Spread: Saints (-4.5)

15 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (54%) · Browns at 70¢ · $73K held · ended Nov 8

Saints31¢Browns69¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 54%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$72.6K

Combined PnL

$9.9K

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 69.5¢

+31% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

15 of 28 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints31%

Browns70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns15 traders

Total Value$42.4K

Total Shares65,226

Combined PnL+$8.9K

Saints13 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares48,428

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Browns — 54%Saints — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrBrowns 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GL glennyorkshire	Brownsavg 49.1¢	$22.6K	$20.9K	+$7.7K	46% 232-268 (500)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Brownsavg 60.1¢	$8.1K	$9.6K	+$1.5K	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Saintsavg 51.5¢	$15.1K	$8.1K	+$303.75	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Saintsavg 47¢	$5.9K	$6.7K	+$814.27	49% 516-547 (1063)
PL pleasent242	Brownsavg 53¢	$6.6K	$6.0K	-$625	52% 716-665 (1381)
VeryLucky888CTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$7.5K	$3.7K	-$112.5	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
nigiri99CTR	Saintsavg 51.6¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$41.08	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
RN1ARB<$100	Brownsavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.5K	+$261.56	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.7K	+$421.05
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 34.6¢	$904.1	$744.61	-$159.49
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Saintsavg 50.5¢	$7.2K	$2.3K	-$369.51	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 48.1¢	$853.86	$1.3K	+$452.95
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50.5¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$822.46
BO Bozos14	Brownsavg 49¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$62.46	50% 155-156 (311)
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 51.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$232.29	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
JU justaluckydude	Brownsavg 61.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$24.14	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Saintsavg 50.8¢	$801.38	$802.98	+$1.61	50% 48547-48163 (96710)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Brownsavg 69.5¢	$695	$710	+$15	57% 17052-13027 (30079)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Brownsavg 56.4¢	$627.42	$649.12	+$21.7	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 56.4¢	$397.77	$489.97	+$92.2
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 44¢	$229.65	$159.15	-$70.5
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$490.5	$594.05	+$103.55	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Saintsavg 31.1¢	$500.65	$442.06	-$58.58	46% 33351-38883 (72234)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Saintsavg 31¢	$457.29	$420.41	-$36.88	53% 6640-5923 (12563)
NM NM-PCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$520.44	$281.8	+$16.99	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
GC GC-PCTR	Saintsavg 51¢	$500	$272.5	+$17.5	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
VE VenusianCTR	Saintsavg 48¢	$215.85	$222.03	+$6.18	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Brownsavg 52¢	$212	$202	-$10	50% 2205-2180 (4385)
AV averagejoetraders	Brownsavg 45¢	$91.2	$122.98	+$31.78	55% 681-557 (1238)
PA Pan9X	Brownsavg 56.8¢	$128.8	$122.62	+$25.68	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Brownsavg 46¢	$87.52	$115.41	+$27.89	53% 685-609 (1294)

glennyorkshire

Browns

Invested

$22,593.77

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$7.7K

Record

46%

232-268 (500)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Browns

Invested

$8,119.13

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Saints

Invested

$15,060.06

Value

$8.1K

PnL

+$303.75

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Saints

Invested

$5,886.07

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$814.27

Record

49%

516-547 (1063)

pleasent242

Browns

Invested

$6,625

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$625

Record

52%

716-665 (1381)

VeryLucky888CTR

Saints

Invested

$7,500

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$112.5

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

nigiri99CTR

Saints

Invested

$3,232.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$41.08

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

RN1ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$2,203.34

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$261.56

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

Both legs:

Browns$1,299.2454¢+$421.05

Saints$904.134.6¢-$159.49

38791873984189ARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$7,162.29

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$369.51

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

Both legs:

Browns$853.8648.1¢+$452.95

Saints$1,795.1850.5¢-$822.46

Bozos14

Browns

Invested

$1,530.27

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$62.46

Record

50%

155-156 (311)

Anon455

Browns

Invested

$1,352.9

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$232.29

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

justaluckydude

Browns

Invested

$1,329.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$24.14

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

SnakeBallCTR

Saints

Invested

$801.38

Value

$802.98

PnL

+$1.61

Record

50%

48547-48163 (96710)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Browns

Invested

$695

Value

$710

PnL

+$15

Record

57%

17052-13027 (30079)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$627.42

Value

$649.12

PnL

+$21.7

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Browns$397.7756.4¢+$92.2

Saints$229.6544¢-$70.5

SunlineTickerCTR

Saints

Invested

$490.5

Value

$594.05

PnL

+$103.55

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Saints

Invested

$500.65

Value

$442.06

PnL

-$58.58

Record

46%

33351-38883 (72234)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Saints

Invested

$457.29

Value

$420.41

PnL

-$36.88

Record

53%

6640-5923 (12563)

NM-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$520.44

Value

$281.8

PnL

+$16.99

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

GC-PCTR

Saints

Invested

$500

Value

$272.5

PnL

+$17.5

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

VenusianCTR

Saints

Invested

$215.85

Value

$222.03

PnL

+$6.18

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Browns

Invested

$212

Value

$202

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

2205-2180 (4385)

averagejoetraders

Browns

Invested

$91.2

Value

$122.98

PnL

+$31.78

Record

55%

681-557 (1238)

Pan9X

Browns

Invested

$128.8

Value

$122.62

PnL

+$25.68

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

oxe78sh4w98

Browns

Invested

$87.52

Value

$115.41

PnL

+$27.89

Record

53%

685-609 (1294)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 70%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

15 of 28 top traders (54%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 83% · 6

Diverging

ctrBrowns 50% · 16

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 60% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.