Pelicans vs. Warriors

6 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Warriors (26%) · Warriors at 78¢ · $79K held · ends Nov 10

Pelicans23¢Warriors77¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Warriors

Consensus Traders

Warriors 26%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$79.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

79.4¢ → 77.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 23 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans23%

Warriors78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Warriors6 traders

Total Value$64.8K

Total Shares83,605

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Pelicans17 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares46,541

Combined PnL+$388.6

Warriors — 26%Pelicans — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 80% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Warriorsavg 79.5¢	$61.1K	$59.5K	$-1.6K	— 4-3 (7)
DA darkumbreon88	Warriorsavg 78¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$31	65% 2215-1212 (3427)
nigiri99CTR	Pelicansavg 22.3¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$28.48	45% 14894-18236 (33130)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 21¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$126.7	54% 20337-17176 (37513)
HI hi774cCTR	Pelicansavg 20.7¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$145.55	46% 5711-6614 (12325)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Warriorsavg 77.9¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$15	57% 22802-16902 (39704)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 77.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$6.25
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 21.3¢	$372.5	$393.75	+$21.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Warriorsavg 77.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$20.65	57% 22654-16900 (39554)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 77.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$6.85
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 20.7¢	$310	$337.5	+$27.5
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Warriorsavg 78.9¢	$1.5K	$910.15	+$19.53	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
└ Warriors leg	Warriorsavg 78.9¢	$715.89	$702.93	-$12.72
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 20.4¢	$187.91	$207.22	+$32.25
PU purplegattoCTR	Pelicansavg 22¢	$666.89	$621.42	-$45.46	49% 6750-6948 (13698)
Medo3DCTR	Pelicansavg 21.8¢	$545.74	$562.5	+$16.76	41% 198-289 (487)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Pelicansavg 22.8¢	$491.94	$486	-$5.94	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Pelicansavg 21.4¢	$442.43	$423.09	-$19.34	50% 49262-48786 (98048)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Pelicansavg 20¢	$332.8	$374.4	+$41.6	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
VeryLucky888CTR	Pelicansavg 20.7¢	$930	$337.5	+$67.5	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
TA takeormakeCTR	Pelicansavg 21¢	$318.15	$318.15	+$0	52% 5780-5433 (11213)
RI Richidd	Warriorsavg 80.8¢	$303	$298.13	-$4.88	50% 68-67 (135)
LI LimousinCTR	Pelicansavg 22.9¢	$207.32	$190.47	-$4.54	46% 2762-3197 (5959)
OD OddstormCTR	Pelicansavg 21¢	$164.77	$176.67	+$11.89	48% 8399-8933 (17332)
GA GaditimaCTR	Pelicansavg 21.7¢	$158.52	$162.38	+$3.87	47% 8793-9983 (18776)
GH ghorrock	Warriorsavg 78.2¢	$257.91	$117.74	+$1.32	57% 25501-19040 (44541)
FO forecastication4CTR	Pelicansavg 20¢	$101	$113.63	+$2.53	50% 1633-1617 (3250)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 21.8¢	$61.14	$58.82	+$1.4	54% 630-529 (1159)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 14¢	$31.46	$47.19	+$16.85	14% 9531-61028 (70559)
PA Pan9X	Warriorsavg 75.2¢	$138.61	$35.78	+$3.2	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 20¢	$30	$30.75	+$0.75	48% 175-188 (363)

bigbeliever

Warriors

Invested

$61,104.6

Value

$59.5K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

—

4-3 (7)

darkumbreon88

Warriors

Invested

$4,835.51

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$31

Record

65%

2215-1212 (3427)

nigiri99CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$2,623.37

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$28.48

Record

45%

14894-18236 (33130)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,793.29

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$126.7

Record

54%

20337-17176 (37513)

hi774cCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,690.9

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$145.55

Record

46%

5711-6614 (12325)

NM-PARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,735

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$15

Record

57%

22802-16902 (39704)

Both legs:

Warriors$1,362.577.9¢-$6.25

Pelicans$372.521.3¢+$21.25

GC-PARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,579.78

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$20.65

Record

57%

22654-16900 (39554)

Both legs:

Warriors$1,269.7877.9¢-$6.85

Pelicans$31020.7¢+$27.5

38791873984189ARB<$100

Warriors

Invested

$1,492.42

Value

$910.15

PnL

+$19.53

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

Both legs:

Warriors$715.8978.9¢-$12.72

Pelicans$187.9120.4¢+$32.25

purplegattoCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$666.89

Value

$621.42

PnL

-$45.46

Record

49%

6750-6948 (13698)

Medo3DCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$545.74

Value

$562.5

PnL

+$16.76

Record

41%

198-289 (487)

LightParadoxCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$491.94

Value

$486

PnL

-$5.94

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

SnakeBallCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$442.43

Value

$423.09

PnL

-$19.34

Record

50%

49262-48786 (98048)

FlaznorpCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$332.8

Value

$374.4

PnL

+$41.6

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

VeryLucky888CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$930

Value

$337.5

PnL

+$67.5

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

takeormakeCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$318.15

Value

$318.15

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

5780-5433 (11213)

Richidd

Warriors

Invested

$303

Value

$298.13

PnL

-$4.88

Record

50%

68-67 (135)

LimousinCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$207.32

Value

$190.47

PnL

-$4.54

Record

46%

2762-3197 (5959)

OddstormCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$164.77

Value

$176.67

PnL

+$11.89

Record

48%

8399-8933 (17332)

GaditimaCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$158.52

Value

$162.38

PnL

+$3.87

Record

47%

8793-9983 (18776)

ghorrock

Warriors

Invested

$257.91

Value

$117.74

PnL

+$1.32

Record

57%

25501-19040 (44541)

forecastication4CTR

Pelicans

Invested

$101

Value

$113.63

PnL

+$2.53

Record

50%

1633-1617 (3250)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$61.14

Value

$58.82

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

630-529 (1159)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$31.46

Value

$47.19

PnL

+$16.85

Record

14%

9531-61028 (70559)

Pan9X

Warriors

Invested

$138.61

Value

$35.78

PnL

+$3.2

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

biying99999CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$30

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$0.75

Record

48%

175-188 (363)

Research grade

AvoidWarriors at 78%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Warriors

6 of 23 top traders (26%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Warriors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperWarriors 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPelicans 80% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Pelicans 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Warriors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.