Spread: Spurs (-14.5)

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Spurs (39%) · Spurs at 54¢ · $41K held · ends Nov 12

Spurs54¢Bulls46¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spurs

Consensus Traders

Spurs 39%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.5K

Combined PnL

$92.14

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 53.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 18 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spurs54%

Bulls47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spurs7 traders

Total Value$27.2K

Total Shares50,573

Combined PnL+$407.22

Bulls11 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares19,378

Combined PnL-$315.09

Spurs — 39%Bulls — 61%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 92% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM TMingchan	Spursavg 53¢	$7.8K	$7.9K	+$73.86	23% 11-36 (47)
RJ RJW1	Spursavg 52.5¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	+$131.97	47% 118-132 (250)
SI Siddhartha1	Spursavg 53¢	$5.8K	$5.9K	+$55.03	60% 94-62 (156)
nehcnehcCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.5K	-$197.12	25% 21-63 (84)
VI vibing123	Spursavg 52¢	$2.6K	$2.7K	+$100.1	63% 1099-655 (1754)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$72.83	31% 405-886 (1291)
rafaleaoo	Spursavg 53¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$40	2% 14-633 (647)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Bullsavg 47.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$32.41	57% 3226-2432 (5658)
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 47.4¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$50.99
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 52¢	$483.17	$501.75	+$18.58
VeryLucky888	Spursavg 52.8¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	+$5.46	52% 490-447 (937)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Spursavg 53¢	$721.03	$720.75	-$0.27	59% 3478-2368 (5846)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 53¢	$463.75	$468.13	+$4.38
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 47.4¢	$257.28	$252.63	-$4.65
GC GC-PARB<$100	Spursavg 53¢	$712.25	$712.25	+$0	21% 99-382 (481)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 53¢	$463.75	$468.13	+$4.38
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 47.3¢	$248.5	$244.13	-$4.38
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Spursavg 52.8¢	$610.65	$612.05	+$1.4	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 52.8¢	$343.7	$347.93	+$4.24
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 47¢	$266.96	$264.12	-$2.84
DV dv-pmCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$613.32	$587.77	-$25.56	— 6-5 (11)
VE VenusianCTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$483.17	$477.63	-$5.54	31% 407-907 (1314)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$376	$368	-$8	15% 148-841 (989)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$283.05	$286.13	+$3.08	51% 3720-3550 (7270)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$218.82	$220.59	+$1.77	39% 382-610 (992)
└ Spurs leg	Spursavg 52¢	$107.55	$111.69	+$4.14
└ Bulls leg	Bullsavg 47¢	$111.27	$108.9	-$2.37
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bullsavg 47¢	$162.75	$159.29	-$3.46	70% 1671-717 (2388)
0xheavy888CTR	Bullsavg 46¢	$115	$115	+$0	55% 205-165 (370)
LI LimousinCTR	Bullsavg 48¢	$105.86	$101.45	-$4.41	30% 399-910 (1309)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$54.05	$52.9	-$1.15	67% 1661-813 (2474)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spursavg 52¢	$52.75	$51.26	+$0.81	49% 684-724 (1408)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Bullsavg 47¢	$9.75	$9.65	-$0.1	33% 317-631 (948)

TMingchan

Spurs

Invested

$7,829.12

Value

$7.9K

PnL

+$73.86

Record

23%

11-36 (47)

RJW1

Spurs

Invested

$7,111.79

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$131.97

Record

47%

118-132 (250)

Siddhartha1

Spurs

Invested

$5,833.33

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$55.03

Record

60%

94-62 (156)

nehcnehcCTR

Bulls

Invested

$4,730.88

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$197.12

Record

25%

21-63 (84)

vibing123

Spurs

Invested

$2,602.51

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$100.1

Record

63%

1099-655 (1754)

MadridTimeCTR

Bulls

Invested

$2,281.95

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$72.83

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

rafaleaoo

Spurs

Invested

$2,120

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$40

Record

14-633 (647)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$2,182.63

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$32.41

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Both legs:

Bulls$1,699.4647.4¢-$50.99

Spurs$483.1752¢+$18.58

VeryLucky888

Spurs

Invested

$2,001.81

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$5.46

Record

52%

490-447 (937)

NM-PARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$721.03

Value

$720.75

PnL

-$0.27

Record

59%

3478-2368 (5846)

Both legs:

Spurs$463.7553¢+$4.38

Bulls$257.2847.4¢-$4.65

GC-PARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$712.25

Value

$712.25

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

99-382 (481)

Both legs:

Spurs$463.7553¢+$4.38

Bulls$248.547.3¢-$4.38

38791873984189ARB<$100

Spurs

Invested

$610.65

Value

$612.05

PnL

+$1.4

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Spurs$343.752.8¢+$4.24

Bulls$266.9647¢-$2.84

dv-pmCTR

Bulls

Invested

$613.32

Value

$587.77

PnL

-$25.56

Record

—

6-5 (11)

VenusianCTR

Bulls

Invested

$483.17

Value

$477.63

PnL

-$5.54

Record

31%

407-907 (1314)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Bulls

Invested

$376

Value

$368

PnL

-$8

Record

15%

148-841 (989)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Bulls

Invested

$283.05

Value

$286.13

PnL

+$3.08

Record

51%

3720-3550 (7270)

sentrioARB<$100

Bulls

Invested

$218.82

Value

$220.59

PnL

+$1.77

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

Both legs:

Spurs$107.5552¢+$4.14

Bulls$111.2747¢-$2.37

SunlineTickerCTR

Bulls

Invested

$162.75

Value

$159.29

PnL

-$3.46

Record

70%

1671-717 (2388)

0xheavy888CTR

Bulls

Invested

$115

Value

$115

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

205-165 (370)

LimousinCTR

Bulls

Invested

$105.86

Value

$101.45

PnL

-$4.41

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

RLWGCTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$54.05

Value

$52.9

PnL

-$1.15

Record

67%

1661-813 (2474)

Pan9X<$100

Spurs

Invested

$52.75

Value

$51.26

PnL

+$0.81

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Bulls

Invested

$9.75

Value

$9.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

33%

317-631 (948)

Research grade

AvoidSpurs at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spurs

7 of 18 top traders (39%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Spurs. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrBulls 92% · 12

Diverging

Top 1000Bulls 75% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spurs wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.