Spread: Pistons (-9.5)

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Wizards (67%) · Wizards at 52¢ · $755K held · ends Nov 10

Pistons49¢Wizards51¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wizards

Consensus Traders

Wizards 67%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$754.8K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

10 of 15 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pistons49%

Wizards52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Pistons5 traders

Total Value$337.1K

Total Shares694,970

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Wizards10 traders

Total Value$393.8K

Total Shares753,210

Combined PnL+$9.5K

Pistons — 33%Wizards — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (13 on Pistons) disagree here.

sniperWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO googleplayCTR	Pistonsavg 49¢	$339.4K	$336.0K	$-3.4K	3% 1-30 (31)
BR BreakTheBank	Wizardsavg 51¢	$284.8K	$293.2K	+$8.4K	40% 333-506 (839)
RO robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18	Wizardsavg 51¢	$51.5K	$52.0K	+$504.87	0% 0-105 (105)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Wizardsavg 51¢	$17.4K	$17.3K	+$487.36	2% 3-120 (123)
TM TMingchan	Wizardsavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.3K	+$100	— 2-15 (17)
MU Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48.3¢	$9.4K	$9.5K	+$62.31	3% 4-156 (160)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.3¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$24.05
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	+$38.26
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Wizardsavg 51¢	$9.2K	$9.3K	+$30.53	30% 29-67 (96)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$6.7K	$6.9K	+$202.44
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$171.91
SI Siddhartha1	Wizardsavg 51¢	$6.7K	$6.7K	+$65.36	44% 34-43 (77)
UB ubetteruuuu	Wizardsavg 52¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$58	5% 4-77 (81)
VeryLucky888	Wizardsavg 51.2¢	$5.1K	$4.0K	-$60	48% 61-65 (126)
FE fekefee	Wizardsavg 52¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$36.31	0% 0-28 (28)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$7.1	6% 11-164 (175)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.8¢	$903.48	$897.23	-$6.25
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$628.7	$627.86	-$0.85
GC GC-PARB<$100	Pistonsavg 48.7¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$3.38	5% 11-190 (201)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 48.7¢	$778.49	$775.99	-$2.5
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$631.75	$630.88	-$0.88
nigiri99CTR	Pistonsavg 48¢	$958.08	$968.06	+$9.98	42% 28-38 (66)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 49.8¢	$969.09	$877.63	-$14.67	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49.8¢	$481.09	$478.17	-$5.8
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51.6¢	$408.32	$399.46	-$8.87
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 51.5¢	$770	$742.5	-$37.5	47% 82-92 (174)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51.5¢	$515	$485	-$40
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$255	$257.5	+$2.5
RN1ARB<$100	Wizardsavg 49.6¢	$497.45	$505.25	+$7.8	54% 235-203 (438)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 49.6¢	$374.95	$381.5	+$6.55
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 49¢	$122.5	$123.75	+$1.25
SU SunlineTicker	Wizardsavg 50.8¢	$500.64	$498.03	-$2.61	4% 5-123 (128)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 51¢	$81.09	$75.52	-$5.57	5% 4-79 (83)
BI biying99999ARB<$100	Pistonsavg 51¢	$59.16	$58	-$1.16	6% 2-34 (36)
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 51¢	$29.58	$30.45	+$0.87
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 51¢	$29.58	$27.55	-$2.03
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Pistonsavg 50.2¢	$115.4	$48.98	-$2.55	48% 174-190 (364)
└ Pistons leg	Pistonsavg 50.2¢	$25.62	$25.25	-$2.36
└ Wizards leg	Wizardsavg 50¢	$23.51	$23.74	-$0.18
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 51.6¢	$25.8	$23.75	-$2.05	67% 29-14 (43)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pistonsavg 52.5¢	$6.17	$5.76	-$0.41	19% 44-191 (235)
SE sentrio<$100	Wizardsavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.63	+$0.38	23% 49-166 (215)

googleplayCTR

Pistons

Invested

$339,429.19

Value

$336.0K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

1-30 (31)

BreakTheBank

Wizards

Invested

$284,804.91

Value

$293.2K

PnL

+$8.4K

Record

40%

333-506 (839)

robloxgamblemaster-2008-10-18

Wizards

Invested

$51,497.24

Value

$52.0K

PnL

+$504.87

Record

0-105 (105)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Wizards

Invested

$17,404.62

Value

$17.3K

PnL

+$487.36

Record

3-120 (123)

TMingchan

Wizards

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$100

Record

—

2-15 (17)

Multicoloured-SerfARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$9,418.23

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$62.31

Record

4-156 (160)

Both legs:

Pistons$5,515.2348.3¢+$24.05

Wizards$3,90351¢+$38.26

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Wizards

Invested

$9,231.16

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$30.53

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Both legs:

Wizards$6,726.1651¢+$202.44

Pistons$2,50551¢-$171.91

Siddhartha1

Wizards

Invested

$6,666.7

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$65.36

Record

44%

34-43 (77)

ubetteruuuu

Wizards

Invested

$6,032

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$58

Record

4-77 (81)

VeryLucky888

Wizards

Invested

$5,120

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$60

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

fekefee

Wizards

Invested

$3,776.24

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$36.31

Record

0-28 (28)

NM-PARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,532.18

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$7.1

Record

11-164 (175)

Both legs:

Pistons$903.4848.8¢-$6.25

Wizards$628.751.6¢-$0.85

GC-PARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$1,410.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$3.38

Record

11-190 (201)

Both legs:

Pistons$778.4948.7¢-$2.5

Wizards$631.7551.6¢-$0.88

nigiri99CTR

Pistons

Invested

$958.08

Value

$968.06

PnL

+$9.98

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$969.09

Value

$877.63

PnL

-$14.67

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Pistons$481.0949.8¢-$5.8

Wizards$408.3251.6¢-$8.87

Anon455ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$770

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$37.5

Record

47%

82-92 (174)

Both legs:

Invested

$497.45

Value

$505.25

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

235-203 (438)

Both legs:

Wizards$374.9549.6¢+$6.55

Pistons$122.549¢+$1.25

SunlineTicker

Wizards

Invested

$500.64

Value

$498.03

PnL

-$2.61

Record

5-123 (128)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$81.09

Value

$75.52

PnL

-$5.57

Record

4-79 (83)

biying99999ARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$59.16

Value

$58

PnL

-$1.16

Record

2-34 (36)

Both legs:

Wizards$29.5851¢+$0.87

Pistons$29.5851¢-$2.03

Pan9XARB<$100

Pistons

Invested

$115.4

Value

$48.98

PnL

-$2.55

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

Both legs:

Pistons$25.6250.2¢-$2.36

Wizards$23.5150¢-$0.18

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$25.8

Value

$23.75

PnL

-$2.05

Record

67%

29-14 (43)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pistons

Invested

$6.17

Value

$5.76

PnL

-$0.41

Record

19%

44-191 (235)

sentrio<$100

Wizards

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.63

PnL

+$0.38

Record

23%

49-166 (215)

Research grade

AvoidWizards at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Wizards

10 of 15 top traders (67%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Wizards. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Wizards) and the top 1000 (13 on Pistons) disagree here.

sniperWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPistons 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedWizards 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Pistons 62% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wizards wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.