Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-11-07?

22 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold No (96%) · No at 67¢ · $129K held · ends Nov 8

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 96%

Total Value

$128.8K

Combined PnL

-$92.11

Smart Money Entry

68.5¢ → 66.5¢

-3% since entry · 22 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 67%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 23 top traders (96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$46.9K

Total Shares139,874

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No22 traders

Total Value$82.0K

Total Shares123,198

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Yes — 4%No — 96%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OH OhWhenTheRedsCTR	Yesavg 31.8¢	$44.4K	$46.9K	+$2.4K	45% 59-71 (130)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 67.4¢	$19.9K	$19.7K	-$251.36	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 69.1¢	$11.3K	$10.9K	-$418.42	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
LA LaarsY	Noavg 70¢	$11.2K	$10.6K	-$560	51% 3557-3462 (7019)
nigiri99	Noavg 69.1¢	$11.0K	$10.6K	-$404.6	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
RN1	Noavg 67¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	-$50	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
FO forecastication4	Noavg 70¢	$5.4K	$5.1K	-$268.24	50% 1423-1429 (2852)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 69.2¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$194.05	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
alpheclabs2	Noavg 67¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$23.73	47% 1366-1547 (2913)
HI hi774c	Noavg 69¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$113.56	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
BA Bayupati	Noavg 67¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$14.84	49% 269-278 (547)
GA Gaditima	Noavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10	47% 7503-8319 (15822)
NM NM-P	Noavg 70.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$66.25	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 70.3¢	$1.1K	$997.5	-$57.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 69.2¢	$948.48	$911.91	-$36.57	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
0xheavy888	Noavg 70¢	$420	$399	-$21	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
SE sentrio	Noavg 68.2¢	$268.27	$261.44	-$6.84	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 68.5¢	$144.43	$140.68	-$3.75	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Noavg 50¢	$304	$139	-$3.1	— 1-0 (1)
tradecraft	Noavg 68.5¢	$122.92	$119.41	-$3.51	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Noavg 70¢	$25	$23.75	-$1.25	55% 1428-1180 (2608)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 69¢	$10	$9.85	-$0.22	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.13	$4.2	+$0.07	52% 9022-8174 (17196)

OhWhenTheRedsCTR

Yes

Invested

$44,441.07

Value

$46.9K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

45%

59-71 (130)

Flaznorp

Invested

$19,926.95

Value

$19.7K

PnL

-$251.36

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$11,305.3

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$418.42

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

LaarsY

Invested

$11,200

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$560

Record

51%

3557-3462 (7019)

nigiri99

Invested

$10,966.89

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$404.6

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

RN1

Invested

$6,700

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$50

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

forecastication4

Invested

$5,364.8

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$268.24

Record

50%

1423-1429 (2852)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$5,007.73

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$194.05

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

alpheclabs2

Invested

$3,180.49

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$23.73

Record

47%

1366-1547 (2913)

hi774c

Invested

$3,148.55

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$113.56

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

Bayupati

Invested

$1,987.94

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$14.84

Record

49%

269-278 (547)

Gaditima

Invested

$1,340

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

47%

7503-8319 (15822)

NM-P

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$66.25

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Invested

$1,055

Value

$997.5

PnL

-$57.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$948.48

Value

$911.91

PnL

-$36.57

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

0xheavy888

Invested

$420

Value

$399

PnL

-$21

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

sentrio

Invested

$268.27

Value

$261.44

PnL

-$6.84

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$144.43

Value

$140.68

PnL

-$3.75

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Invested

$304

Value

$139

PnL

-$3.1

Record

—

1-0 (1)

tradecraft

Invested

$122.92

Value

$119.41

PnL

-$3.51

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

lonmi2511<$100

Invested

$25

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

55%

1428-1180 (2608)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$9.85

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

ameisgoat11<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

9022-8174 (17196)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 67%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

22 of 23 top traders (96%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.