Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (68%). 8 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5

8 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 33¢ · $20K held · ended Nov 12

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.3K

Combined PnL

$110.55

Smart Money Entry

50.9¢ → 32.5¢

-36% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares24,776

Combined PnL+$28.12

Over14 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares13,535

Combined PnL+$82.42

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 52¢	$6.1K	$6.3K	+$175.75	53% 1851-1666 (3517)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 51¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$43.12	54% 521-441 (962)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 48¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$41.53	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$40	23% 7-24 (31)
73 739633786	Overavg 48¢	$581.76	$581.76	-$0	6% 11-189 (200)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 64¢	$545.9	$545.9	-$0	55% 719-584 (1303)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Overavg 48.5¢	$481.1	$493.08	+$11.97	20% 99-384 (483)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$313.1	$312.83	-$0.28
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$168	$180.25	+$12.25
VeryLucky888	Overavg 48.1¢	$523.59	$473.25	+$7.13	52% 497-452 (949)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 52¢	$432	$353.08	-$78.92	15% 150-841 (991)
AN Anon455	Overavg 50¢	$282.83	$328.16	+$45.33	45% 183-223 (406)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 37.6¢	$372.01	$321.82	-$50.19	51% 1925-1864 (3789)
RN1CTR	Underavg 50.3¢	$399.85	$236.64	-$102.46	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$227.17	$228.31	+$1.14	59% 3478-2370 (5848)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$168	-$3.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$55.67	$60.31	+$4.64
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Overavg 48¢	$166.67	$168.4	+$1.74	48% 101-110 (211)
LI Limousin	Overavg 50¢	$175.41	$168.39	-$7.02	30% 401-920 (1321)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 49¢	$162.97	$159.64	-$3.33	47% 299-342 (641)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 50¢	$165.43	$158.81	-$6.62	31% 412-918 (1330)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 49.5¢	$296.08	$141.51	+$7.1	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$69.58	$73.84	+$4.26
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$69.73	$67.67	+$2.84
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 50¢	$65.23	$62.62	-$2.61	31% 410-897 (1307)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46	$51	+$5	53% 5815-5180 (10995)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$12.25	$13	+$0.75	49% 692-733 (1425)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 49¢	$26.4	$9.89	+$1.41	55% 680-552 (1232)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Underavg 56¢	$8.4	$8.48	+$0.08	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.85	+$0.05	34% 327-634 (961)
DV dv-pm<$100	Overavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.4	-$0.2	— 7-5 (12)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$6,128.02

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$175.75

Record

53%

1851-1666 (3517)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$4,398.03

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$43.12

Record

54%

521-441 (962)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$3,987.23

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$41.53

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$40

Record

23%

7-24 (31)

739633786

Over

Invested

$581.76

Value

$581.76

PnL

-$0

Record

11-189 (200)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$545.9

Value

$545.9

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

719-584 (1303)

GC-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$481.1

Value

$493.08

PnL

+$11.97

Record

20%

99-384 (483)

Both legs:

Over$313.148.5¢-$0.28

Under$16848¢+$12.25

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$523.59

Value

$473.25

PnL

+$7.13

Record

52%

497-452 (949)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$432

Value

$353.08

PnL

-$78.92

Record

15%

150-841 (991)

Anon455

Over

Invested

$282.83

Value

$328.16

PnL

+$45.33

Record

45%

183-223 (406)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$372.01

Value

$321.82

PnL

-$50.19

Record

51%

1925-1864 (3789)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$399.85

Value

$236.64

PnL

-$102.46

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$227.17

Value

$228.31

PnL

+$1.14

Record

59%

3478-2370 (5848)

Both legs:

Invested

$166.67

Value

$168.4

PnL

+$1.74

Record

48%

101-110 (211)

Limousin

Over

Invested

$175.41

Value

$168.39

PnL

-$7.02

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$162.97

Value

$159.64

PnL

-$3.33

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$165.43

Value

$158.81

PnL

-$6.62

Record

31%

412-918 (1330)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$296.08

Value

$141.51

PnL

+$7.1

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

Both legs:

Under$69.5849¢+$4.26

Over$69.7349.5¢+$2.84

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$65.23

Value

$62.62

PnL

-$2.61

Record

31%

410-897 (1307)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$51

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5815-5180 (10995)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.25

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.75

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$26.4

Value

$9.89

PnL

+$1.41

Record

55%

680-552 (1232)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.48

PnL

+$0.08

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$0.05

Record

34%

327-634 (961)

dv-pm<$100

Over

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

7-5 (12)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 33%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 22 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 68%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

27% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 12

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.