Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 13 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5

13 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (62%) · Under at 28¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 11

Over72¢Under28¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.8K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 28.5¢

-45% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$16.9K

Total Shares30,599

Combined PnL-$122.19

Under13 traders

Total Value$18.0K

Total Shares31,955

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 48¢	$13.6K	$12.4K	$-1.3K	57% 3101-2332 (5433)
FU Fund01CTR	Underavg 52¢	$10.6K	$11.8K	+$1.2K	—
HI hi774cARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$4.0K	$3.7K	-$219.9	10% 46-435 (481)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$3.0K	$2.6K	-$375
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$969.39	$1.1K	+$155.1
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Underavg 52¢	$3.0K	$3.3K	+$347.4	1% 1-170 (171)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48.6¢	$1.9K	$2.7K	+$828.12	54% 1691-1468 (3159)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$230.71	55% 541-436 (977)
KA KasonWongCTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$120	15% 4-22 (26)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.5¢	$745	$790	+$45	17% 75-358 (433)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.5¢	$505	$580	+$75
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$240	$210	-$30
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 58.2¢	$1.2K	$783.47	-$292.51	58% 3865-2855 (6720)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.5¢	$393.35	$497.81	+$104.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.2¢	$583.23	$285.66	-$396.97
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$712.2	$552.07	+$3.92	48% 1027-1110 (2137)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.8¢	$263.91	$381.27	+$117.59
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$294.14	$170.8	-$113.67
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50.9¢	$512.41	$520.2	+$7.79	60% 3453-2346 (5799)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.9¢	$272.41	$310.2	+$37.79
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$240	$210	-$30
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$581.62	$479.03	-$102.59	51% 3187-3102 (6289)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.9¢	$242.83	$304.96	+$62.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$338.79	$174.07	-$164.72
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 49¢	$393.3	$465.54	+$72.24	48% 515-569 (1084)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$588.58	$403.73	+$60.15	51% 354-335 (689)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 43.3¢	$495.21	$325.74	-$169.47	28% 317-800 (1117)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 45.2¢	$205.56	$316.92	+$111.36	50% 1618-1607 (3225)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 52¢	$208	$232	+$24	12% 105-801 (906)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 44¢	$150.48	$143.64	-$6.84	48% 231-247 (478)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 43.2¢	$163.56	$107.89	-$55.67	53% 228-199 (427)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$78.03	$88.74	+$10.71	40% 246-365 (611)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 57.9¢	$117.77	$74.92	-$1.07	49% 498-518 (1016)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 47¢	$70.5	$63	-$7.5	68% 1614-757 (2371)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$73.93	$53.89	-$20.04	29% 329-806 (1135)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$24.13	$18.24	+$1.27	54% 445-377 (822)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 48¢	$13.86	$13.55	-$0.31	57% 145-111 (256)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$13,628.71

Value

$12.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

57%

3101-2332 (5433)

Fund01CTR

Under

Invested

$10,601.69

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

hi774cARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,969.39

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$219.9

Record

10%

46-435 (481)

Both legs:

Over$3,00048¢-$375

Under$969.3950¢+$155.1

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Under

Invested

$2,999.36

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$347.4

Record

1-170 (171)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,912.99

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$828.12

Record

54%

1691-1468 (3159)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$1,050.5

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$230.71

Record

55%

541-436 (977)

KasonWongCTR

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$120

Record

15%

4-22 (26)

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$745

Value

$790

PnL

+$45

Record

17%

75-358 (433)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,237.26

Value

$783.47

PnL

-$292.51

Record

58%

3865-2855 (6720)

Both legs:

Over$393.3556.5¢+$104.46

Under$583.2358.2¢-$396.97

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$712.2

Value

$552.07

PnL

+$3.92

Record

48%

1027-1110 (2137)

Both legs:

Over$263.9148.8¢+$117.59

Under$294.1450.8¢-$113.67

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$512.41

Value

$520.2

PnL

+$7.79

Record

60%

3453-2346 (5799)

Both legs:

Under$272.4150.9¢+$37.79

Over$24048¢-$30

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$581.62

Value

$479.03

PnL

-$102.59

Record

51%

3187-3102 (6289)

Both legs:

Over$242.8356.9¢+$62.13

Under$338.7955.5¢-$164.72

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$393.3

Value

$465.54

PnL

+$72.24

Record

48%

515-569 (1084)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$588.58

Value

$403.73

PnL

+$60.15

Record

51%

354-335 (689)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$495.21

Value

$325.74

PnL

-$169.47

Record

28%

317-800 (1117)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$205.56

Value

$316.92

PnL

+$111.36

Record

50%

1618-1607 (3225)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$208

Value

$232

PnL

+$24

Record

12%

105-801 (906)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$150.48

Value

$143.64

PnL

-$6.84

Record

48%

231-247 (478)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$163.56

Value

$107.89

PnL

-$55.67

Record

53%

228-199 (427)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78.03

Value

$88.74

PnL

+$10.71

Record

40%

246-365 (611)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$117.77

Value

$74.92

PnL

-$1.07

Record

49%

498-518 (1016)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$70.5

Value

$63

PnL

-$7.5

Record

68%

1614-757 (2371)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$73.93

Value

$53.89

PnL

-$20.04

Record

29%

329-806 (1135)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$24.13

Value

$18.24

PnL

+$1.27

Record

54%

445-377 (822)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.55

PnL

-$0.31

Record

57%

145-111 (256)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 21 top traders (62%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

68% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.