Spread: Knicks (-14.5)

14 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Bucks (64%) · Bucks at 57¢ · $69K held · ended Nov 11

Knicks43¢Bucks57¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Bucks

Consensus Traders

Bucks 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$69.1K

Combined PnL

$7.4K

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 57¢

+24% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

14 of 22 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Knicks43%

Bucks57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bucks14 traders

Total Value$50.4K

Total Shares89,455

Combined PnL+$8.4K

Knicks8 traders

Total Value$16.5K

Total Shares32,090

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Bucks — 64%Knicks — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (19 on Bucks) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 63% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Bucksavg 46¢	$34.3K	$41.8K	+$7.5K	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
TM TMingchanCTR	Knicksavg 54¢	$10.8K	$10.6K	-$200	15% 6-35 (41)
HO HomeRunHazard	Bucksavg 46.4¢	$6.0K	$6.7K	+$911.72	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
nigiri99CTR	Knicksavg 55¢	$4.9K	$3.8K	-$880.55	52% 128-120 (248)
VeryLucky888CTR	Knicksavg 51.8¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	+$32.31	51% 299-291 (590)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Bucksavg 46.5¢	$646	$647	+$1	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 46.5¢	$325.5	$329	+$3.5
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 53.4¢	$320.5	$318	-$2.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Knicksavg 55.5¢	$657.16	$582.33	-$14.41	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 47.2¢	$294.09	$317.73	+$23.64
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 55.5¢	$299.79	$264.6	-$38.05
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Knicksavg 53¢	$586.92	$565.27	-$21.66	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Bucksavg 46.5¢	$506.09	$509.48	+$3.39	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 46.5¢	$320.54	$323.93	+$3.39
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 53¢	$185.55	$185.55	-$0
SU SunlineTicker	Bucksavg 46¢	$455.4	$465.3	+$9.9	70% 1655-702 (2357)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Bucksavg 48¢	$421.88	$448.25	+$26.37	56% 488-383 (871)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Bucksavg 48.2¢	$363.63	$381.2	+$17.58	51% 3172-3071 (6243)
└ Bucks leg	Bucksavg 48.2¢	$210.48	$229.3	+$18.83
└ Knicks leg	Knicksavg 47.9¢	$153.15	$151.9	-$1.25
VI vibing123CTR	Knicksavg 55¢	$275	$265	-$10	63% 1078-642 (1720)
TA takeormake	Bucksavg 47.2¢	$210.69	$227.46	+$16.77	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bucksavg 48¢	$192	$188	-$4	10% 88-785 (873)
LI LightParadox	Bucksavg 45¢	$143.88	$150.27	+$6.39	28% 274-715 (989)
JU justaluckydude	Bucksavg 54¢	$120.96	$120.96	+$0	30% 134-317 (451)
RN1	Bucksavg 51.4¢	$99.33	$104.34	+$5.02	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Bucksavg 46.5¢	$80.48	$81.36	+$0.88	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bucksavg 48¢	$41.77	$44.37	+$2.6	49% 443-470 (913)
VE Venusian<$100	Bucksavg 46¢	$23.92	$24.44	+$0.52	28% 278-729 (1007)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Knicksavg 53¢	$19.01	$19.01	+$0	7% 9-124 (133)
MA MadridTime<$100	Bucksavg 46¢	$15.64	$15.98	+$0.34	28% 278-703 (981)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Bucksavg 45.6¢	$11.17	$12.14	+$0.96	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Knicksavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.6	-$0.2	55% 119-96 (215)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Bucks

Invested

$34,344.99

Value

$41.8K

PnL

+$7.5K

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

TMingchanCTR

Knicks

Invested

$10,800

Value

$10.6K

PnL

-$200

Record

15%

6-35 (41)

HomeRunHazard

Bucks

Invested

$6,019.1

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$911.72

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

nigiri99CTR

Knicks

Invested

$4,894.1

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$880.55

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

VeryLucky888CTR

Knicks

Invested

$1,424.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$32.31

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

NM-PARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$646

Value

$647

PnL

+$1

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Bucks$325.546.5¢+$3.5

Knicks$320.553.4¢-$2.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Knicks

Invested

$657.16

Value

$582.33

PnL

-$14.41

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Bucks$294.0947.2¢+$23.64

Knicks$299.7955.5¢-$38.05

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Knicks

Invested

$586.92

Value

$565.27

PnL

-$21.66

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

GC-PARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$506.09

Value

$509.48

PnL

+$3.39

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Bucks$320.5446.5¢+$3.39

Knicks$185.5553¢-$0

SunlineTicker

Bucks

Invested

$455.4

Value

$465.3

PnL

+$9.9

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Bucks

Invested

$421.88

Value

$448.25

PnL

+$26.37

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bucks

Invested

$363.63

Value

$381.2

PnL

+$17.58

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Both legs:

Bucks$210.4848.2¢+$18.83

Knicks$153.1547.9¢-$1.25

vibing123CTR

Knicks

Invested

$275

Value

$265

PnL

-$10

Record

63%

1078-642 (1720)

takeormake

Bucks

Invested

$210.69

Value

$227.46

PnL

+$16.77

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bucks

Invested

$192

Value

$188

PnL

-$4

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

LightParadox

Bucks

Invested

$143.88

Value

$150.27

PnL

+$6.39

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

justaluckydude

Bucks

Invested

$120.96

Value

$120.96

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

RN1

Bucks

Invested

$99.33

Value

$104.34

PnL

+$5.02

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

SnakeBall<$100

Bucks

Invested

$80.48

Value

$81.36

PnL

+$0.88

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X<$100

Bucks

Invested

$41.77

Value

$44.37

PnL

+$2.6

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

Venusian<$100

Bucks

Invested

$23.92

Value

$24.44

PnL

+$0.52

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$19.01

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$0

Record

9-124 (133)

MadridTime<$100

Bucks

Invested

$15.64

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.34

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

Flaznorp<$100

Bucks

Invested

$11.17

Value

$12.14

PnL

+$0.96

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Knicks

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

Research grade

AvoidBucks at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Bucks

14 of 22 top traders (64%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bucks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Knicks) and the top 1000 (19 on Bucks) disagree here.

whaleBucks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBucks 54% · 13

Aligned

Hand-pickedKnicks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bucks 63% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bucks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.