Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31?

31 of 45 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 86¢ · $147K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 69%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$146.7K

Combined PnL

$2.5K

Smart Money Entry

84.4¢ → 85.5¢

+1% since entry · 31 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 45 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No31 traders

Total Value$130.0K

Total Shares151,587

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Yes14 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares97,591

Combined PnL+$1.5K

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 41

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Parz1vaI	Noavg 84.1¢	$44.9K	$45.3K	+$465.78	72% 1106-420 (1526)
0X 0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960	Noavg 85.6¢	$17.0K	$16.8K	-$112.17	63% 175-102 (277)
RO Ronaldo2100	Noavg 88¢	$9.8K	$9.4K	-$333.33	0% 0-29 (29)
Hannah-Montana	Noavg 85.5¢	$8.5K	$8.5K	-$50	— 0-10 (10)
BR bruhzilCTR	Yesavg 14.8¢	$6.0K	$6.5K	+$494.12	— 0-4 (4)
BE Bet1nthedark	Noavg 84.5¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$36	— 0-4 (4)
Tenebrus7	Noavg 85¢	$7.7K	$5.6K	-$3.59	0% 0-41 (41)
DR dromedaryyCTR	Yesavg 13.7¢	$3.9K	$4.5K	+$665.82	27% 41-112 (153)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 86.1¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$35.47	— 0-12 (12)
GD Gdub	Noavg 84.5¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$20.41	— 0-5 (5)
AL AlphaBetaGamma2357	Noavg 83¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$80	— 0-5 (5)
Lolakis	Noavg 85.2¢	$6.1K	$3.2K	-$5.17	0% 0-31 (31)
arjennnnn	Noavg 85¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	68% 516-238 (754)
NE Newshound	Noavg 84.9¢	$3.7K	$2.8K	+$15.99	0% 0-161 (161)
PL plusti	Noavg 85.8¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$22.16	11% 4-31 (35)
PA pagliacci4	Noavg 84¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$25.6	18% 7-32 (39)
LooksMaxxingx	Noavg 85.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$15	1% 7-628 (635)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Yesavg 15.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$29.13	0% 1-266 (267)
JJo	Noavg 83¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$30	— 0-7 (7)
KL klli27	Noavg 85.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$22.8	27% 499-1343 (1842)
TBill1ARB<$100	Yesavg 13.5¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	+$252	0% 0-105 (105)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 13.5¢	$568.53	$671.99	+$182
└ No leg	Noavg 71¢	$355	$425	+$70
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 84.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$4.71	— 12-2 (14)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 83.8¢	$2.7K	$943.34	+$28.71	23% 510-1692 (2202)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 85.8¢	$901.47	$888.02	-$13.46	— 2-0 (2)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 83.5¢	$3.0K	$883.83	+$4.17	— 1-10 (11)

Parz1vaI

Invested

$44,880.41

Value

$45.3K

PnL

+$465.78

Record

72%

1106-420 (1526)

0x6bAB66c4BB24c96Ed14dccA0f0979B38a6830FE5-1760703674960

Invested

$16,956.73

Value

$16.8K

PnL

-$112.17

Record

63%

175-102 (277)

Ronaldo2100

Invested

$9,777.66

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$333.33

Record

0-29 (29)

Hannah-Montana

Invested

$8,549.99

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$50

Record

—

0-10 (10)

bruhzilCTR

Yes

Invested

$6,006.72

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$494.12

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Bet1nthedark

Invested

$6,041.5

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$36

Record

—

0-4 (4)

Tenebrus7

Invested

$7,651.48

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$3.59

Record

0-41 (41)

dromedaryyCTR

Yes

Invested

$3,875.63

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$665.82

Record

27%

41-112 (153)

WarriorH

Invested

$4,428.41

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$35.47

Record

—

0-12 (12)

Gdub

Invested

$3,388.29

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$20.41

Record

—

0-5 (5)

AlphaBetaGamma2357

Invested

$3,320

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$80

Record

—

0-5 (5)

Lolakis

Invested

$6,095.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$5.17

Record

0-31 (31)

arjennnnn

Invested

$2,833.04

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

516-238 (754)

Newshound

Invested

$3,731.79

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$15.99

Record

0-161 (161)

plusti

Invested

$2,273.86

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$22.16

Record

11%

4-31 (35)

pagliacci4

Invested

$2,150.01

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$25.6

Record

18%

7-32 (39)

LooksMaxxingx

Invested

$2,139.99

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$15

Record

7-628 (635)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,766.17

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$29.13

Record

1-266 (267)

JJo

Invested

$1,659.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$30

Record

—

0-7 (7)

klli27

Invested

$1,342.03

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$22.8

Record

27%

499-1343 (1842)

TBill1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,464.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$252

Record

0-105 (105)

Both legs:

Yes$568.5313.5¢+$182

No$35571¢+$70

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$1,049.97

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$4.71

Record

—

12-2 (14)

SPLPB

Invested

$2,697.51

Value

$943.34

PnL

+$28.71

Record

23%

510-1692 (2202)

nonkenny90

Invested

$901.47

Value

$888.02

PnL

-$13.46

Record

—

2-0 (2)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$3,012.23

Value

$883.83

PnL

+$4.17

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

31 of 45 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

32 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 9

Aligned

ctrNo 58% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 73% · 41

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.