Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Suns (51%). 14 of 21 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Suns

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (67%) · Magic at 50¢ · $167K held · ends Nov 6

Magic50¢Suns50¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 67%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$167.2K

Combined PnL

-$742.18

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 49.5¢

+0% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic50%

Suns51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic14 traders

Total Value$148.6K

Total Shares293,124

Combined PnL-$543.86

Suns7 traders

Total Value$11.1K

Total Shares22,035

Combined PnL-$198.31

Magic — 67%Suns — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (23 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleMagic 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpMagic 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 62% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 70% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Magicavg 49.8¢	$135.9K	$135.2K	-$728.51	53% 6260-5539 (11799)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Magicavg 48.8¢	$8.6K	$8.6K	+$55.29	54% 18232-15342 (33574)
JO JoeyAroyyOO	Sunsavg 51.5¢	$11.7K	$5.9K	-$115.59	48% 87-96 (183)
nigiri99ARB<$100	Sunsavg 52.3¢	$4.6K	$4.3K	-$13.16	46% 8594-10246 (18840)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52.3¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$63.05
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49.5¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$49.89
LI lightotunnel35	Sunsavg 52¢	$4.3K	$4.1K	-$122.94	59% 94-65 (159)
PU purplegattoCTR	Magicavg 49.2¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$11.97	49% 6290-6450 (12740)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.75	64% 9927-5529 (15456)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$755	$757.5	+$2.5
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48¢	$359.99	$371.24	+$11.25
SE sentrioCTR	Magicavg 48.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$26.39	50% 25827-25531 (51358)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Sunsavg 50¢	$859.99	$876.24	+$16.25	64% 9969-5597 (15566)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48¢	$359.99	$371.24	+$11.25
VeryLucky888	Sunsavg 50¢	$2.5K	$756.48	+$61.99	58% 46700-33657 (80357)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Sunsavg 51¢	$406.82	$409.76	+$2.94	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 51¢	$265.77	$265.77	+$0
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48¢	$141.05	$143.99	+$2.94
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$871.5	$376.69	+$20.03	48% 61189-65989 (127178)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50.3¢	$217.73	$218.67	+$2.96
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 47.2¢	$150.62	$158.03	+$17.07
KA Kaczka	Sunsavg 52.7¢	$426.09	$312.91	-$21.21	51% 473-453 (926)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Magicavg 47¢	$284.9	$297.03	+$3.03	51% 4768-4629 (9397)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Magicavg 49¢	$294	$294	+$0	51% 1902-1853 (3755)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Magicavg 50.2¢	$266.05	$259.93	-$6.12	50% 21182-21443 (42625)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Magicavg 48¢	$2.8K	$228.92	+$115.88	49% 437-460 (897)
VI vibing123CTR	Magicavg 49.2¢	$196.99	$196	+$2	51% 1627-1537 (3164)
DA darkumbreon88ARB<$100	Magicavg 49¢	$138.27	$138.35	+$0.08	64% 1961-1091 (3052)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49¢	$99.48	$100.49	+$1.02
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 51.7¢	$38.79	$37.85	-$0.93
OD OddstormARB<$100	Sunsavg 50.7¢	$115.2	$116.06	+$0.44	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 50.7¢	$74.4	$74.9	+$0.5
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 48.6¢	$40.8	$41.16	-$0.06
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Sunsavg 52¢	$153	$100	-$2	53% 12487-11218 (23705)
└ Suns leg	Sunsavg 52¢	$52	$50.5	-$2.5
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49¢	$49	$49.5	+$0.5
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Magicavg 49¢	$56.56	$56.56	-$0	49% 3217-3390 (6607)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 49.4¢	$31.84	$27.25	-$0.2	58% 21213-15412 (36625)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100	Sunsavg 52.2¢	$23.2	$22.65	-$0.55	49% 376-399 (775)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Magicavg 48¢	$51.64	$15.78	+$0.29	54% 9740-8132 (17872)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Magic

Invested

$135,948.17

Value

$135.2K

PnL

-$728.51

Record

53%

6260-5539 (11799)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Magic

Invested

$8,555.64

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$55.29

Record

54%

18232-15342 (33574)

JoeyAroyyOO

Suns

Invested

$11,651.51

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$115.59

Record

48%

87-96 (183)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$4,627.03

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$13.16

Record

46%

8594-10246 (18840)

Both legs:

Suns$2,368.8252.3¢-$63.05

Magic$2,008.8749.5¢+$49.89

lightotunnel35

Suns

Invested

$4,262.29

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$122.94

Record

59%

94-65 (159)

purplegattoCTR

Magic

Invested

$2,377.25

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$11.97

Record

49%

6290-6450 (12740)

NM-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$1,114.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.75

Record

64%

9927-5529 (15456)

Both legs:

Suns$75550.3¢+$2.5

Magic$359.9948¢+$11.25

sentrioCTR

Magic

Invested

$1,010.31

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$26.39

Record

50%

25827-25531 (51358)

GC-PARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$859.99

Value

$876.24

PnL

+$16.25

Record

64%

9969-5597 (15566)

Both legs:

Suns$50050¢+$5

Magic$359.9948¢+$11.25

VeryLucky888

Suns

Invested

$2,482.94

Value

$756.48

PnL

+$61.99

Record

58%

46700-33657 (80357)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$406.82

Value

$409.76

PnL

+$2.94

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Both legs:

Suns$265.7751¢+$0

Magic$141.0548¢+$2.94

38791873984189ARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$871.5

Value

$376.69

PnL

+$20.03

Record

48%

61189-65989 (127178)

Both legs:

Suns$217.7350.3¢+$2.96

Magic$150.6247.2¢+$17.07

Kaczka

Suns

Invested

$426.09

Value

$312.91

PnL

-$21.21

Record

51%

473-453 (926)

6512395314597884CTR

Magic

Invested

$284.9

Value

$297.03

PnL

+$3.03

Record

51%

4768-4629 (9397)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Magic

Invested

$294

Value

$294

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

1902-1853 (3755)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Magic

Invested

$266.05

Value

$259.93

PnL

-$6.12

Record

50%

21182-21443 (42625)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Magic

Invested

$2,836.55

Value

$228.92

PnL

+$115.88

Record

49%

437-460 (897)

vibing123CTR

Magic

Invested

$196.99

Value

$196

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1627-1537 (3164)

darkumbreon88ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$138.27

Value

$138.35

PnL

+$0.08

Record

64%

1961-1091 (3052)

Both legs:

Magic$99.4849¢+$1.02

Suns$38.7951.7¢-$0.93

OddstormARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$115.2

Value

$116.06

PnL

+$0.44

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

Both legs:

Suns$74.450.7¢+$0.5

Magic$40.848.6¢-$0.06

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Suns

Invested

$153

Value

$100

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

12487-11218 (23705)

Both legs:

Invested

$56.56

Value

$56.56

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

3217-3390 (6607)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$31.84

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$0.2

Record

58%

21213-15412 (36625)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be<$100

Suns

Invested

$23.2

Value

$22.65

PnL

-$0.55

Record

49%

376-399 (775)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$51.64

Value

$15.78

PnL

+$0.29

Record

54%

9740-8132 (17872)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

14 of 21 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Suns 51%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Suns) and the top 1000 (23 on Magic) disagree here.

whaleMagic 100% · 5

Aligned

sharpMagic 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrMagic 62% · 21

Aligned

Hand-pickedSuns 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Magic 70% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.