Wizards vs. Pistons

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Pistons (79%) · Pistons at 81¢ · $55K held · ends Nov 10

Wizards20¢Pistons80¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pistons

Consensus Traders

Pistons 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$55.0K

Combined PnL

$73.23

Smart Money Entry

80.3¢ → 80.5¢

+0% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wizards20%

Pistons81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wizards5 traders

Total Value$10.0K

Total Shares51,188

Combined PnL-$81.18

Pistons19 traders

Total Value$44.5K

Total Shares54,764

Combined PnL+$154.42

Wizards — 21%Pistons — 79%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MI MigRodrCTR	Wizardsavg 19.7¢	$10.0K	$9.9K	-$78.32	—
VeryLucky888	Pistonsavg 80.6¢	$9.3K	$9.0K	-$1.91	—
HO HomeRunHazard	Pistonsavg 80.5¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$2.41	—
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Pistonsavg 80¢	$7.9K	$8.0K	+$49.56	—
HI hi774c	Pistonsavg 80¢	$7.8K	$7.8K	+$48.7	—
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Pistonsavg 80¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$24.41	—
DA darkumbreon88	Pistonsavg 80¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$19.58	—
NM NM-P	Pistonsavg 80.5¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$3.75	—
GC GC-P	Pistonsavg 80.4¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$8.59	—
38 38791873984189	Pistonsavg 80.3¢	$1.2K	$911.92	+$5.54	—
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Pistonsavg 81¢	$510.87	$553.78	-$0.85	—
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 81¢	$403.15	$400.66	-$2.49
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 19¢	$149.19	$153.12	+$1.63
nigiri99	Pistonsavg 82¢	$478.34	$473.66	-$4.68	—
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Pistonsavg 81¢	$324	$322	-$2	—
RN1	Pistonsavg 80¢	$200	$201.25	+$1.25	—
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Pistonsavg 81¢	$99.99	$99.38	-$0.62	—
0xheavy888<$100	Pistonsavg 80.8¢	$64.6	$64.4	-$0.2	—
OD Oddstorm<$100	Pistonsavg 81¢	$44.51	$49.05	-$0.2	—
PA Pan9X<$100	Pistonsavg 80.2¢	$48.09	$48.3	+$0.21	—
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 20¢	$45.6	$42.18	-$3.42	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pistonsavg 81¢	$16.2	$16.1	-$0.1	—
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 19¢	$9.1	$8.86	-$0.24	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 18¢	$11.05	$6.3	+$0.78	—
AC Aceplus3<$100	Pistonsavg 82¢	$12	$6	-$0.06	61% 49-31 (80)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Pistonsavg 78¢	$3.94	$4.12	+$0.18	51% 6120-5875 (11995)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Wizardsavg 18¢	$5	$0.93	+$0.03	51% 28858-28213 (57071)

MigRodrCTR

Wizards

Invested

$9,999

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$78.32

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Pistons

Invested

$9,331.12

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$1.91

Record

—

HomeRunHazard

Pistons

Invested

$7,996.82

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$2.41

Record

—

Multicoloured-Serf

Pistons

Invested

$7,929.79

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$49.56

Record

—

hi774c

Pistons

Invested

$7,792.23

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$48.7

Record

—

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Pistons

Invested

$3,906.36

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$24.41

Record

—

darkumbreon88

Pistons

Invested

$3,132.81

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$19.58

Record

—

NM-P

Pistons

Invested

$1,252.49

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$3.75

Record

—

GC-P

Pistons

Invested

$1,093.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$8.59

Record

—

38791873984189

Pistons

Invested

$1,213.25

Value

$911.92

PnL

+$5.54

Record

—

SnakeBallARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$510.87

Value

$553.78

PnL

-$0.85

Record

—

Both legs:

Pistons$403.1581¢-$2.49

Wizards$149.1919¢+$1.63

nigiri99

Pistons

Invested

$478.34

Value

$473.66

PnL

-$4.68

Record

—

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Pistons

Invested

$324

Value

$322

PnL

-$2

Record

—

RN1

Pistons

Invested

$200

Value

$201.25

PnL

+$1.25

Record

—

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Pistons

Invested

$99.99

Value

$99.38

PnL

-$0.62

Record

—

0xheavy888<$100

Pistons

Invested

$64.6

Value

$64.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

Oddstorm<$100

Pistons

Invested

$44.51

Value

$49.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

—

Pan9X<$100

Pistons

Invested

$48.09

Value

$48.3

PnL

+$0.21

Record

—

VenusianCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$45.6

Value

$42.18

PnL

-$3.42

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pistons

Invested

$16.2

Value

$16.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

LimousinCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$9.1

Value

$8.86

PnL

-$0.24

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

$11.05

Value

$6.3

PnL

+$0.78

Record

—

Aceplus3<$100

Pistons

Invested

$12

Value

PnL

-$0.06

Record

61%

49-31 (80)

6512395314597884<$100

Pistons

Invested

$3.94

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.18

Record

51%

6120-5875 (11995)

sentrioCTR<$100

Wizards

Invested

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.03

Record

51%

28858-28213 (57071)

Research grade

AvoidPistons at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Pistons

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pistons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.