-$27.05

Record

50%

246-248 (494)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.94

Value

$69.39

PnL

-$14.55

Record

51%

6194-5931 (12125)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.44

Value

$59.7

PnL

-$6.74

Record

50%

2617-2612 (5229)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.42

Value

$30.06

PnL

-$1.36

Record

45%

13352-16261 (29613)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.61

Value

$21.19

PnL

-$2.42

Record

47%

10454-11641 (22095)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$19.33

Value

$19.33

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

5999-6422 (12421)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 20 top traders (15%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Diverging

ctrYes 92% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 88% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.