Spread: Magic (-5.5)

6 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (30%) · Magic at 51¢ · $191K held · ends Nov 11

Magic51¢Kings49¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 30%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$190.8K

Combined PnL

$61.33

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

6 of 20 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Magic51%

Kings50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic6 traders

Total Value$106.3K

Total Shares210,635

Combined PnL-$798.17

Kings14 traders

Total Value$83.3K

Total Shares168,360

Combined PnL+$859.5

Magic — 30%Kings — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMagic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 71% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI SineNooneEI	Magicavg 51¢	$79.3K	$78.5K	-$777.47	55% 627-518 (1145)
RJ RJW1CTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$75.5K	$76.2K	+$786.65	47% 116-129 (245)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Magicavg 50¢	$17.4K	$17.6K	+$173.92	47% 500-558 (1058)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Magicavg 52¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$205.52	54% 514-436 (950)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Magicavg 50¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$46.36	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$44.85	28% 274-715 (989)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$22.15	70% 1655-702 (2357)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Kingsavg 47.7¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$39.91	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
LI LimousinCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$466.87	$476.6	+$9.73	28% 284-730 (1014)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Magicavg 53.1¢	$449.94	$441.88	-$8.06	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 53.1¢	$244.03	$234.25	-$9.78
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.6¢	$205.91	$207.63	+$1.72
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Magicavg 54¢	$468.71	$433.99	-$34.72	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Magicavg 54¢	$361.36	$355.25	-$6.11	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 46.9¢	$172.36	$180.25	+$7.89
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 54¢	$189	$175	-$14
GC GC-PARB<$100	Magicavg 54¢	$353.5	$346.5	-$7	16% 67-351 (418)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 54¢	$189	$175	-$14
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 47¢	$164.5	$171.5	+$7
VeryLucky888CTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$490.36	$245	-$5.22	51% 299-291 (590)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kingsavg 49¢	$196	$196	+$0	10% 88-785 (873)
SE sentrioCTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$103.18	$107.57	+$4.39	34% 233-457 (690)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kingsavg 48.7¢	$44.32	$44.59	+$0.27	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X<$100	Magicavg 53¢	$39.59	$21.89	-$0.74	49% 443-470 (913)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Kingsavg 48¢	$11.04	$11.27	+$0.23	52% 128-120 (248)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Kingsavg 46.8¢	$9.35	$9.8	+$0.45	26% 180-518 (698)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.9	+$0.2	55% 119-96 (215)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$1.8	$1.88	+$0.08	8% 37-422 (459)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Kingsavg 46¢	$1.62	$1.72	+$0.11	50% 1503-1507 (3010)

SineNooneEI

Magic

Invested

$79,301.9

Value

$78.5K

PnL

-$777.47

Record

55%

627-518 (1145)

RJW1CTR

Kings

Invested

$75,454.55

Value

$76.2K

PnL

+$786.65

Record

47%

116-129 (245)

Multicoloured-Serf

Magic

Invested

$17,392

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$173.92

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Magic

Invested

$5,297.1

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$205.52

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Magic

Invested

$4,636.46

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$46.36

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

LightParadoxCTR

Kings

Invested

$2,152.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$44.85

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

SunlineTickerCTR

Kings

Invested

$2,215

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$22.15

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Kings

Invested

$1,517.73

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$39.91

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

LimousinCTR

Kings

Invested

$466.87

Value

$476.6

PnL

+$9.73

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$449.94

Value

$441.88

PnL

-$8.06

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Magic$244.0353.1¢-$9.78

Kings$205.9148.6¢+$1.72

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Magic

Invested

$468.71

Value

$433.99

PnL

-$34.72

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

NM-PARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$361.36

Value

$355.25

PnL

-$6.11

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

Both legs:

Kings$172.3646.9¢+$7.89

Magic$18954¢-$14

GC-PARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$353.5

Value

$346.5

PnL

-$7

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

Both legs:

Invested

$490.36

Value

$245

PnL

-$5.22

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kings

Invested

$196

Value

$196

PnL

+$0

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

sentrioCTR

Kings

Invested

$103.18

Value

$107.57

PnL

+$4.39

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$44.32

Value

$44.59

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X<$100

Magic

Invested

$39.59

Value

$21.89

PnL

-$0.74

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$11.04

Value

$11.27

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$9.35

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$0.45

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.2

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

hi774cCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.88

PnL

+$0.08

Record

37-422 (459)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$1.62

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.11

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

6 of 20 top traders (30%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperMagic 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrKings 82% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedKings 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 71% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.