Spread: Warriors (-6.5)

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (45%) · Heat at 60¢ · $270K held · ends Nov 6

Warriors41¢Heat59¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 45%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$270.2K

Combined PnL

$47.8K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 59.5¢

+21% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 20 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Warriors41%

Heat60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Heat9 traders

Total Value$255.0K

Total Shares417,939

Combined PnL+$49.9K

Warriors11 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares27,446

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Heat — 45%Warriors — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpWarriors 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrWarriors 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 53% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEI	Heatavg 48.2¢	$77.4K	$97.8K	+$21.7K	53% 947-831 (1778)
nigiri99	Heatavg 49.2¢	$78.2K	$96.9K	+$18.7K	46% 8595-10246 (18841)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Heatavg 48.2¢	$19.3K	$24.4K	+$5.1K	47% 511-584 (1095)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Heatavg 55¢	$16.4K	$18.1K	+$1.6K	48% 347-378 (725)
CUTJALENHURTS	Heatavg 49¢	$7.3K	$9.1K	+$1.8K	52% 6135-5765 (11900)
IA ianf2026	Heatavg 47¢	$3.3K	$4.2K	+$884.88	49% 104-109 (213)
JE jeremyclarCTR	Warriorsavg 46.3¢	$4.4K	$3.7K	-$689.99	42% 53-74 (127)
AY ay118	Heatavg 61.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$11.48	43% 50-66 (116)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Heatavg 49.6¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$369.17	60% 4623-3029 (7652)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 49.6¢	$1.9K	$2.3K	+$435.59
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 43.4¢	$648.69	$582.27	-$66.42
HI hi774cCTR	Warriorsavg 47.9¢	$2.6K	$2.2K	-$490.83	46% 5201-6053 (11254)
FE fekefeeCTR	Warriorsavg 46.2¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$285.77	95% 35-2 (37)
73 739633786	Heatavg 50.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$210.05	43% 406-531 (937)
VI vibing123CTR	Warriorsavg 50.2¢	$965.06	$749.01	-$216.05	51% 1630-1540 (3170)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Warriorsavg 45.7¢	$732.12	$682.76	-$49.36	64% 9929-5531 (15460)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 45.7¢	$436.97	$387.62	-$49.36
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 59.5¢	$295.14	$295.14	+$0
RN1ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 42.9¢	$686.77	$679.02	-$7.75	53% 61386-53697 (115083)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 42.9¢	$445.2	$420.39	-$24.81
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 55.6¢	$241.57	$258.63	+$17.06
OD OddstormCTR	Warriorsavg 46.2¢	$776.75	$655.27	-$121.48	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
VeryLucky888CTR	Warriorsavg 49.5¢	$1.2K	$546	-$195.26	58% 46718-33677 (80395)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Warriorsavg 40.6¢	$508.85	$507.29	-$1.56	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
38 38791873984189CTR	Warriorsavg 43.6¢	$828.77	$309.59	-$26.64	48% 61202-65999 (127201)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Warriorsavg 48.2¢	$317.95	$257.02	-$36.25	54% 522-445 (967)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Warriorsavg 41¢	$246	$234	-$12	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Warriorsavg 47¢	$129.48	$128.48	-$1	50% 25837-25546 (51383)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 47¢	$75.06	$64.74	-$10.32
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 50.8¢	$54.41	$63.73	+$9.32
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Heatavg 58.2¢	$85.08	$86.88	+$1.8	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
PA Pan9XCTR	Warriorsavg 42.2¢	$126.96	$86.49	-$1.95	54% 9742-8135 (17877)

SineNooneEI

Heat

Invested

$77,384.46

Value

$97.8K

PnL

+$21.7K

Record

53%

947-831 (1778)

nigiri99

Heat

Invested

$78,205.82

Value

$96.9K

PnL

+$18.7K

Record

46%

8595-10246 (18841)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Heat

Invested

$19,327.42

Value

$24.4K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

47%

511-584 (1095)

Multicoloured-Serf

Heat

Invested

$16,397.45

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

CUTJALENHURTS

Heat

Invested

$7,288.29

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

6135-5765 (11900)

ianf2026

Heat

Invested

$3,327.12

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$884.88

Record

49%

104-109 (213)

jeremyclarCTR

Warriors

Invested

$4,396.55

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$689.99

Record

42%

53-74 (127)

ay118

Heat

Invested

$3,038.42

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$11.48

Record

43%

50-66 (116)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$2,535.37

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$369.17

Record

60%

4623-3029 (7652)

Both legs:

Heat$1,886.6849.6¢+$435.59

Warriors$648.6943.4¢-$66.42

hi774cCTR

Warriors

Invested

$2,649.06

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$490.83

Record

46%

5201-6053 (11254)

fekefeeCTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,825.65

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$285.77

Record

95%

35-2 (37)

739633786

Heat

Invested

$1,111.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$210.05

Record

43%

406-531 (937)

vibing123CTR

Warriors

Invested

$965.06

Value

$749.01

PnL

-$216.05

Record

51%

1630-1540 (3170)

NM-PARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$732.12

Value

$682.76

PnL

-$49.36

Record

64%

9929-5531 (15460)

Both legs:

Warriors$436.9745.7¢-$49.36

Heat$295.1459.5¢+$0

RN1ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$686.77

Value

$679.02

PnL

-$7.75

Record

53%

61386-53697 (115083)

Both legs:

Warriors$445.242.9¢-$24.81

Heat$241.5755.6¢+$17.06

OddstormCTR

Warriors

Invested

$776.75

Value

$655.27

PnL

-$121.48

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

VeryLucky888CTR

Warriors

Invested

$1,220

Value

$546

PnL

-$195.26

Record

58%

46718-33677 (80395)

HerdoniaCTR

Warriors

Invested

$508.85

Value

$507.29

PnL

-$1.56

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

38791873984189CTR

Warriors

Invested

$828.77

Value

$309.59

PnL

-$26.64

Record

48%

61202-65999 (127201)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Warriors

Invested

$317.95

Value

$257.02

PnL

-$36.25

Record

54%

522-445 (967)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Warriors

Invested

$246

Value

$234

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

sentrioARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$129.48

Value

$128.48

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

25837-25546 (51383)

Both legs:

Warriors$75.0647¢-$10.32

Heat$54.4150.8¢+$9.32

HomeRunHazard<$100

Heat

Invested

$85.08

Value

$86.88

PnL

+$1.8

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

Pan9XCTR

Warriors

Invested

$126.96

Value

$86.49

PnL

-$1.95

Record

54%

9742-8135 (17877)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 20 top traders (45%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Heat. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHeat 80% · 5

Aligned

sharpWarriors 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrWarriors 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedWarriors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Warriors 53% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.